Dogecoin Open Interest Surges, Raising Concerns

狗狗币持仓量激增，引发担忧

Dogecoin (DOGE) futures open interest reached an all-time high of $4.6 billion on November 23, surpassing the previous record by a significant margin. This surge indicates increased leverage demand, despite the current price being 35% below its May 2021 peak of $0.74.

狗狗币（DOGE）期货未平仓合约于 11 月 23 日创下 46 亿美元的历史新高，大幅超越之前的纪录。尽管目前的价格比 2021 年 5 月的峰值 0.74 美元低了 35%，但这种飙升表明杠杆需求增加。

Traders express concern that the recent 224% rally in DOGE may have been driven by derivatives, potentially signaling a cycle top similar to the price action observed in April 2024.

交易员担心 DOGE 最近 224% 的上涨可能是由衍生品推动的，这可能预示着类似于 2024 年 4 月观察到的价格走势的周期顶部。

DOGE Open Interest vs. Elon Musk Influence

DOGE 未平仓合约 vs. 埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 影响力

To evaluate potential risks, it is crucial to examine the funding rate of perpetual contracts. A neutral funding rate, as observed over the past month, suggests that leverage demand is balanced. The recent spike on November 23 was not indicative of typical costs due to the eight-hour reset period.

为了评估潜在风险，考察永续合约的资金费率至关重要。过去一个月观察到的中性融资利率表明杠杆需求是平衡的。由于 8 小时重置期，11 月 23 日的近期峰值并不代表典型成本。

Unlike previous DOGE price surges, this recent movement was primarily driven by spot market activity. While impressive, DOGE's 161% rally through November 25 lagged behind other "dinosaur coins" such as Stellar, Cardano, and XRP.

与之前的 DOGE 价格飙升不同，最近的走势主要是由现货市场活动推动的。虽然令人印象深刻，但 DOGE 截至 11 月 25 日的涨幅为 161%，落后于 Stellar、Cardano 和 XRP 等其他“恐龙币”。

It remains unclear whether the increased leverage demand for DOGE is aligned with the gains in these altcoins. However, Elon Musk's frequent social media posts about his initiative related to the newly elected US government may decouple Dogecoin from other cryptocurrencies.

目前尚不清楚 DOGE 杠杆需求的增加是否与这些山寨币的收益一致。然而，埃隆·马斯克频繁在社交媒体上发布有关他与新当选的美国政府有关的倡议的帖子，可能会使狗狗币与其他加密货币脱钩。

Given Dogecoin's unique community-driven nature and the popularity of its mascot, its price may continue to rise independently. Nevertheless, as long as leverage remains balanced, there is no immediate concern for cascading liquidations.

鉴于狗狗币独特的社区驱动性质及其吉祥物的受欢迎程度，其价格可能会继续独立上涨。然而，只要杠杆保持平衡，就不会立即担心级联清算。