Dogecoin whales vanish, transactions drop by 88%

It has been a substantial period since Dogecoin influencers, particularly Elon Musk, have made any significant announcements or promotions for the cryptocurrency. It appears that Musk's focus has shifted to other endeavors, potentially neglecting Dogecoin. In addition to Musk's apparent disengagement, Dogecoin has also witnessed a notable departure of whales.

On-chain data reveals a sharp decline in major Dogecoin transactions. This suggests that whales are no longer actively participating on the network. However, a recent substantial Dogecoin trade garnered considerable attention in the crypto market. A whale transferred 100 million DOGE (approximately $25.42 million) to Binance. This movement has contributed to the coin's price decline, triggering a ripple effect among smaller investors.

Dogecoin currently trades at $0.2264, marking a fall to its lowest level since early November. The past three months have raised concerns among traders, leading them to question: Will Dogecoin Crash?

Dogecoin Whale Activity

November saw a surge in Dogecoin Whale Transaction Count, indicating significant whale activity on the network. However, this indicator has been on a steady decline since its peak in mid-November.

Last week, the blockchain recorded only 25 whale trades, representing an approximately 88% decrease from the peak.

DOGE Whale Transaction Count Chart. Source: X

The "Whale Transaction Count" metric, developed by Santiment, tracks DOGE transfers valued at over $1 million. Generally, such substantial single-transaction movements are attributed to whales, highlighting the collective activity of this group.

A high Whale Transaction Count indicates significant whale movement, suggesting active trading by these large buyers. Conversely, a low count suggests diminished engagement by whales, reflecting their reduced involvement in notable transactions.

Further analysis reveals a "death cross" between Dogecoin's MVRV Ratio and its 200-day moving average (MA). This pattern corresponds with the recent price drop of the meme coin and the decline in whale interest. The metric may warrant monitoring as its trajectory could potentially impact DOGE's performance.

Prolonged inactivity from whales could signal a further downtrend, while an upswing may indicate a potential recovery. As the price of DOGE has been falling, investors have been incurring losses, resulting in a decline in the MVRV Ratio. This drop has placed the indicator below its 200-day MA. According to experts, "The last two times this happened, prices dropped 26% and 44%."

Additional Factors Impacting DOGE Price

The recent failure of the LIBRA token, a meme coin promoted by Argentine President Javier Milei, has had an impact on DOGE. LIBRA's value surged to $4.5 billion following Milei's endorsement but subsequently plummeted by over 90% post-launch.

Allegations of a pump-and-dump scheme, with $107 million withdrawn by insiders and $87 million by the development team from liquidity pools, preceded the collapse. This incident, which occurred around February 15, 2025, sent shockwaves through the memecoin market, triggering a sell-off in the wake of LIBRA's crash.

Top Meme Coins by Market Cap. Source: CoinMarketCap

Macroeconomic pressures, such as rising Treasury bond yields and potential new tariffs, have also impacted cryptocurrencies, including DOGE. These factors have compounded the LIBRA effect, exerting additional downward pressure on prices.

Despite the current challenges, there is anticipation surrounding a potential DOGE exchange-traded fund (ETF). The emergence of an ETF could attract institutional investors, potentially counterbalancing the selling pressure exerted by whales. However, this remains speculation at present, as no official approvals or timelines have been announced.

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