It has been a substantial period since Dogecoin influencers, particularly Elon Musk, have made any significant announcements or promotions for the cryptocurrency. It appears that Musk's focus has shifted to other endeavors, potentially neglecting Dogecoin. In addition to Musk's apparent disengagement, Dogecoin has also witnessed a notable departure of whales.

自从Dogecoin的影响者（尤其是Elon Musk）为加密货币发表了任何重要的公告或促销活动以来，这已经很长时间了。似乎马斯克的重点已转移到其他努力上，可能忽略了多霉素。除了马斯克的明显脱离接触外，狗狗币还见证了鲸鱼的显着离开。

On-chain data reveals a sharp decline in major Dogecoin transactions. This suggests that whales are no longer actively participating on the network. However, a recent substantial Dogecoin trade garnered considerable attention in the crypto market. A whale transferred 100 million DOGE (approximately $25.42 million) to Binance. This movement has contributed to the coin's price decline, triggering a ripple effect among smaller investors.

链上的数据表明，主要的狗狗币交易的急剧下降。这表明鲸鱼不再积极参与网络。但是，最近的一项大型狗狗贸易在加密货币市场中引起了极大的关注。一条鲸鱼将1亿个门槛（约合2542万美元）转移到了二元。这一运动导致了硬币的价格下跌，从而引发了小型投资者的连锁反应。

Dogecoin currently trades at $0.2264, marking a fall to its lowest level since early November. The past three months have raised concerns among traders, leading them to question: Will Dogecoin Crash?

Dogecoin目前的交易价格为0.2264美元，标志着自11月初以来的最低水平。过去三个月引起了交易者的担忧，引起了他们的疑问：Dogecoin会崩溃吗？

Dogecoin Whale Activity

狗狗鲸活动

November saw a surge in Dogecoin Whale Transaction Count, indicating significant whale activity on the network. However, this indicator has been on a steady decline since its peak in mid-November.

十一月，狗狗鲸交易数量激增，表明网络上的鲸鱼活动很大。但是，自11月中旬达到顶峰以来，该指标一直在下降。

Last week, the blockchain recorded only 25 whale trades, representing an approximately 88% decrease from the peak.

上周，区块链仅记录了25个鲸鱼交易，比峰值下降了约88％。

DOGE Whale Transaction Count Chart. Source: X

Doge Whale Transaction Count图表。来源：X

The "Whale Transaction Count" metric, developed by Santiment, tracks DOGE transfers valued at over $1 million. Generally, such substantial single-transaction movements are attributed to whales, highlighting the collective activity of this group.

由Santiment开发的“鲸鱼交易计数”度量标准，田径为100万美元。通常，这种实质性的单交易运动归因于鲸鱼，突出了该组的集体活动。

A high Whale Transaction Count indicates significant whale movement, suggesting active trading by these large buyers. Conversely, a low count suggests diminished engagement by whales, reflecting their reduced involvement in notable transactions.

高鲸鱼交易计数表明鲸鱼运动的重大运动，表明这些大型买家的积极交易。相反，低计数表明鲸鱼的参与度减少，反映出它们参与了著名交易。

Further analysis reveals a "death cross" between Dogecoin's MVRV Ratio and its 200-day moving average (MA). This pattern corresponds with the recent price drop of the meme coin and the decline in whale interest. The metric may warrant monitoring as its trajectory could potentially impact DOGE's performance.

进一步的分析表明，Dogecoin的MVRV比与其200天移动平均线（MA）之间的“死亡交叉”。这种模式与模因硬币最近的价格下跌以及鲸鱼兴趣的下降相对应。该指标可能需要监视，因为其轨迹可能会影响Doge的性能。

Prolonged inactivity from whales could signal a further downtrend, while an upswing may indicate a potential recovery. As the price of DOGE has been falling, investors have been incurring losses, resulting in a decline in the MVRV Ratio. This drop has placed the indicator below its 200-day MA. According to experts, "The last two times this happened, prices dropped 26% and 44%."

鲸鱼的长时间不活动可能会进一步表明下降趋势，而上升可能表明潜在的恢复。随着门槛的价格下跌，投资者一直在造成损失，导致MVRV比率下降。该下降使指示器低于其200天的MA。根据专家的说法，“最后两次发生，价格下跌了26％和44％。”

Additional Factors Impacting DOGE Price

影响门价的其他因素

The recent failure of the LIBRA token, a meme coin promoted by Argentine President Javier Milei, has had an impact on DOGE. LIBRA's value surged to $4.5 billion following Milei's endorsement but subsequently plummeted by over 90% post-launch.

天秤座代币最近失败，这是阿根廷总统贾维尔·米利（Javier Milei）推广的模因硬币，对总督有影响。麦利（Milei）认可后，天秤座的价值飙升至45亿美元，但随后发出后90％以上。

Allegations of a pump-and-dump scheme, with $107 million withdrawn by insiders and $87 million by the development team from liquidity pools, preceded the collapse. This incident, which occurred around February 15, 2025, sent shockwaves through the memecoin market, triggering a sell-off in the wake of LIBRA's crash.

一项泵送计划的指控，内部人士撤回了1.07亿美元，开发团队从流动性池中撤出了8700万美元，此前崩溃了。这一事件发生在2025年2月15日左右，在Memecoin市场中造成了冲击波，在天秤座坠毁后引发了抛售。

Top Meme Coins by Market Cap. Source: CoinMarketCap

最高模因硬币由市值组成。资料来源：CoinMarketCap

Macroeconomic pressures, such as rising Treasury bond yields and potential new tariffs, have also impacted cryptocurrencies, including DOGE. These factors have compounded the LIBRA effect, exerting additional downward pressure on prices.

宏观经济压力（例如国库债券收益率上升和潜在的新关税）也影响了包括Doge在内的加密货币。这些因素使天秤座的效应更加复杂，对价格施加了额外的下降压力。

Despite the current challenges, there is anticipation surrounding a potential DOGE exchange-traded fund (ETF). The emergence of an ETF could attract institutional investors, potentially counterbalancing the selling pressure exerted by whales. However, this remains speculation at present, as no official approvals or timelines have been announced.

尽管目前面临挑战，但仍围绕着潜在的Doge交换基金（ETF）的期望。 ETF的出现可能会吸引机构投资者，这可能会抵消鲸鱼施加的销售压力。但是，目前仍然存在猜测，因为尚未宣布官方批准或时间表。

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