Dogecoin price is in a bear market: how low can DOGE fall?

Dogecoin Price Plummets amid Crypto Market Sell-Off

Dogecoin (DOGE) has faced a precipitous decline in recent days, reaching its lowest level since November 11th. The cryptocurrency has lost nearly 45% from its monthly high, signaling a severe bearish trend.

Factors Contributing to the Crash

Dogecoin's crash is attributed to escalating apprehension within the crypto industry, fueling panic selling among investors. Cryptocurrency remains highly susceptible to volatility due to its predominantly retail investor base with shorter investment horizons.

Wyckoff Method Analysis

DOGE's retracement suggests it has entered the markdown phase of the Wyckoff Method, after a prolonged distribution phase. The Wyckoff Model identifies four distinct phases: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.

Phases of the Wyckoff Model

In the case of Dogecoin:

• Accumulation phase: Limited price fluctuation from April to November.
• Markup phase: Parabolic rise driven by increased demand surpassing supply.
• Distribution phase: Price stabilization as informed investors sold.
• Markdown phase (current): Excess supply over demand leads to panic selling.

Influence of Elon Musk's Initiative

Dogecoin's decline has also been influenced by skepticism toward Elon Musk's "Department of Government Efficiency" initiative. Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's proposal to slash government spending by over $2 trillion has met with skepticism from analysts, who argue such measures face substantial regulatory and political obstacles in the government context.

Technical Price Analysis

DOGE's price peaked at $0.4853, a key level near the overshoot of the Murrey Math lines tool. It has since fallen beneath the 50-day moving average and the strong pivot release.

Potential Support and Resistance Levels

• $0.2293: Highest swing in March and aligns with the cup and handle pattern's horizontal line.
• $0.1953: Major support/resistance pivot, approximately 30% below the current price.

Caution against Dead Cat Bounce

Investors should be wary of a potential dead cat bounce when considering purchasing a dip. This phenomenon occurs when an asset momentarily rises within a downtrend before resuming its decline.