In a recent conversation with Alpha First, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes presented his bold predictions for Bitcoin and the crypto market at large. Here are his insights on what we can expect in the coming year, considering Trump's policies and the potential for global economic shifts:

在最近与 Alpha First 的对话中，BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 提出了他对比特币和整个加密市场的大胆预测。考虑到特朗普的政策和全球经济转变的潜力，以下是他对我们未来一年的预期的见解：

Favorable Landscape for Bitcoin

比特币的有利前景

Hayes believes the potential policies of the Trump administration, such as monetary easing and credit distribution, could lead to significant inflation in the U.S. This, he argues, would benefit Bitcoin, which has outperformed U.S. bank credit in recent months.

海耶斯认为，特朗普政府的潜在政策，例如货币宽松和信贷分配，可能会导致美国出现严重通胀。他认为，这将有利于比特币，近几个月来，比特币的表现优于美国银行信贷。

He also notes the trend towards nationalistic economic policies in other countries, such as China and Japan. This, Hayes believes, could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin as individuals seek decentralized assets amidst a shift away from globalization.

他还注意到中国和日本等其他国家的民族主义经济政策趋势。海斯认为，这可能会为比特币创造一个有利的环境，因为个人在全球化的转变中寻求去中心化资产。

Altcoins, Memecoins, and Beyond

山寨币、模因币等

While Bitcoin remains dominant, Hayes emphasizes the importance of diversification in the broader crypto market. As Bitcoin's price rises, retail investors are increasingly exploring alternative assets such as meme coins, NFTs, Layer-1 and Layer-2 solutions, and gaming-related tokens.

虽然比特币仍然占据主导地位，但海耶斯强调了更广泛的加密货币市场多元化的重要性。随着比特币价格的上涨，散户投资者越来越多地探索另类资产，例如 Meme 币、NFT、Layer-1 和 Layer-2 解决方案以及游戏相关代币。

Hayes notes, "Bitcoin leads the market and then everyone invests down the stack of all the other things because, at the end of the day, the goal is I want to earn more crypto, not just go back into Fiat which I know intrinsically is going to zero."

海耶斯指出，“比特币引领市场，然后每个人都投资所有其他东西，因为归根结底，我的目标是赚取更多加密货币，而不仅仅是回到菲亚特，我知道本质上是趋于零。”

Meme Coin Frenzy and Caution

Meme 币的狂热与谨慎

Hayes acknowledges the excitement surrounding meme coins due to their rapid price fluctuations. However, he warns of their volatility, citing an example of a coin inspired by a government event that reached a $2 billion market cap in just nine days.

海耶斯承认，模因币因其价格快速波动而令人兴奋。然而，他警告说，它们的波动性很大，并举了一个受政府事件启发的代币为例，该代币在短短 9 天内市值就达到了 20 亿美元。

He also discusses Dogecoin, expressing his regret for not investing in it earlier. Nonetheless, he notes the possibility of it reaching $1.

他还讨论了狗狗币，表达了他对没有早点投资狗狗币的遗憾。尽管如此，他指出它有可能达到 1 美元。

Lessons from Market Cycles

市场周期的教训

Hayes underscores the importance of maintaining discipline and avoiding the belief that all assets will continuously rise in value. With increasing speculation in the market, he advises both novice and experienced traders to exercise caution in their decisions.

海耶斯强调保持纪律并避免相信所有资产都会不断升值的重要性。随着市场投机活动的增加，他建议新手和经验丰富的交易者在做出决定时要谨慎行事。

Reflecting on past market cycles, Hayes suggests taking profits when substantial gains are achieved and avoiding being swayed by emotions. He recommends taking some profits off the table when a life-changing amount is earned, acknowledging that opportunities for re-entry will arise.

回顾过去的市场周期，海耶斯建议在实现大幅收益时获利了结，并避免受到情绪的影响。他建议，当赚到足以改变生活的金额时，就放弃一些利润，并承认重新进入的机会将会出现。

Bitcoin Price Predictions

比特币价格预测

Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2022 and potentially $250,000 by 2025. He attributes this growth to growing institutional interest and the inflow of capital from traditional finance sectors.

Hayes 预测，到 2022 年底，比特币的价格可能会达到 10 万美元，到 2025 年可能会达到 25 万美元。他将这种增长归因于机构兴趣的增长以及传统金融部门的资本流入。