Dogecoin Long-Term Holders in Denial? A Look at NUPL and Price Patterns

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term Dogecoin (DOGE) holders suggests a state of denial among investors as their unrealized profits dwindle.

Early December saw DOGE holders exhibiting euphoria, reflecting high unrealized profits and strong market sentiment. By mid-December, however, this shifted to a "belief" phase, indicating continued confidence despite declining prices.

DOGE Long Term Holder NUPL | Source: Glassnode

A sharp DOGE price drop in late December coincided with a NUPL decrease from above 0.72 to nearly 0.48. Throughout January and February, the NUPL remained within the "belief" zone, even with the downward price trend. This persistence suggests holders anticipate a price recovery, a hallmark of the denial phase in market cycles. Continued downward pressure could lead to fear, capitulation, and ultimately, panic selling. Conversely, increased demand and price stabilization could reignite optimism and a return to the "belief" phase, signifying market resilience.

Dogecoin Mirroring Past Performance?

Analysis reveals a potential parallel between Dogecoin's current price action and its 2017-2018 bull run. This earlier period featured a large descending triangle (2015-2017), followed by a significant breakout rally. The price consolidated within this pattern before a parabolic surge. Similarly, DOGE appears to be forming a comparable pattern between 2021 and 2025, characterized by a descending triangle, lower highs, and compressed price action.

Source: Trader Tardigrade/X

The 2017 breakout propelled DOGE from approximately $0.0003 to over $0.01—a 3,000% increase. If history repeats, DOGE could move from its current $0.08-$0.50 range to above $0.70 or even $1.00. The current price action shows compression and accumulation, echoing the 2017 structure. A similar trajectory could result in a substantial rally, potentially exceeding $1.00 in the next cycle. However, failure to break out could lead to extended consolidation, delaying any significant bullish movement. The upcoming price action is therefore crucial.

Dogecoin's Monthly Trend and Key Price Levels

The monthly chart displays a clear uptrend as long as DOGE remains within its rising channel. This structure mirrors previous 50-bar cycles, each concluding with a major breakout. Historically, DOGE experienced significant surges after these consolidation periods, as seen in January 2018 and May 2021.

Source: TradingView

Currently trading at $0.3347, just below the $0.3350 resistance level, DOGE's next move hinges on breaking and holding above this key level. A successful breakout could target $0.4700, $0.9650, and potentially $2.10. Further extension, mirroring past performance, could lead to a long-term move towards $5.00 or higher. Failure to maintain momentum within the channel could result in a retest of the $0.1150 support level, with a potential further decline to $0.0420. However, based on historical patterns, a substantial surge is anticipated, with $0.3350 serving as a crucial pivot point.