Why is Solana's Dogwifhat (WIF) memecoin crashing?

Dogwifhat (WIF) Faces Potential Market Dip

Dogwifhat (WIF), the fourth-largest memecoin by market capitalization, has experienced a significant drop in value since its peak in early August. As of August 17th, WIF has lost approximately 30% from its local top of around $1.95, reaching a price of $1.36.

WIF Declines Alongside Other Memecoins

WIF's price decline is consistent with similar downturns in other popular memecoins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE). Dogecoin, the largest memecoin, has dipped by approximately 10% in the past nine days.

Significant Losses for WIF

Among the leading memecoins, WIF has incurred more notable losses over weekly and monthly periods. Its 30-day returns are around -42%, significantly exceeding those of DOGE (-15%) and SHIB (-23.5%).

Exceptional Year-to-Date Performance

Despite its recent decline, WIF has had an exceptional year-to-date performance, with returns of approximately 708%. This growth is second only to Popcat (POPCAT), another Solana-based token that has surged by around 4,570%. These substantial gains may have attracted profit-taking from early investors, leading to increased selling pressure.

Long Liquidations Outnumber Shorts

The 30% correction in WIF's price coincides with a higher number of long liquidations in the WIF futures market compared to short liquidations. According to Coinglass data, there have been cumulative long liquidations of $6.932 million versus $3.16 million in short liquidations over the past nine days.

Bullish Expectations Contribute to Liquidations

This data suggests that many traders were overly optimistic about WIF, expecting the price to continue rising after its peak on August 9th. They opened leveraged long positions in the futures market, betting on further price increases.

As WIF's price began to decline, it triggered margin calls for these over-leveraged long positions. Forced selling by traders unable to meet these margin calls has amplified the downward pressure on the price, contributing to the 30% correction.

WIF Price Bottoming Out?

WIF's downside risks remain due to the formation of a potential head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern. An H&S pattern indicates a reversal in the market trend and could result in a further decline in price.

As of August 17th, WIF has attempted to break below its H&S neckline level of around $1.46. If successful, its price may fall towards the downside target of around $0.725 by September, a 48% drop from current levels.

Conversely, if WIF reclaims the neckline as support and closes above its accumulation area ($1.48-$1.69), it could invalidate the H&S setup. In this case, WIF's potential upside targets would be around its 50-day (red wave) and 200-day (blue wave) exponential moving averages.

Disclaimer: This article provides information only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.