Pepe Faces Strong Selling Pressure, but Uptrend Potential of 105%

Pepe 面临强劲抛售压力，但上涨潜力高达 105%

Technically, Pepe (PEPE) is facing significant downward pressure amid the ongoing bear market. Despite signs of increased adoption and decreasing exchange balances for this meme token, strong selling and a dominant bearish trend leave uncertainty in the air.

从技术上讲，佩佩（PEPE）在持续的熊市中面临着巨大的下行压力。尽管有迹象表明这种模因代币的采用率有所增加且交易余额有所减少，但强劲的抛售和占主导地位的看跌趋势仍然存在不确定性。

Selling Pressure

抛售压力

PEPE's selling pressure is in the context of a broader market decline. Just as today, in August 2024, the overall crypto market was down 2.1% in 24 hours, reflecting a negative sentiment impacting crypto assets. Bitcoin itself dropped 0.9%, despite positive net inflows into the Spot Bitcoin ETF. Pepe's strong correlation with Ethereum, which had a 2.9% price drop then, has also impacted it adversely.

PEPE 的抛售压力是在大盘下跌​​的背景下发生的。就像 2024 年 8 月的今天一样，整个加密货币市场在 24 小时内下跌了 2.1%，反映出影响加密资产的负面情绪。尽管现货比特币 ETF 出现净流入，但比特币本身还是下跌了 0.9%。 Pepe 与以太坊的强烈相关性（当时以太坊价格下跌了 2.9%）也对其产生了不利影响。

Exchange Outflows and Price Disconnect

外汇流出和价格脱节

On August 15, 2024, PEPE's exchange reserves decreased by 1.44 trillion tokens, worth around $10.89 million. Theoretically, this is often positive, indicating investors holding onto the asset for the medium to long term. However, despite the outflows, PEPE's price fell 4% within 24 hours, trading at $0.00000751. This highlights a disconnect between exchange outflow and price movement, potentially due to investors moving their PEPE tokens to other exchanges or decentralized exchanges for arbitrage opportunities.

2024年8月15日，PEPE的外汇储备减少了1.44万亿代币，价值约1089万美元。从理论上讲，这通常是积极的，表明投资者中长期持有该资产。然而，尽管资金流出，PEPE 的价格在 24 小时内下跌了 4%，交易价格为 0.00000751 美元。这凸显了交易所流出与价格变动之间的脱节，这可能是由于投资者将其 PEPE 代币转移到其他交易所或去中心化交易所以获得套利机会。

Open Interest and Funding Rate

未平仓利息和资金费率

Data from Coinglass shows a decline in open interest (OI) and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for PEPE. This indicates traders closing their long positions, potentially signaling potential losses as the funding rate (FR) is currently negative. A negative FR implies a lower price for PEPE in futures markets than in spot markets, leading to an increase in short positions and a possible downward spiral in price.

Coinglass 的数据显示 PEPE 的未平仓合约 (OI) 和累积交易量增量 (CVD) 有所下降。这表明交易者平仓了多头头寸，可能预示着由于资金利率（FR）目前为负值而可能造成损失。负 FR 意味着期货市场上的 PEPE 价格低于现货市场上的价格，导致空头头寸增加，价格可能出现螺旋式下降。

Adoption and Upside Potential

采用率和上升潜力

Despite the price decline, Pepe's adoption remains solid. Data from CoinCarp suggests an average of around 430 new holders daily over the past 30 days.

尽管价格下降，佩佩的采用率仍然很高。 CoinCarp 的数据显示，过去 30 天平均每天新增约 430 名新持有者。

However, technical analysis points to strong selling pressure. A recent bearish breakout from a symmetrical pattern, marked by a large red candlestick, confirms the continuation of the downtrend.

然而，技术分析表明抛售压力强劲。最近从对称形态的看跌突破（以大红色烛台为标志）证实了下降趋势的延续。

"PEPE price will likely find support at around $0.00000680-$0.00000700, which is the previous swing low. While selling pressure is strong, a potential bullish double-bottom reversal pattern could play out if the price bounces from these levels, targeting an upside move for PEPE of over 105% towards $0.00001280," said the analysts.

“PEPE 价格可能会在 0.00000680 美元至 0.00000700 美元左右找到支撑，这是之前的波动低点。虽然抛售压力很大，但如果价格从这些水平反弹，潜在的看涨双底反转模式可能会出现，目标是向上移动PEPE 超过 105%，接近 0.00001280 美元，”分析师表示。

Bollinger Bands and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also suggest an oversold condition with money flowing out of the asset, supporting the bearish outlook. However, if PEPE can find strong support and bounce from $0.00000650, a significant bullish reversal could be possible.

布林线和柴金资金流向（CMF）也表明资金流出该资产的超卖状况，支撑了看跌前景。然而，如果 PEPE 能够找到强劲支撑并从 0.00000650 美元反弹，则可能会出现重大看涨逆转。

Conclusion

结论

PEPE's current market position is complex. The continued price decline and strong selling indicate ongoing challenges amid the bearish market. However, increased adoption and potential technical reversals offer hope for a possible change in direction should market conditions become more favorable.

PEPE 目前的市场地位很复杂。价格持续下跌和强劲抛售表明熊市中持续存在挑战。然而，如果市场条件变得更加有利，采用率的增加和潜在的技术逆转为方向可能改变带来了希望。

For now, pressure on PEPE could persist, but the potential for recovery is there if the right conditions align. Yesterday's analysis by NewsBTC also supported this view, suggesting a risk of further declines if PEPE fails to break above a key resistance level. However, a strong bounce could lead to a significant retracement towards previous highs.

目前，PEPE 面临的压力可能会持续存在，但如果条件合适，复苏的潜力是存​​在的。 NewsBTC 昨天的分析也支持了这一观点，表明如果 PEPE 未能突破关键阻力位，则存在进一步下跌的风险。然而，强劲反弹可能导致大幅回撤至前期高点。