The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing uncertainty, largely dependent on the upcoming decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. With Bitcoin trading below $85,000 and the market's fear and greed index plummeting to 23, investors are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. All eyes are on Jerome Powell.

加密貨幣市場目前正經歷不確定性，很大程度上取決於美國美聯儲即將做出的決定。 隨著比特幣的交易低於85,000美元，市場的恐懼和貪婪指數暴跌至23個，投資者焦急地等待聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議的結果。 所有人的目光都注視著杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）。

Markets Under Pressure Awaiting the Fed's Decision

在壓力下等待美聯儲決定的市場

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have shown increased volatility in recent days, reflecting growing investor nervousness. This morning, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $83,000 before recovering slightly to around $83,450. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have also experienced minor fluctuations. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, notes that Bitcoin's recent 0.2% drop to approximately $83,000 mirrors a broader decline in the crypto market, affecting Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin as well. This downturn occurs as gold surpasses $3,000 an ounce, and markets await the FOMC's decision. While Bitcoin has historically shown correlation with gold as a macroeconomic hedge, its current divergence (falling while gold rises) suggests it's behaving more like a risk asset, influenced by uncertainty surrounding Fed monetary policy, profit-taking, and a shift towards traditional safe havens. The FOMC meeting's outcome could either spur a rebound with a flexible stance or deepen the correction with a restrictive one, making Bitcoin's short-term performance increasingly tied to global economic indicators rather than its role as "digital gold."

比特幣和其他主要加密貨幣最近幾天的波動性增加，反映了投資者的緊張感。 今天早上，比特幣短暫降至83,000美元以下，然後稍微恢復到83,450美元左右。 以太坊，索拉納和XRP也經歷了微小的波動。 Bitget Research的首席分析師瑞安·李（Ryan Lee）指出，比特幣最近的0.2％下降到約83,000美元，反映了加密貨幣市場的更大下降，也影響了Solana，XRP和Dogecoin。 由於黃金超過每盎司3,000美元，而且市場等待著FOMC的決定，因此這種低迷的發生。儘管比特幣歷來顯示與黃金作為宏觀經濟對沖的相關性，但其目前的差異（黃金上升而下降）表明它的行為更像是風險資產，受到圍繞美聯儲的貨幣政策的不確定性的影響，利潤賺錢，以及向傳統的安全避風港轉移。 FOMC會議的結果可能會以靈活的姿態刺激反彈，或者通過限制性措施加深糾正，這使得比特幣的短期績效越來越與全球經濟指標相關，而不是其作為“數字黃金”的作用。

The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is the key concern for investors. While the consensus expects rates to remain between 4.25% and 4.5%, Powell's remarks will be crucial. Three potential scenarios are causing investor anxiety:

美聯儲對利率的立場是投資者的關鍵問題。儘管共識預計利率將保持4.25％至4.5％，但鮑威爾的言論將是至關重要的。 三種潛在的情況引起了投資者的焦慮：

• Maintaining rates and a cautious tone: The Fed might choose to maintain a neutral stance, reiterating that rates will remain high as long as necessary to combat inflation.
• Signaling monetary easing: A suggestion of an earlier-than-expected rate cut could boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• A stricter-than-expected speech: A firm stance reaffirming no rate cuts before mid-2025 could trigger capital flight from the crypto market, leading to a significant price correction.

The Fed chairman has already stated that an immediate rate cut is not anticipated, citing persistent inflation and economic fragility. However, even a subtle shift in tone could significantly impact the markets. Investors are closely monitoring any indication of a change in the Fed's course.

保持速率和謹慎的語氣：美聯儲可能會選擇保持中立的立場，重申速度將保持很高，只要需要打擊通貨膨脹，便會降低貨幣的信號：提示較早的預期降低率的建議可以提高風險資產，這可以促進比特幣，包括比特幣的季度。聯邦政府主席已經指出，沒有預期的立即降低稅率，理由是持續的通貨膨脹和經濟脆弱性。但是，即使是音調的細微轉變也會顯著影響市場。 投資者正在密切監視美聯儲課程發生變化的任何跡象。

A Crypto Market at a Crossroads

十字路口的加密市場

A firm and restrictive Fed stance could push the market further downward, as investors shift towards safer investments like bonds. Many analysts fear a liquidity squeeze, which would disproportionately affect risk assets like Bitcoin. A report from QCP Capital notes a shift in financial flows towards European and Asian markets, indicating capital movement away from tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

隨著投資者轉向債券等更安全的投資，公司和限制性的美聯儲立場可能會進一步推動市場。 許多分析人士擔心流動性緊縮，這會不成比例地影響像比特幣這樣的風險資產。 QCP Capital的一份報告指出，金融流向歐洲和亞洲市場的轉變，表明資本轉移遠離技術股票和加密貨幣。

Conversely, if Powell hints at potential monetary easing sooner than expected, the crypto market could experience a sharp rebound. The recent decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 3.1% to 2.8% might support this possibility. If the Fed suggests rate cuts before mid-2025, Bitcoin and altcoins could benefit, attracting investors seeking higher returns.

相反，如果鮑威爾暗示潛在的貨幣寬鬆比預期的要早，那麼加密貨幣市場可能會經歷急劇的反彈。最近，消費者價格指數（CPI）從3.1％下降到2.8％可能會支持這種可能性。 如果美聯儲建議在2025年中期之前削減稅率，那麼比特幣和山寨幣可能會受益，吸引尋求更高回報的投資者。

Powell's remarks will significantly influence market movements in the coming hours, with potentially dramatic consequences. A conciliatory approach could usher in a new bullish trend and increase crypto's appeal as a safe haven during potential economic stimulus. Conversely, a hardline stance could initiate a new correction phase, testing the market's resilience against inflexible monetary policy.

鮑威爾的言論將在未來幾個小時內顯著影響市場變動，並帶來巨大的後果。一種和解的方法可以引入新的看漲趨勢，並在潛在的經濟刺激下提高加密貨幣作為避風港的吸引力。 相反，硬線立場可以啟動新的更正階段，從而測試市場對不靈活的貨幣政策的彈性。