Recent developments have seen Bitcoin’s value experiencing fluctuations as it retraces its steps towards the $40,000 mark. This downward movement comes amidst a backdrop of heightened anticipation and speculation surrounding the market potential of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). 

最近的事態發展表明，比特幣的價值在向 40,000 美元大關回撤時經歷了波動。這種下行趨勢是在人們對比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）市場潛力的預期和猜測不斷升溫的背景下發生的。

Bitcoin starts the week on a bad scale

At 7.30 a.m. on Monday in New York, the largest virtual token in the world fell as much as 3.4%, reaching a low of $40,352 — which was just below its lowest point of 2024, recorded on Friday. Other cryptoassets also declined, with Ether falling 4.1% and Dogecoin and Solana’s SOL, lesser tokens, falling 3.9% and 2.1%, respectively.

比特幣本週一開局就表現不佳。紐約早上 7.30，全球最大的虛擬代幣下跌了 3.4%，跌至 40,352 美元的低點，略低於週五記錄的 2024 年最低點。其他加密資產也下跌，其中以太幣下跌 4.1%，狗狗幣和 Solana 的 SOL（較小的代幣）分別下跌 3.9% 和 2.1%。

At the time of writing, the current value of Bitcoin (BTC) is $40,486.00, reflecting a 2.6% decrease since yesterday and a 0.3% increase from an hour ago. BTC is currently 4.2% less valuable than it was seven days ago. The aggregate traded volume of Bitcoin over the last twenty-four hours was $21,371,488,837. The Fear and Greed index sits at 55.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣 (BTC) 的當前價值為 40,486.00 美元，較昨天下跌 2.6%，較一小時前上漲 0.3%。 BTC 目前的價值比 7 天前下跌了 4.2%。過去二十四小時內比特幣的總交易量為 21,371,488,837 美元。恐懼與貪婪指數為 55。

The current value of the global crypto market cap is $1.67 trillion, representing a change of -2.92% over the last twenty-four hours and 55.48% over the past year. The current market cap of Bitcoin is $797 billion, which signifies a 47.7% market share for Bitcoin. Stablecoins, meanwhile, have a market capitalization of $135 billion, or 8.07%, of the total crypto market cap.

— 比特幣恐懼與貪婪指數 (@BitcoinFear) 2024 年 1 月 22 日全球加密貨幣市值目前值為 1.67 兆美元，過去 24 小時內變化為 -2.92%，過去一年變化為 55.48%。目前比特幣的市值為7,970億美元，佔比特幣市場佔有率的47.7%。同時，穩定幣的市值為 1,350 億美元，佔加密貨幣總市值的 8.07%。

BTC vs. traditional markets

The declines stood in stark contrast to positive performance in other markets, as global equities advanced on Monday and US futures indicated that Wall Street may set a new record. Ahead of Thursday’s release of fourth-quarter GDP data, investors remained optimistic about the resilience of the US economy, as the STOXX index in Europe gained 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7%.

比特幣與傳統市場的下跌與其他市場的正面表現形成鮮明對比，全球股市週一上漲，美國期貨顯示華爾街可能創下新紀錄。在周四公佈第四季度 GDP 數據之前，投資者對美國經濟的韌性仍持樂觀態度，歐洲 STOXX 指數上漲 0.5%，納斯達克 100 指數期貨上漲 0.7%。

According to a note published by Bloomberg Intelligence on Friday, about $6.5 billion worth of spot Bitcoin ETFs changed hands in the United States during their first week of trading. This is significantly more than the volume of shares traded in ETFs pegged to traditional assets.

根據彭博資訊週五發布的一份報告，價值約 65 億美元的現貨比特幣 ETF 在美國交易的第一周就易手了。這遠遠超過了與傳統資產掛鉤的 ETF 的交易量。

Certainly, since the ETF listings, market sentiment has declined, and the declining trend in leverage usage indicates that traders are opening cautious positions.

當然，自ETF上市以來，市場情緒有所下降，槓桿使用率的下降趨勢表明交易者正在謹慎建倉。

Best understand – market correction!!

Presently, the crypto coin is perilously near the psychological threshold of $40,000, which has sparked a debate regarding the continuation of the correction.

最好理解——市場調整！！目前，加密貨幣已經危險地接近40,000美元的心理門檻，這引發了關於是否繼續調整的爭論。

As a collective, the crypto markets exhibited an extended upward trajectory free of significant fluctuations before the present downturn.

作為一個整體，加密貨幣市場在當前的低迷之前表現出長期的上升軌跡，沒有重大波動。

A great deal of the increase could be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

成長的很大一部分可能歸因於對現貨比特幣 ETF 獲得批准的預期。

The price rose from approximately $26,000 in mid-October to $48,500 in January, with hardly any price fluctuations in between. This signifies a growth of approximately 86%.

價格從 10 月中旬的約 26,000 美元上漲到 1 月的 48,500 美元，幾乎沒有任何價格波動。這意味著增長約 86%。

In addition, the well-known Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been indicating for quite some time that the market is overbought. The trend has been towards increasing populations for a considerable period of time. As was recently reported, it fell to Neutral for the first time in three months on January 15th.

此外，著名的加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數在相當長的一段時間內一直表明市場處於超買狀態。在相當長的一段時間內，人口成長的趨勢一直存在。正如最近報導的那樣，1 月 15 日，該指數三個月來首次跌至中性。

Prior to that, it was predominantly positioned in the Greed or Extreme Greed category, which, according to multiple metrics, indicated excessively enthusiastic market participants.

在此之前，它主要定位於「貪婪」或「極度貪婪」類別，根據多種指標，這表明市場參與者過於熱情。

It is evident that sellers have held the upper hand for the past two weeks at this rate, and many are speculating as to whether or not the bulls will return.

顯然，在過去兩周里，賣家以這種速度佔了上風，許多人都在猜測多頭是否會回歸。

Although accurately forecasting potential fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price is challenging, the halving is rapidly approaching and could play another aspect in BTC’s bull rally.

儘管準確預測比特幣價格的潛在波動具有挑戰性，但減半正在迅速臨近，可能會在比特幣牛市反彈中發揮另一個作用。