Altcoin Volatility Linked to Bitcoin's $100K Threshold

山寨幣波動性與比特幣 10 萬美元門檻相關

According to Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, the cryptocurrency exchange, altcoins will continue to experience significant price swings until Bitcoin establishes a firm foothold above the $100,000 mark.

加密貨幣交易所 Swyftx 首席分析師 Pav Hundal 表示，山寨幣將繼續經歷大幅價格波動，直到比特幣在 10 萬美元大關之上站穩腳跟。

Speaking at Aus Crypto Con 2024, Hundal emphasized that Bitcoin's trajectory remains crucial for sustained altcoin growth. He noted, "We anticipate a significant Bitcoin rally, which will trigger a shift in capital towards altcoins."

Hundal 在 2024 年澳洲加密貨幣大會上發表演說時強調，比特幣的發展軌跡對於山寨幣的持續成長仍然至關重要。他指出，“我們預計比特幣將大幅上漲，這將引發資本轉向山寨幣。”

While some altcoins like memecoins have had brief periods of outperformance, Hundal predicts most will remain volatile until Bitcoin achieves a six-figure milestone.

雖然像迷因幣這樣的一些山寨幣曾短暫表現出色，但 Hundal 預測，在比特幣達到六位數的里程碑之前，大多數山寨幣將保持波動。

Bitcoin briefly approached the $100,000 mark on November 23, reaching $99,605, but has since retreated. Currently trading at $96,476, Bitcoin's fluctuations have kept altcoins in a state of flux.

11 月 23 日，比特幣短暫逼近 10 萬美元大關，達到 99,605 美元，但此後有所回落。目前比特幣的交易價格為 96,476 美元，比特幣的波動使山寨幣一直處於不斷變化的狀態。

Short-Lived Gains and Retracements

短暫的上漲和回撤

Hundal cited examples of recent altcoin volatility. Solana surged 12.98% in 24 hours on November 21, only to give back almost all its gains (13%) within five days. Similarly, Pepe soared 93.15% following its listing announcements on Coinbase and Robinhood on November 15, but retraced 22% of its gains the following day.

Hundal 列舉了最近山寨幣波動的例子。 11 月 21 日，Solana 在 24 小時內飆升 12.98%，但在五天內幾乎回吐了全部漲幅（13%）。同樣，Pepe 於 11 月 15 日在 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 宣布上市後，股價飆升 93.15%，但第二天就回吐了 22% 的漲幅。

Hundal explained, "Altcoins may see gains of 20%, 30%, or even 40%, but they often quickly reverse most of those movements."

Hundal 解釋說，“山寨幣可能會上漲 20%、30%，甚至 40%，但它們往往很快就會扭轉大部分走勢。”

Asked if memecoins like Pepe could replicate the 800% gains seen with Dogecoin in previous cycles, Hundal acknowledged the possibility but emphasized the need for capital inflows. He noted, "Such gains become more likely when Bitcoin dominance declines."

當被問及像 Pepe 這樣的 memecoin 是否可以複製狗狗幣在之前週期中 800% 的漲幅時，Hundal 承認這種可能性，但強調了資本流入的必要性。他指出，“當比特幣的主導地位下降時，這種收益變得更有可能。”

Bitcoin Dominance Sets the Scenario

比特幣的主導地位設定了場景

Hundal highlighted Bitcoin dominance as a key metric for predicting altcoin performance. Currently at 58.30%, according to TradingView, Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market.

Hundal 強調比特幣的主導地位是預測山寨幣表現的關鍵指標。根據 TradingView 的數據，比特幣的主導地位目前為 58.30%，衡量的是比特幣的市值佔整個加密貨幣市場的百分比。

Hundal believes dominance could reach 65-67% or even 70% before reversing. He stated, "My focus is not on predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin dominance but on identifying when conditions favor the altcoin market."

Hundal 認為，在逆轉之前，統治力可能會達到 65-67%，甚至 70%。他表示：“我的重點不是預測比特幣主導地位的確切峰值，而是確定何時條件有利於山寨幣市場。”

With Bitcoin's price movements and dominance shaping the broader crypto market, market participants are closely monitoring its next move to gauge whether altcoins can break free from their current volatility. In the meantime, altcoin traders may encounter significant turbulence.

隨著比特幣的價格走勢和主導地位塑造更廣泛的加密貨幣市場，市場參與者正在密切關注其下一步走勢，以衡量山寨幣是否能夠擺脫當前的波動性。同時，山寨幣交易者可能會遇到重大動盪。

The original post, "Altcoin Volatility Hinges on Bitcoin's $100K Breakout, Says Analyst," was first published on TheCoinrise.com.

最初的帖子“分析師表示，山寨幣波動性取決於比特幣 10 萬美元的突破”，最初發表在 TheCoinrise.com 上。