Altcoin Season

Altcoin季节

In 2017, the first altcoin season witnessed Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies surging in market capitalization compared to Bitcoin. Many believed that Bitcoin's dominance would wane.

与比特币相比，2017年的第一个Altcoin赛季见证了市值的以太坊和其他加密货币。许多人认为比特币的统治地位会减少。

However, these predictions failed to materialize. Over the years, a cyclical pattern emerged in the market. Analysts anticipate another surge in altcoins based on recent charts.

但是，这些预测未能实现。多年来，市场出现了周期性的模式。分析师根据最近的图表预测，山寨币会再次激增。

Historical Context

历史背景

Bitcoin's success inspired enthusiasts to pursue alternative approaches. Bitcoin laid the groundwork for decentralized network experiments.

比特币的成功启发了爱好者采取替代方法。比特币为分散网络实验奠定了基础。

As a foundational protocol, Bitcoin balanced decentralization, security, and performance. However, some users prioritized performance, leading to the emergence of alternative coins. These alternatives often compromised security or decentralization in exchange for improved performance.

作为基础协议，比特币平衡了分散，安全性和绩效。但是，一些用户优先考虑性能，导致替代硬币的出现。这些替代方案通常会损害安全性或权力下放，以换取提高绩效。

Aggressive marketing campaigns employed terms like "Bitcoin killer." However, altcoins have consistently fallen short of Bitcoin's adoption and valuation.

积极的营销活动采用了“比特币杀手”之类的术语。但是，AltCoins一直缺少比特币的采用和估值。

Bitcoin's dominance, which reflects its share in the total market capitalization, illustrates the rivalry between Bitcoin and altcoins.

比特币的统治地位反映了其在总市值中的份额，这说明了比特币和替代币之间的竞争。

In 2016, Bitcoin's share declined due to forks, Ethereum's launch, an ICO boom, and the ERC-20 standard adoption. This marked the advent of "altcoin season," where altcoins outpaced Bitcoin.

2016年，由于前叉，以太坊的发布，ICO繁荣和ERC-20标准采用，比特币的份额下降了。这标志着“ Altcoin赛季”的出现，Altcoins超过了比特币。

Blockchain Center introduced the Altcoin Season Index in 2017, which compares altcoin performance to Bitcoin over a 90-day period. An index value above 75% indicates altcoin season. Coinalyze tracks trading volume dominance, where altcoins exceeding 35% suggest a shift in liquidity toward altcoins.

区块链中心在2017年推出了Altcoin季节指数，该指数将Altcoin性能与比特币在90天的时间内进行了比较。指数值超过75％表示山寨币季节。 Coinalyze追踪了交易量优势，在该国山币超过35％的情况下，表明流动性向山寨币转移。

Prerequisites for Altcoin Season

Altcoin季节的先决条件

Altcoin season in 2017 was accompanied by speculation about Bitcoin's dethronement. However, subsequent discussions focused on dominance and capital flows between sectors.

2017年的Altcoin赛季伴随着关于比特币的勒斯列赛的猜测。但是，随后的讨论集中在部门之间的优势和资本流程上。

The primary driver of altcoin growth is the overall market wealth effect. Investors reallocate profits from major projects into new altcoins and tokens.

Altcoin增长的主要驱动力是总体市场财富效应。投资者将主要项目的利润重新分配给新的Altcoins和代币。

For example, Ethereum's success fueled investment in its ecosystem. Conversely, Solana's rise led to project development on its platform.

例如，以太坊的成功推动了对其生态系统的投资。相反，Solana的崛起导致了平台上的项目开发。

Capital movements occur outside ecosystems as well, with profits from meme coins being invested in NFTs, GameFi projects, and AI tokens.

资本运动也发生在生态系统之外，其中模因硬币的利润投资于NFTS，GameFI项目和AI代币。

Altcoin season is characterized by increased risk appetite due to the volatility of such assets.

由于此类资产的波动性，AltCoin季节的特征是风险食欲增加。

Characteristics of Altcoin Season

Altcoin季节的特征

Previous growth waves indicate an approaching altcoin season. However, there are significantly more altcoins today than during past cycles.

先前的生长波表明接近的山寨币季节。但是，今天的山寨币比过去的周期中要多得多。

Conservative estimates suggest a seven- to eightfold increase in the number of cryptocurrencies since 2017-2018. Considering untracked tokens, the total number exceeds several million.

保守的估计表明，自2017 - 2018年以来的加密货币数量增加了7至8倍。考虑到未跟踪的令牌，总数超过数百万。

The sheer number of altcoins prevents simultaneous growth across the entire market. Instead, specific categories have thrived.

巨大的Altcoins可防止整个市场的同时增长。相反，特定类别已经蓬勃发展。

Meme coins, which previously consisted of Dogecoin alone, now constitute a sector with a capitalization of around $50 billion. Artificial intelligence narratives have also gained traction.

Meme Coins以前仅由Dogecoin组成，现在构成了一个大约500亿美元的行业。人工智能叙事也引起了人们的关注。

Market fragmentation is accelerating at an alarming rate. As of November 2024, CoinGecko recognizes 354 distinct categories. However, not all narratives succeed. Data shows that 50% of traffic is derived from AI, GameFi, meme coins, Solana's ecosystem, and RWA.

市场破裂以惊人的速度加速。截至2024年11月，Coingecko认可了354个不同的类别。但是，并非所有叙述都成功。数据表明，50％的流量来自AI，Gamefi，Meme Coins，Solana的生态系统和RWA。

Some categories have sustained popularity into 2025. Memes have become the most successful market segment with an 1800% increase, while RWAs have outperformed BTC and ETH by 213%.

某些类别已持续到2025年。模因已成为最成功的市场领域，增长了1800％，而RWA的表现优于BTC，而ETH的表现则增长了213％。

With limited growth opportunities, significant capitalization increases are driven by major coins like Bitcoin and ETH.

在增长机会有限的情况下，大量资本化增加是由比特币和ETH等主要硬币驱动的。

Redefining Altcoin Season

重新定义Altcoin季节

Instead of a traditional altcoin season, we are likely to experience local growth trends within specific categories, similar to the S&P 500 index in the U.S. market.

我们可能会在特定类别的特定类别中体验当地增长趋势，而不是传统的替代季节，类似于美国市场的标准普尔500指数。

Participants may experience great returns or little change within these categories.

参与者可能会在这些类别中获得丰厚的回报或很少的变化。

Questions and Answers

问答

What is an Altcoin Season Index?

什么是Altcoin季节指数？

The Altcoin Season Index measures altcoin performance against Bitcoin over a specific period. A high index indicates that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin.

在特定时期，AltCoin季节指数测量了针对比特币的Altcoin性能。高索引表明AltCoins的表现优于比特币。

How can I predict Altcoin Season?

我该如何预测Altcoin季节？

Indicators such as BTC dominance, trading volume, and capital inflows into altcoins can signal an approaching altcoin season. Tools like the Altcoin Season Index and blockchain data provide insights.

BTC优势，交易量和资本流入诸如AltCoins之类的指标可能会表明接近Altcoin季节。诸如AltCoin季节指数和区块链数据之类的工具提供了见解。

What does an Altcoin Season Index chart look like?

AltCoin季节索引图表是什么样的？

The chart shows altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin. Peaks indicate periods of altcoin dominance.

该图显示了相对于比特币的AltCoin性能。峰值表示Altcoin优势的周期。

What is an Altcoin Seasonal Cycle?

什么是Altcoin季节性周期？

Altcoin cycles often align with Bitcoin's price cycles. When Bitcoin's dominance peaks or declines, investor interest shifts toward altcoins. Understanding these cycles is crucial for anticipating market movements.

Altcoin周期通常与比特币的价格周期保持一致。当比特币的主导地位达到顶峰或下降时，投资者的兴趣转移到了altcoins。了解这些周期对于预期市场运动至关重要。