In a recent conversation with Alpha First, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes presented his bold predictions for Bitcoin and the crypto market at large. Here are his insights on what we can expect in the coming year, considering Trump's policies and the potential for global economic shifts:

在最近與 Alpha First 的對話中，BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 提出了他對比特幣和整個加密市場的大膽預測。考慮到川普的政策和全球經濟轉變的潛力，以下是他對我們未來一年的預期的見解：

Favorable Landscape for Bitcoin

比特幣的有利前景

Hayes believes the potential policies of the Trump administration, such as monetary easing and credit distribution, could lead to significant inflation in the U.S. This, he argues, would benefit Bitcoin, which has outperformed U.S. bank credit in recent months.

海耶斯認為，川普政府的潛在政策，例如貨幣寬鬆和信貸分配，可能會導緻美國嚴重通膨。美國銀行信貸。

He also notes the trend towards nationalistic economic policies in other countries, such as China and Japan. This, Hayes believes, could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin as individuals seek decentralized assets amidst a shift away from globalization.

他也注意到中國和日本等其他國家的民族主義經濟政策趨勢。海斯認為，這可能為比特幣創造一個有利的環境，因為個人在全球化的轉變中尋求去中心化資產。

Altcoins, Memecoins, and Beyond

山寨幣、迷因幣等

While Bitcoin remains dominant, Hayes emphasizes the importance of diversification in the broader crypto market. As Bitcoin's price rises, retail investors are increasingly exploring alternative assets such as meme coins, NFTs, Layer-1 and Layer-2 solutions, and gaming-related tokens.

雖然比特幣仍然佔據主導地位，但海耶斯強調了更廣泛的加密貨幣市場多元化的重要性。隨著比特幣價格的上漲，散戶投資者越來越多地探索另類資產，例如 Meme 幣、NFT、Layer-1 和 Layer-2 解決方案以及遊戲相關代幣。

Hayes notes, "Bitcoin leads the market and then everyone invests down the stack of all the other things because, at the end of the day, the goal is I want to earn more crypto, not just go back into Fiat which I know intrinsically is going to zero."

海耶斯指出，「比特幣引領市場，然後每個人都投資所有其他東西，因為歸根結底，我的目標是賺取更多加密貨幣，而不僅僅是回到菲亞特，我知道本質上趨於零。

Meme Coin Frenzy and Caution

Meme 幣的狂熱與謹慎

Hayes acknowledges the excitement surrounding meme coins due to their rapid price fluctuations. However, he warns of their volatility, citing an example of a coin inspired by a government event that reached a $2 billion market cap in just nine days.

海耶斯承認，模因幣因其價格快速波動而令人興奮。然而，他警告說，它們的波動性很大，並舉了一個受政府事件啟發的代幣為例，該代幣在短短 9 天內市值就達到了 20 億美元。

He also discusses Dogecoin, expressing his regret for not investing in it earlier. Nonetheless, he notes the possibility of it reaching $1.

他也討論了狗狗幣，表達了他對沒有早點投資狗狗幣的遺憾。儘管如此，他指出它有可能達到 1 美元。

Lessons from Market Cycles

市場週期的教訓

Hayes underscores the importance of maintaining discipline and avoiding the belief that all assets will continuously rise in value. With increasing speculation in the market, he advises both novice and experienced traders to exercise caution in their decisions.

海耶斯強調保持紀律並避免相信所有資產都會不斷升值的重要性。隨著市場投機活動的增加，他建議新手和經驗豐富的交易者在做出決定時要謹慎行事。

Reflecting on past market cycles, Hayes suggests taking profits when substantial gains are achieved and avoiding being swayed by emotions. He recommends taking some profits off the table when a life-changing amount is earned, acknowledging that opportunities for re-entry will arise.

回顧過去的市場週期，海耶斯建議在實現大幅收益時獲利了結，並避免受到情緒的影響。他建議，當賺到足以改變生活的金額時，就放棄一些利潤，並承認重新進入的機會將會出現。

Bitcoin Price Predictions

比特幣價格預測

Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2022 and potentially $250,000 by 2025. He attributes this growth to growing institutional interest and the inflow of capital from traditional finance sectors.

Hayes 預測，到 2022 年底，比特幣的價格可能會達到 10 萬美元，到 2025 年可能會達到 25 萬美元。