Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特币价格分析

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its decline by over 3% this week. Bears have maintained selling pressure, but the price has not dipped below the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) of $64,230. This suggests that bulls are defending this level, representing the cost basis for Bitcoin holders holding their coins for 155 days or less.

比特币 (BTC) 本周跌幅扩大超过 3%。空头维持抛售压力，但价格并未跌破短期持有者实现价格 (STH-RP) 64,230 美元。这表明多头正在捍卫这一水平，代表比特币持有者持有比特币 155 天或更短时间的成本基础。

Since June 13, Bitcoin's weakness has led to sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, according to Farside Investors data, indicating nerves among Bitcoin investors.

Farside Investors 的数据显示，自 6 月 13 日以来，比特币的疲软导致现货比特币交易所交易基金持续资金流出，这表明比特币投资者的紧张情绪。

Independent analyst Willy Woo believes Bitcoin's recovery will commence when "weak miners die" and the hashrate recovers. In previous halving cycles, the hashrate recovery took 8 days in 2020 and 24 days in 2017. Miner capitulation is taking longer this year, possibly due to "ordinal inscriptions boosting profits."

独立分析师 Willy Woo 认为，当“弱矿工死亡”并且算力恢复时，比特币的复苏就会开始。在之前的减半周期中，算力恢复在 2020 年需要 8 天，2017 年需要 24 天。今年矿工投降的时间更长，可能是由于“序数铭文提高了利润”。

If Bitcoin trades above $64,602, it could trigger buying in altcoins. Here are five cryptocurrencies that show strength on the charts:

如果比特币交易价格高于 64,602 美元，可能会引发山寨币购买。以下是图表上显示实力的五种加密货币：

BTC/USDT Daily Chart

BTC/USDT 日线图

Bitcoin broke below the $64,602 support on June 21 but failed to build on its advantage. This suggests reduced selling at lower levels.

6 月 21 日，比特币跌破 64,602 美元支撑位，但未能扩大优势。这表明较低水平的抛售减少。

Bulls must drive the price above moving averages to trap bears. If successful, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $70,000 and then $72,000. Bears are expected to resist strongly between $72,000 and $73,777.

多头必须将价格推至移动平均线上方才能捕获空头。如果成功，BTC/USDT 货币对可能会涨至 70,000 美元，然后涨至 72,000 美元。预计空头将在 72,000 美元至 73,777 美元之间强烈抵抗。

Conversely, a price reversal or a decline below moving averages would indicate negative sentiment and potential selling on rallies. This could lead to a deeper correction to $60,000.

相反，价格反转或跌破移动平均线将表明负面情绪和潜在的反弹抛售。这可能会导致进一步回调至 60,000 美元。

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

BTC/USDT 4 小时图

The 4-hour chart shows bulls attempting a recovery met with selling at the 20-EMA. Further price declines could lead to a drop below $63,379 and a resumption of the downtrend. A potential slump to $60,000 is possible.

4 小时图显示，多头试图复苏，但在 20 日均线遭遇抛售。价格进一步下跌可能导致跌破 63,379 美元并恢复下跌趋势。有可能跌至 60,000 美元。

However, positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests reduced selling pressure. A breakout and close above the 50-simple moving average will strengthen bulls, potentially leading to a rise to $67,000 and $70,000.

然而，相对强弱指数（RSI）的正背离表明抛售压力有所减轻。突破并收于 50 简单移动平均线上方将增强多头力量，可能导致价格上涨至 67,000 美元和 70,000 美元。

Toncoin Price Analysis

Toncoin 价格分析

Bulls prevented Toncoin (TON) from slipping below the 50-day SMA ($6.83), indicating solid buying at lower levels.

多头阻止了 Toncoin (TON) 跌破 50 日移动平均线（6.83 美元），这表明较低水平的买盘强劲。

They are attempting to push the price above the $7.67 resistance. If successful, the TON/USDT pair could rally to $8.29. Bears may resist at this level, but a bullish break could lead to a surge towards $10.

他们试图将价格推高至 7.67 美元阻力位之上。如果成功，TON/USDT 货币对可能会上涨至 8.29 美元。空头可能会在此水平上抵抗，但看涨突破可能会导致价格飙升至 10 美元。

Conversely, a price reversal below $6.60 would complete a head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially triggering a downward move towards the pattern target of $4.91.

相反，价格反转低于 6.60 美元将完成头肩形态，可能引发向下移动至 4.91 美元的形态目标。

TON/USDT 4-Hour Chart

TON/USDT 4 小时图

Bears have repeatedly pushed the price below the uptrend line but failed to initiate a downtrend. This suggests aggressive buying by bulls at lower levels. The $7.67 to $8.29 zone is expected to witness strong selling, but a bullish breakout could push the pair towards $10.

空头多次将价格推至上升趋势线以下，但未能启动下降趋势。这表明多头在较低水平上积极买入。 7.67 美元至 8.29 美元区域预计将出现强劲抛售，但看涨突破可能推动该货币对升至 10 美元。

The first notable support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. A decline below this level could lead to consolidation between $6.60 and $7.67. Bears will gain the upper hand if the price falls and closes below $6.77.

下行方面第一个值得注意的支撑是 20 日均线。跌破该水平可能导致 6.60 美元至 7.67 美元之间盘整。如果价格下跌并收于 6.77 美元以下，空头将占据上风。

Pepe Price Analysis

佩佩价格分析

Pepe (PEPE) has been correcting for the past few days, but a rebound from $0.000010 shows bullish efforts.

Pepe (PEPE) 过去几天一直在调整，但从 0.000010 美元反弹显示看涨努力。

Buyers must push the price above the downtrend line and moving averages to signal a sustained recovery. The PEPE/USDT pair could rise to $0.000014 and subsequently to $0.000016.

买家必须将价格推至下降趋势线和移动平均线之上，以发出持续复苏的信号。 PEPE/USDT 货币对可能会升至 0.000014 美元，随后升至 0.000016 美元。

Conversely, a price reversal from the downtrend line or moving averages would indicate continued selling by bears on rallies. A break below $0.000010 could open the doors for a fall to $0.000008.

相反，价格从下降趋势线或移动平均线反转将表明空头在反弹时继续抛售。跌破 0.000010 美元可能为跌至 0.000008 美元打开大门。

PEPE/USDT 4-Hour Chart

PEPE/USDT 4 小时图

The 20-EMA has flattened out, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. If buyers drive the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $0.000014. This level may act as a minor hurdle, but if cleared, the pair may extend the relief rally to $0.000016.

20 均线已趋于平缓，RSI 略低于中点，表明供需平衡。如果买家将价格推至下降趋势线上方，则该货币对可能会达到 0.000014 美元。该水平可能是一个小障碍，但如果被清除，该货币对可能会将缓解反弹扩大至 0.000016 美元。

A downtrend line breakout will tilt the advantage towards bears, potentially pulling the price to the support zone between $0.000009 and $0.000010.

下降趋势线的突破将使优势向空头倾斜，可能将价格拉至 0.000009 美元至 0.000010 美元之间的支撑区域。

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.

免责声明：本文不构成投资建议。投资者在做出任何财务决定之前应进行自己的研究。