Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特幣價格分析

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its decline by over 3% this week. Bears have maintained selling pressure, but the price has not dipped below the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) of $64,230. This suggests that bulls are defending this level, representing the cost basis for Bitcoin holders holding their coins for 155 days or less.

比特幣 (BTC) 本週跌幅擴大超過 3%。空頭維持拋售壓力，但價格並未跌破短期持有者實現價格 (STH-RP) 64,230 美元。這表明多頭正在捍衛這一水平，代表比特幣持有者持有比特幣 155 天或更短時間的成本基礎。

Since June 13, Bitcoin's weakness has led to sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, according to Farside Investors data, indicating nerves among Bitcoin investors.

Farside Investors 的數據顯示，自 6 月 13 日以來，比特幣的疲軟導致現貨比特幣交易所交易基金持續資金流出，顯示比特幣投資者的緊張情緒。

Independent analyst Willy Woo believes Bitcoin's recovery will commence when "weak miners die" and the hashrate recovers. In previous halving cycles, the hashrate recovery took 8 days in 2020 and 24 days in 2017. Miner capitulation is taking longer this year, possibly due to "ordinal inscriptions boosting profits."

獨立分析師 Willy Woo 認為，當「弱礦工死亡」並且算力恢復時，比特幣的復甦就會開始。在先前的減半週期中，算力恢復在 2020 年需要 8 天，2017 年需要 24 天。

If Bitcoin trades above $64,602, it could trigger buying in altcoins. Here are five cryptocurrencies that show strength on the charts:

如果比特幣交易價格高於 64,602 美元，可能會引發山寨幣購買。以下是圖表上顯示實力的五種加密貨幣：

BTC/USDT Daily Chart

BTC/USDT 日線圖

Bitcoin broke below the $64,602 support on June 21 but failed to build on its advantage. This suggests reduced selling at lower levels.

6 月 21 日，比特幣跌破 64,602 美元支撐位，但未能擴大優勢。這表明較低水平的拋售減少。

Bulls must drive the price above moving averages to trap bears. If successful, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $70,000 and then $72,000. Bears are expected to resist strongly between $72,000 and $73,777.

多頭必須將價格推至移動平均線上方才能捕捉空頭。如果成功，BTC/USDT 貨幣對可能會漲至 70,000 美元，然後漲至 72,000 美元。預計空頭將在 72,000 美元至 73,777 美元之間強烈抵抗。

Conversely, a price reversal or a decline below moving averages would indicate negative sentiment and potential selling on rallies. This could lead to a deeper correction to $60,000.

相反，價格反轉或跌破移動平均線將表明負面情緒和潛在的反彈拋售。這可能會導致進一步回調至 60,000 美元。

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

BTC/USDT 4 小時圖

The 4-hour chart shows bulls attempting a recovery met with selling at the 20-EMA. Further price declines could lead to a drop below $63,379 and a resumption of the downtrend. A potential slump to $60,000 is possible.

4 小時圖顯示，多頭試圖復甦，但在 20 日均線遭遇拋售。價格進一步下跌可能導致跌破 63,379 美元並恢復下跌趨勢。有可能跌至 60,000 美元。

However, positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests reduced selling pressure. A breakout and close above the 50-simple moving average will strengthen bulls, potentially leading to a rise to $67,000 and $70,000.

然而，相對強弱指數（RSI）的正背離顯示拋售壓力減輕。突破並收於 50 簡單移動平均線上方將增強多頭力量，可能導致價格上漲至 67,000 美元和 70,000 美元。

Toncoin Price Analysis

Toncoin 價格分析

Bulls prevented Toncoin (TON) from slipping below the 50-day SMA ($6.83), indicating solid buying at lower levels.

多頭阻止了 Toncoin (TON) 跌破 50 日移動平均線（6.83 美元），這表明較低水平的買盤強勁。

They are attempting to push the price above the $7.67 resistance. If successful, the TON/USDT pair could rally to $8.29. Bears may resist at this level, but a bullish break could lead to a surge towards $10.

他們試圖將價格推高至 7.67 美元阻力位之上。如果成功，TON/USDT 貨幣對可能會上漲至 8.29 美元。空頭可能會在此水準上抵抗，但看漲突破可能會導致價格飆升至 10 美元。

Conversely, a price reversal below $6.60 would complete a head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially triggering a downward move towards the pattern target of $4.91.

相反，價格反轉低於 6.60 美元將完成頭肩形態，可能引發向下移動至 4.91 美元的形態目標。

TON/USDT 4-Hour Chart

TON/USDT 4 小時圖

Bears have repeatedly pushed the price below the uptrend line but failed to initiate a downtrend. This suggests aggressive buying by bulls at lower levels. The $7.67 to $8.29 zone is expected to witness strong selling, but a bullish breakout could push the pair towards $10.

空頭多次將價格推至上升趨勢線以下，但未能啟動下降趨勢。這表明多頭在較低水平上積極買入。 7.67 美元至 8.29 美元區域預計將出現強勁拋售，但看漲突破可能推動該貨幣對升至 10 美元。

The first notable support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. A decline below this level could lead to consolidation between $6.60 and $7.67. Bears will gain the upper hand if the price falls and closes below $6.77.

下檔方面第一個值得注意的支撐是 20 日均線。跌破該水準可能導致 6.60 美元至 7.67 美元之間盤整。如果價格下跌並收於 6.77 美元以下，空頭將佔上風。

Pepe Price Analysis

佩佩價格分析

Pepe (PEPE) has been correcting for the past few days, but a rebound from $0.000010 shows bullish efforts.

Pepe (PEPE) 過去幾天一直在調整，但從 0.000010 美元反彈顯示看漲努力。

Buyers must push the price above the downtrend line and moving averages to signal a sustained recovery. The PEPE/USDT pair could rise to $0.000014 and subsequently to $0.000016.

買家必須將價格推至下降趨勢線和移動平均線之上，以發出持續復甦的訊號。 PEPE/USDT 貨幣對可能會升至 0.000014 美元，隨後升至 0.000016 美元。

Conversely, a price reversal from the downtrend line or moving averages would indicate continued selling by bears on rallies. A break below $0.000010 could open the doors for a fall to $0.000008.

相反，價格從下降趨勢線或移動平均線反轉將表明空頭在反彈時繼續拋售。跌破 0.000010 美元可能為跌至 0.000008 美元打開大門。

PEPE/USDT 4-Hour Chart

PEPE/USDT 4 小時圖

The 20-EMA has flattened out, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. If buyers drive the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $0.000014. This level may act as a minor hurdle, but if cleared, the pair may extend the relief rally to $0.000016.

20 均線已趨於平緩，RSI 略低於中點，顯示供需平衡。如果買家將價格推至下降趨勢線上方，則該貨幣對可能達到 0.000014 美元。該水平可能是一個小障礙，但如果被清除，該貨幣對可能會將緩解反彈擴大至 0.000016 美元。

A downtrend line breakout will tilt the advantage towards bears, potentially pulling the price to the support zone between $0.000009 and $0.000010.

下降趨勢線的突破將使優勢向空頭傾斜，可能將價格拉至 0.000009 美元至 0.000010 美元之間的支撐區域。

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.

免責聲明：本文不構成投資建議。投資者在做出任何財務決定之前應進行自己的研究。