Recent developments have seen Bitcoin’s value experiencing fluctuations as it retraces its steps towards the $40,000 mark. This downward movement comes amidst a backdrop of heightened anticipation and speculation surrounding the market potential of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). 

最近的事态发展表明，比特币的价值在向 40,000 美元大关回撤时经历了波动。这种下行趋势是在人们对比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）市场潜力的预期和猜测不断升温的背景下发生的。

Bitcoin starts the week on a bad scale

At 7.30 a.m. on Monday in New York, the largest virtual token in the world fell as much as 3.4%, reaching a low of $40,352 — which was just below its lowest point of 2024, recorded on Friday. Other cryptoassets also declined, with Ether falling 4.1% and Dogecoin and Solana’s SOL, lesser tokens, falling 3.9% and 2.1%, respectively.

比特币本周一开局就表现不佳。周一纽约早上 7.30，全球最大的虚拟代币下跌了 3.4%，跌至 40,352 美元的低点，略低于周五记录的 2024 年最低点。其他加密资产也下跌，其中以太币下跌 4.1%，狗狗币和 Solana 的 SOL（较小的代币）分别下跌 3.9% 和 2.1%。

At the time of writing, the current value of Bitcoin (BTC) is $40,486.00, reflecting a 2.6% decrease since yesterday and a 0.3% increase from an hour ago. BTC is currently 4.2% less valuable than it was seven days ago. The aggregate traded volume of Bitcoin over the last twenty-four hours was $21,371,488,837. The Fear and Greed index sits at 55.

截至撰写本文时，比特币 (BTC) 的当前价值为 40,486.00 美元，较昨天下跌 2.6%，较一小时前上涨 0.3%。 BTC 目前的价值比 7 天前下跌了 4.2%。过去二十四小时内比特币的总交易量为 21,371,488,837 美元。恐惧与贪婪指数为 55。

The current value of the global crypto market cap is $1.67 trillion, representing a change of -2.92% over the last twenty-four hours and 55.48% over the past year. The current market cap of Bitcoin is $797 billion, which signifies a 47.7% market share for Bitcoin. Stablecoins, meanwhile, have a market capitalization of $135 billion, or 8.07%, of the total crypto market cap.

— 比特币恐惧与贪婪指数 (@BitcoinFear) 2024 年 1 月 22 日全球加密货币市值当前值为 1.67 万亿美元，过去 24 小时内变化为 -2.92%，过去一年变化为 55.48%。目前比特币的市值为7970亿美元，占比特币市场份额的47.7%。与此同时，稳定币的市值为 1350 亿美元，占加密货币总市值的 8.07%。

BTC vs. traditional markets

The declines stood in stark contrast to positive performance in other markets, as global equities advanced on Monday and US futures indicated that Wall Street may set a new record. Ahead of Thursday’s release of fourth-quarter GDP data, investors remained optimistic about the resilience of the US economy, as the STOXX index in Europe gained 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7%.

比特币与传统市场的下跌与其他市场的积极表现形成鲜明对比，全球股市周一上涨，美国期货表明华尔街可能创下新纪录。在周四公布第四季度 GDP 数据之前，投资者对美国经济的韧性仍持乐观态度，欧洲 STOXX 指数上涨 0.5%，纳斯达克 100 指数期货上涨 0.7%。

According to a note published by Bloomberg Intelligence on Friday, about $6.5 billion worth of spot Bitcoin ETFs changed hands in the United States during their first week of trading. This is significantly more than the volume of shares traded in ETFs pegged to traditional assets.

根据彭博资讯周五发布的一份报告，价值约 65 亿美元的现货比特币 ETF 在美国交易的第一周就易手了。这远远超过了与传统资产挂钩的 ETF 的交易量。

Certainly, since the ETF listings, market sentiment has declined, and the declining trend in leverage usage indicates that traders are opening cautious positions.

当然，自ETF上市以来，市场情绪有所下降，杠杆使用率的下降趋势表明交易者正在谨慎建仓。

Best understand – market correction!!

Presently, the crypto coin is perilously near the psychological threshold of $40,000, which has sparked a debate regarding the continuation of the correction.

最好理解——市场调整！！目前，加密货币已经危险地接近40,000美元的心理门槛，这引发了关于是否继续调整的争论。

As a collective, the crypto markets exhibited an extended upward trajectory free of significant fluctuations before the present downturn.

作为一个整体，加密货币市场在当前的低迷之前表现出长期的上升轨迹，没有出现重大波动。

A great deal of the increase could be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

增长的很大一部分可能归因于对现货比特币 ETF 获得批准的预期。

The price rose from approximately $26,000 in mid-October to $48,500 in January, with hardly any price fluctuations in between. This signifies a growth of approximately 86%.

价格从 10 月中旬的约 26,000 美元上涨到 1 月的 48,500 美元，其间几乎没有任何价格波动。这意味着增长约 86%。

In addition, the well-known Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been indicating for quite some time that the market is overbought. The trend has been towards increasing populations for a considerable period of time. As was recently reported, it fell to Neutral for the first time in three months on January 15th.

此外，著名的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数在相当长的一段时间内一直表明市场处于超买状态。在相当长的一段时间内，人口增长的趋势一直存在。正如最近报道的那样，1 月 15 日，该指数三个月来首次跌至中性。

Prior to that, it was predominantly positioned in the Greed or Extreme Greed category, which, according to multiple metrics, indicated excessively enthusiastic market participants.

在此之前，它主要定位于“贪婪”或“极度贪婪”类别，根据多种指标，这表明市场参与者过于热情。

It is evident that sellers have held the upper hand for the past two weeks at this rate, and many are speculating as to whether or not the bulls will return.

显然，在过去两周里，卖家以这种速度占据了上风，许多人都在猜测多头是否会回归。

Although accurately forecasting potential fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price is challenging, the halving is rapidly approaching and could play another aspect in BTC’s bull rally.

尽管准确预测比特币价格的潜在波动具有挑战性，但减半正在迅速临近，可能会在比特币牛市反弹中发挥另一个作用。