Betting markets show increased optimism for Dogecoin ETF approval

Dogecoin Spot ETF Shows Increased Probability of Approval

Betting markets indicate a significant surge in the likelihood of a spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF being approved. Polymarket data reveals a 74% chance of approval by the end of 2025, a remarkable 37% increase since Donald Trump's inauguration.

Approval by July 31st carries a slightly higher probability of 35%, despite a 13% rise. The renewed demand for a Dogecoin ETF stems from the SEC acknowledging Grayscale's applications for spot DOGE and XRP ETFs. This marks a departure from the past, where cryptocurrency ETFs faced stringent approval processes, with Bitcoin as the sole exception.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests this recognition signifies regulators' growing acceptance of cryptocurrency-based products. Business journalist Eleanor Terrett reports that the SEC appears more favorable now than in December, when exchanges withdrew Solana ETF applications due to uncertain regulations.

However, legal challenges could still impede the approval process. Bloomberg's James Seyffart highlights that cases like Ripple vs. SEC may influence decisions on crypto ETFs. While Dogecoin faces no such issues, broader regulatory concerns remain.

Bitwise's Matthew Hougan notes that meme coin ETFs require a liquid market with minimal centralized influence. Unlike other meme tokens, Dogecoin boasts an active community and usage, enhancing its prospects for ETF approval.

Hougan, however, dismisses the notion that DOGE's approval will pave the way for other meme coin ETFs, such as SHIB, emphasizing that approvals will be granted on a case-by-case basis.

Grayscale's Role in DOGE Trust Formation

Grayscale's establishment of a Dogecoin trust was a major step towards an ETF. Despite the trust's limited liquidity due to its cryptocurrency ownership, ETFs offer greater access to real-time trading. Rex Osprey and Bitwise have also filed for Dogecoin ETFs, reflecting the growing demand for regulated meme coin products.

Market analysts are closely monitoring the SEC's approval, as it could signal DOGE's transition from a meme coin to a mainstream investment vehicle. Some speculate that Trump, influenced by Elon Musk, may initiate a Strategic Dogecoin Reserve, though Polymarket bettors assess this probability at only 10%.

Currently, DOGE trades at $0.26, with a weekly loss of approximately 2.3%. Analysts predict potential price increases to $4, supported by technical indicators. A突破0.35美元的阻力位可能带来新的历史新高。