Will Dogecoin Price Defy Bearish Fractal Theories & Stage A Rally?

Dogecoin's price performance in 2025 has been volatile, prompting questions about its future trajectory. While it initially showed strong gains during the current bull cycle, a significant correction followed. Analysts remain divided on whether this meme coin will rebound or continue its downward trend.

Dogecoin's Price Decline: Over 32% Since January 1st

Despite a bullish start to 2025, Dogecoin's price has since retraced by over 32%. Among the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, only Avalanche (AVAX) fared worse. This downturn has worried investors who were optimistic following Dogecoin's strong rally in 2024.

The price drop follows a period of volatility, with rapid gains in November and December, subsequently hitting resistance. This correction mirrors broader market trends, but Dogecoin's underperformance relative to other major assets has drawn increased scrutiny. Its price is heavily reliant on speculation and external factors, such as celebrity endorsements, making it vulnerable to market shifts.

Dogecoin Price: Following XRP's 2021 Pattern?

Market analyst Tony Severino notes similarities between Dogecoin's current price action and XRP's performance in 2021. His analysis suggests a fractal pattern mirroring XRP's historical price chart, hinting at a cyclical peak for Dogecoin.

Furthermore, Severino points out Dogecoin's failure to hold above the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level at $0.4198 – a level XRP also struggled with in early 2021. This rejection led to a subsequent over 56% drop for Dogecoin, echoing XRP's correction. This pattern fuels speculation that Dogecoin may follow a similar trajectory, limiting its upside potential in the current market cycle.

Growing Institutional Interest

Despite price concerns, Dogecoin continues to attract institutional interest. Grayscale and Bitwise have both filed for Dogecoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This signifies growing interest in bridging cryptocurrencies with traditional investment markets.

Grayscale's proposal is currently under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Approval of a Dogecoin ETF could attract more institutional investors, potentially increasing demand for Dogecoin. This aligns with a broader trend of increased institutional exposure to cryptocurrencies, following recent approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Recent analysis suggests a buy signal for Dogecoin from the TD Sequential indicator, potentially indicating a price increase. Furthermore, whale activity, including recent purchases of 140 million DOGE, coupled with price increases, suggests further market positivity and the potential for upward price movement.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.2075, up 2.63% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a recent upward trend with increased market activity.