Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating the post-halving phase, facing resistance below the last all-time high. As the crypto continues to find its footing, a section of the market believes that Bitcoin is in line to embark on a post-halving rally, an element backed by several analysts.

比特幣（BTC）正在經歷減半後階段，面臨上次歷史高點下方的阻力。隨著加密貨幣繼續站穩腳跟，一部分市場認為比特幣預計在減半後開始反彈，這一點得到了幾位分析師的支持。

For instance, crypto trading expert TradingShot acknowledged in a TradingView post on April 22 that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, struggling to surpass and sustainably close above its record-high resistance.

例如，加密貨幣交易專家 TradingShot 在 4 月 22 日的 TradingView 貼文中承認，比特幣正處於關鍵時刻，正在努力超越並持續收於其歷史高位阻力位之上。

According to the analyst, the pattern has been marked by a period of sideways consolidation, and while it might suggest bearish sentiments, history suggests otherwise.

這位分析師表示，該模式的特點是一段時期的橫向盤整，雖然這可能表明看跌情緒，但歷史表明並非如此。

TradingShot’s analysis noted that within Bitcoin’s historical cycles, such periods of consolidation often precede an aggressive non-stop rally, propelling the cryptocurrency to new heights. Therefore, the expert noted that Bitcoin will likely peak at $150,000 to $300,000 if the pattern repeats.

TradingShot 的分析指出，在比特幣的歷史週期中，這種盤整期通常會發生在激進的不間斷反彈之前，將加密貨幣推向新的高度。因此，專家指出，如果這種模式重複，比特幣可能會達到 15 萬至 30 萬美元的高峰。

“On any other occasion, that would be a bearish signal, an inability of the market to find enough willing buyers to push it to a new High. But with BTC’s historic cycles this has proved to be just a stepping stone before the most aggressive phase, the non-stop rally that drives the Cycle to its peak. (…) We estimate this to take place within the (admittedly) wide range of $150,000 – $300,000, depending on market conditions and relevant global demand from ETFs,” the expert said. 

「在任何其他情況下，這都將是一個看跌信號，市場無法找到足夠多願意的買家將其推至新高。但從 BTC 的歷史週期來看，這被證明只是最激進階段之前的墊腳石，即推動週期達到頂峰的不間斷反彈。 （…）我們估計，這將在（誠然）150,000 美元至 300,000 美元的範圍內發生，具體取決於市場狀況和 ETF 的相關全球需求，」該專家表示。

Indicators to watch 

值得關注的指標

Based on the analysis, the key indicator signaling the potential rally is the three-week Linear Moving Average Convergence Divergence (LMACD). 

根據分析，預示潛在反彈的關鍵指標是三週線性移動平均線收斂分歧（LMACD）。

The expert noted that the indicator, trading within a channel-down pattern from the outset, tends to reach a critical juncture when it hits the 0.618 Fibonacci channel level. At this point, Bitcoin has historically closed above its record high and embarked on a robust rally.

該專家指出，該指標從一開始就處於通道下行模式中，當觸及 0.618 斐波那契通道水準時，往往會達到關鍵時刻。此時，比特幣歷史收盤價已高於歷史高位，並開始強勁反彈。

Furthermore, the Analysis suggested that the formation of a peak characterizes the final phase of this cycle. This occurs as the LMACD approaches the channel’s upper boundary and reverses, often preceding a bearish cross.

此外，分析顯示峰值的形成是此循環最後階段的特徵。這種情況發生在 LMACD 接近通道上邊界並反轉時，通常在看跌交叉之前。

Bitcoin price analysis

比特幣價格分析

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $66,283 with daily gains of almost 0.4%. On the weekly chart, BTC is up 5%. 

截至發稿時，比特幣交易價格為 66,283 美元，每日漲幅接近 0.4%。週線圖上，BTC 上漲 ​​5%。

Overall, the current Bitcoin price movement shows the cryptocurrency’s resilience after shrugging off the fallout from geopolitical tensions. Indeed, Bitcoin is establishing itself above the $65,000 mark amid a possible cooling down of tensions in the Middle East.

總體而言，目前的比特幣價格走勢顯示了該加密貨幣在擺脫地緣政治緊張局勢影響後的彈性。事實上，隨著中東緊張局勢可能降溫，比特幣正在站穩 65,000 美元大關之上。

The $65,000 mark remains pivotal for market participants, as it will play a key role if the analyst’s projections are to be realized.

65,000 美元大關對於市場參與者來說仍然至關重要，因為如果分析師的預測要實現，它將發揮關鍵作用。

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