Altcoin Season

Altcoin季節

In 2017, the first altcoin season witnessed Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies surging in market capitalization compared to Bitcoin. Many believed that Bitcoin's dominance would wane.

與比特幣相比，2017年的第一個Altcoin賽季見證了市值的以太坊和其他加密貨幣。許多人認為比特幣的統治地位會減少。

However, these predictions failed to materialize. Over the years, a cyclical pattern emerged in the market. Analysts anticipate another surge in altcoins based on recent charts.

但是，這些預測未能實現。多年來，市場出現了周期性的模式。分析師根據最近的圖表預測，山寨幣會再次激增。

Historical Context

歷史背景

Bitcoin's success inspired enthusiasts to pursue alternative approaches. Bitcoin laid the groundwork for decentralized network experiments.

比特幣的成功啟發了愛好者採取替代方法。比特幣為分散網絡實驗奠定了基礎。

As a foundational protocol, Bitcoin balanced decentralization, security, and performance. However, some users prioritized performance, leading to the emergence of alternative coins. These alternatives often compromised security or decentralization in exchange for improved performance.

作為基礎協議，比特幣平衡了分散，安全性和績效。但是，一些用戶優先考慮性能，導致替代硬幣的出現。這些替代方案通常會損害安全性或權力下放，以換取提高績效。

Aggressive marketing campaigns employed terms like "Bitcoin killer." However, altcoins have consistently fallen short of Bitcoin's adoption and valuation.

積極的營銷活動採用了“比特幣殺手”之類的術語。但是，AltCoins一直缺少比特幣的採用和估值。

Bitcoin's dominance, which reflects its share in the total market capitalization, illustrates the rivalry between Bitcoin and altcoins.

比特幣的統治地位反映了其在總市值中的份額，這說明了比特幣和替代幣之間的競爭。

In 2016, Bitcoin's share declined due to forks, Ethereum's launch, an ICO boom, and the ERC-20 standard adoption. This marked the advent of "altcoin season," where altcoins outpaced Bitcoin.

2016年，由於前叉，以太坊的發布，ICO繁榮和ERC-20標准採用，比特幣的份額下降了。這標誌著“ Altcoin賽季”的出現，Altcoins超過了比特幣。

Blockchain Center introduced the Altcoin Season Index in 2017, which compares altcoin performance to Bitcoin over a 90-day period. An index value above 75% indicates altcoin season. Coinalyze tracks trading volume dominance, where altcoins exceeding 35% suggest a shift in liquidity toward altcoins.

區塊鏈中心在2017年推出了Altcoin季節指數，該指數將Altcoin性能與比特幣在90天的時間內進行了比較。指數值超過75％表示山寨幣季節。 Coinalyze追踪了交易量優勢，在該國山幣超過35％的情況下，表明流動性向山寨幣轉移。

Prerequisites for Altcoin Season

Altcoin季節的先決條件

Altcoin season in 2017 was accompanied by speculation about Bitcoin's dethronement. However, subsequent discussions focused on dominance and capital flows between sectors.

2017年的Altcoin賽季伴隨著關於比特幣的勒斯列賽的猜測。但是，隨後的討論集中在部門之間的優勢和資本流程上。

The primary driver of altcoin growth is the overall market wealth effect. Investors reallocate profits from major projects into new altcoins and tokens.

Altcoin增長的主要驅動力是總體市場財富效應。投資者將主要項目的利潤重新分配給新的Altcoins和代幣。

For example, Ethereum's success fueled investment in its ecosystem. Conversely, Solana's rise led to project development on its platform.

例如，以太坊的成功推動了對其生態系統的投資。相反，Solana的崛起導致了平台上的項目開發。

Capital movements occur outside ecosystems as well, with profits from meme coins being invested in NFTs, GameFi projects, and AI tokens.

資本運動也發生在生態系統之外，其中模因硬幣的利潤投資於NFTS，GameFI項目和AI代幣。

Altcoin season is characterized by increased risk appetite due to the volatility of such assets.

由於此類資產的波動性，AltCoin季節的特徵是風險食慾增加。

Characteristics of Altcoin Season

Altcoin季節的特徵

Previous growth waves indicate an approaching altcoin season. However, there are significantly more altcoins today than during past cycles.

先前的生長波表明接近的山寨幣季節。但是，今天的山寨幣比過去的周期中要多得多。

Conservative estimates suggest a seven- to eightfold increase in the number of cryptocurrencies since 2017-2018. Considering untracked tokens, the total number exceeds several million.

保守的估計表明，自2017 - 2018年以來的加密貨幣數量增加了7至8倍。考慮到未跟踪的令牌，總數超過數百萬。

The sheer number of altcoins prevents simultaneous growth across the entire market. Instead, specific categories have thrived.

巨大的Altcoins可防止整個市場的同時增長。相反，特定類別已經蓬勃發展。

Meme coins, which previously consisted of Dogecoin alone, now constitute a sector with a capitalization of around $50 billion. Artificial intelligence narratives have also gained traction.

Meme Coins以前僅由Dogecoin組成，現在構成了一個大約500億美元的行業。人工智能敘事也引起了人們的關注。

Market fragmentation is accelerating at an alarming rate. As of November 2024, CoinGecko recognizes 354 distinct categories. However, not all narratives succeed. Data shows that 50% of traffic is derived from AI, GameFi, meme coins, Solana's ecosystem, and RWA.

市場破裂以驚人的速度加速。截至2024年11月，Coingecko認可了354個不同的類別。但是，並非所有敘述都成功。數據表明，50％的流量來自AI，Gamefi，Meme Coins，Solana的生態系統和RWA。

Some categories have sustained popularity into 2025. Memes have become the most successful market segment with an 1800% increase, while RWAs have outperformed BTC and ETH by 213%.

某些類別已持續到2025年。模因已成為最成功的市場領域，增長了1800％，而RWA的表現優於BTC，而ETH的表現則增長了213％。

With limited growth opportunities, significant capitalization increases are driven by major coins like Bitcoin and ETH.

在增長機會有限的情況下，大量資本化增加是由比特幣和ETH等主要硬幣驅動的。

Redefining Altcoin Season

重新定義Altcoin季節

Instead of a traditional altcoin season, we are likely to experience local growth trends within specific categories, similar to the S&P 500 index in the U.S. market.

我們可能會在特定類別的特定類別中體驗當地增長趨勢，而不是傳統的替代季節，類似於美國市場的標準普爾500指數。

Participants may experience great returns or little change within these categories.

參與者可能會在這些類別中獲得豐厚的回報或很少的變化。

Questions and Answers

問答

What is an Altcoin Season Index?

什麼是Altcoin季節指數？

The Altcoin Season Index measures altcoin performance against Bitcoin over a specific period. A high index indicates that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin.

在特定時期，AltCoin季節指數測量了針對比特幣的Altcoin性能。高索引表明AltCoins的表現優於比特幣。

How can I predict Altcoin Season?

我該如何預測Altcoin季節？

Indicators such as BTC dominance, trading volume, and capital inflows into altcoins can signal an approaching altcoin season. Tools like the Altcoin Season Index and blockchain data provide insights.

BTC優勢，交易量和資本流入諸如AltCoins之類的指標可能會表明接近Altcoin季節。諸如AltCoin季節指數和區塊鏈數據之類的工具提供了見解。

What does an Altcoin Season Index chart look like?

AltCoin季節索引圖表是什麼樣的？

The chart shows altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin. Peaks indicate periods of altcoin dominance.

該圖顯示了相對於比特幣的AltCoin性能。峰值表示Altcoin優勢的周期。

What is an Altcoin Seasonal Cycle?

什麼是Altcoin季節性週期？

Altcoin cycles often align with Bitcoin's price cycles. When Bitcoin's dominance peaks or declines, investor interest shifts toward altcoins. Understanding these cycles is crucial for anticipating market movements.

Altcoin週期通常與比特幣的價格週期保持一致。當比特幣的主導地位達到頂峰或下降時，投資者的興趣轉移到了altcoins。了解這些週期對於預期市場運動至關重要。