Altcoin Volatility Linked to Bitcoin's $100K Threshold

山寨币波动性与比特币 10 万美元门槛相关

According to Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, the cryptocurrency exchange, altcoins will continue to experience significant price swings until Bitcoin establishes a firm foothold above the $100,000 mark.

加密货币交易所 Swyftx 首席分析师 Pav Hundal 表示，山寨币将继续经历大幅价格波动，直到比特币在 10 万美元大关之上站稳脚跟。

Speaking at Aus Crypto Con 2024, Hundal emphasized that Bitcoin's trajectory remains crucial for sustained altcoin growth. He noted, "We anticipate a significant Bitcoin rally, which will trigger a shift in capital towards altcoins."

Hundal 在 2024 年澳大利亚加密货币大会上发表讲话时强调，比特币的发展轨迹对于山寨币的持续增长仍然至关重要。他指出，“我们预计比特币将大幅上涨，这将引发资本转向山寨币。”

While some altcoins like memecoins have had brief periods of outperformance, Hundal predicts most will remain volatile until Bitcoin achieves a six-figure milestone.

虽然像模因币这样的一些山寨币曾短暂表现出色，但 Hundal 预测，在比特币达到六位数的里程碑之前，大多数山寨币将保持波动。

Bitcoin briefly approached the $100,000 mark on November 23, reaching $99,605, but has since retreated. Currently trading at $96,476, Bitcoin's fluctuations have kept altcoins in a state of flux.

11 月 23 日，比特币短暂逼近 10 万美元大关，达到 99,605 美元，但此后有所回落。目前比特币的交易价格为 96,476 美元，比特币的波动使山寨币一直处于不断变化的状态。

Short-Lived Gains and Retracements

短暂的上涨和回撤

Hundal cited examples of recent altcoin volatility. Solana surged 12.98% in 24 hours on November 21, only to give back almost all its gains (13%) within five days. Similarly, Pepe soared 93.15% following its listing announcements on Coinbase and Robinhood on November 15, but retraced 22% of its gains the following day.

Hundal 列举了最近山寨币波动的例子。 11 月 21 日，Solana 在 24 小时内飙升 12.98%，但在五天内几乎回吐了全部涨幅（13%）。同样，Pepe 于 11 月 15 日在 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 宣布上市后，股价飙升 93.15%，但第二天就回吐了 22% 的涨幅。

Hundal explained, "Altcoins may see gains of 20%, 30%, or even 40%, but they often quickly reverse most of those movements."

Hundal 解释说，“山寨币可能会上涨 20%、30%，甚至 40%，但它们往往会很快扭转大部分走势。”

Asked if memecoins like Pepe could replicate the 800% gains seen with Dogecoin in previous cycles, Hundal acknowledged the possibility but emphasized the need for capital inflows. He noted, "Such gains become more likely when Bitcoin dominance declines."

当被问及像 Pepe 这样的 memecoin 是否可以复制狗狗币在之前周期中 800% 的涨幅时，Hundal 承认这种可能性，但强调了资本流入的必要性。他指出，“当比特币的主导地位下降时，这种收益变得更有可能。”

Bitcoin Dominance Sets the Scenario

比特币的主导地位设定了场景

Hundal highlighted Bitcoin dominance as a key metric for predicting altcoin performance. Currently at 58.30%, according to TradingView, Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market.

Hundal 强调比特币的主导地位是预测山寨币表现的关键指标。根据 TradingView 的数据，比特币的主导地位目前为 58.30%，衡量的是比特币的市值占整个加密货币市场的百分比。

Hundal believes dominance could reach 65-67% or even 70% before reversing. He stated, "My focus is not on predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin dominance but on identifying when conditions favor the altcoin market."

Hundal 认为，在逆转之前，统治力可能会达到 65-67%，甚至 70%。他表示：“我的重点不是预测比特币主导地位的确切峰值，而是确定何时条件有利于山寨币市场。”

With Bitcoin's price movements and dominance shaping the broader crypto market, market participants are closely monitoring its next move to gauge whether altcoins can break free from their current volatility. In the meantime, altcoin traders may encounter significant turbulence.

随着比特币的价格走势和主导地位塑造更广泛的加密货币市场，市场参与者正在密切关注其下一步走势，以衡量山寨币是否能够摆脱当前的波动性。与此同时，山寨币交易者可能会遇到重大动荡。

The original post, "Altcoin Volatility Hinges on Bitcoin's $100K Breakout, Says Analyst," was first published on TheCoinrise.com.

最初的帖子“分析师表示，山寨币波动性取决于比特币 10 万美元的突破”，最初发表在 TheCoinrise.com 上。