Dogecoin Long-Term Holders in Denial? A Look at NUPL and Price Patterns

多霉素长期拒绝？ 看看NUPL和价格模式

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term Dogecoin (DOGE) holders suggests a state of denial among investors as their unrealized profits dwindle.

长期Dogecoin（Doge）持有人的净未实现的损益/损失（NUPL）度量表明，投资者的否认状态是他们未实现的利润减少了。

Early December saw DOGE holders exhibiting euphoria, reflecting high unrealized profits and strong market sentiment. By mid-December, however, this shifted to a "belief" phase, indicating continued confidence despite declining prices.

12月初，道门人持有者展现出欣喜若狂，反映了未实现的高利润和强烈的市场情绪。 然而，到12月中旬，这已经转变为“信仰”阶段，表明尽管价格下降，但仍在持续信心。

DOGE Long Term Holder NUPL | Source: Glassnode

Doge长期持有人nupl |来源：玻璃节

A sharp DOGE price drop in late December coincided with a NUPL decrease from above 0.72 to nearly 0.48. Throughout January and February, the NUPL remained within the "belief" zone, even with the downward price trend. This persistence suggests holders anticipate a price recovery, a hallmark of the denial phase in market cycles. Continued downward pressure could lead to fear, capitulation, and ultimately, panic selling. Conversely, increased demand and price stabilization could reignite optimism and a return to the "belief" phase, signifying market resilience.

12月下旬的急剧下降的总督价格与NUPL从0.72降至近0.48降低。 在整个1月和2月，NUPL仍然在“信念”区域内，即使价格下降的趋势也是如此。这种持久性表明，持有人预计价格恢复是市场周期中拒绝阶段的标志。 继续向下压力会导致恐惧，投降，并最终导致恐慌销售。相反，增加的需求和价格稳定可能会重新点燃乐观，并回到“信念”阶段，这表明市场的韧性。

Dogecoin Mirroring Past Performance?

多霉素反映过去的表现？

Analysis reveals a potential parallel between Dogecoin's current price action and its 2017-2018 bull run. This earlier period featured a large descending triangle (2015-2017), followed by a significant breakout rally. The price consolidated within this pattern before a parabolic surge. Similarly, DOGE appears to be forming a comparable pattern between 2021 and 2025, characterized by a descending triangle, lower highs, and compressed price action.

分析表明，Dogecoin目前的价格行动与其2017-2018 Bull Run之间的潜在相似之处。 早期的时期有一个大型下降三角（2015-2017），随后进行了重大突破集。 在抛物线电涌之前，价格在此模式中合并。 同样，Doge似乎在2021年至2025年之间形成了可比的模式，其特征是下降三角形，较低的高点和压缩的价格动作。

Source: Trader Tardigrade/X

资料来源：Trader Tardigrade/X

The 2017 breakout propelled DOGE from approximately $0.0003 to over $0.01—a 3,000% increase. If history repeats, DOGE could move from its current $0.08-$0.50 range to above $0.70 or even $1.00. The current price action shows compression and accumulation, echoing the 2017 structure. A similar trajectory could result in a substantial rally, potentially exceeding $1.00 in the next cycle. However, failure to break out could lead to extended consolidation, delaying any significant bullish movement. The upcoming price action is therefore crucial.

2017年的分手从大约0.0003美元推进了大约$ 0.01，增长了3,000％。 如果有历史记录重复，Doge可能会从目前的$ 0.08- $ 0.50范围转移到高于$ 0.70甚至$ 1.00的范围。 当前的价格动作显示压缩和积累，与2017年结构相呼应。 类似的轨迹可能会导致大量集会，在下一个周期中可能超过$ 1.00。 但是，未能突破可能会导致扩展的合并，从而延迟任何重大的看涨运动。 因此，即将进行的价格行动至关重要。

Dogecoin's Monthly Trend and Key Price Levels

Dogecoin的每月趋势和关键价格水平

The monthly chart displays a clear uptrend as long as DOGE remains within its rising channel. This structure mirrors previous 50-bar cycles, each concluding with a major breakout. Historically, DOGE experienced significant surges after these consolidation periods, as seen in January 2018 and May 2021.

每月图表显示出明显的上升趋势，只要Doge仍在其上升渠道内。 该结构反映了以前的50杆循环，每个循环都以重大突破结论。 从历史上看，在2018年1月和2021年5月，Doge在这些合并期间经历了巨大的潮流。

Source: TradingView

资料来源：TradingView

Currently trading at $0.3347, just below the $0.3350 resistance level, DOGE's next move hinges on breaking and holding above this key level. A successful breakout could target $0.4700, $0.9650, and potentially $2.10. Further extension, mirroring past performance, could lead to a long-term move towards $5.00 or higher. Failure to maintain momentum within the channel could result in a retest of the $0.1150 support level, with a potential further decline to $0.0420. However, based on historical patterns, a substantial surge is anticipated, with $0.3350 serving as a crucial pivot point.

目前，交易价格为0.3347美元，低于0.3350的阻力水平，Doge的下一步行动取决于打破并保持在此关键水平以上。 成功的突破可能针对$ 0.4700，$ 0.9650和可能为2.10美元。 进一步的延伸，反映过去的性能，可能会导致长期转向$ 5.00或更高。 无法在渠道内保持动力可能会导致重新测试0.1150的支持水平，并有可能进一步下降至0.0420美元。 但是，基于历史模式，预计会有大量激增，其中0.3350美元作为关键枢轴点。