Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating the post-halving phase, facing resistance below the last all-time high. As the crypto continues to find its footing, a section of the market believes that Bitcoin is in line to embark on a post-halving rally, an element backed by several analysts.

比特币（BTC）正在经历减半后阶段，面临着上次历史高点下方的阻力。随着加密货币继续站稳脚跟，一部分市场认为比特币有望在减半后开始反弹，这一点得到了几位分析师的支持。

For instance, crypto trading expert TradingShot acknowledged in a TradingView post on April 22 that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, struggling to surpass and sustainably close above its record-high resistance.

例如，加密货币交易专家 TradingShot 在 4 月 22 日的 TradingView 帖子中承认，比特币正处于关键时刻，正在努力超越并持续收于其历史高位阻力位之上。

According to the analyst, the pattern has been marked by a period of sideways consolidation, and while it might suggest bearish sentiments, history suggests otherwise.

这位分析师表示，该模式的特点是一段时期的横向盘整，虽然这可能表明看跌情绪，但历史表明并非如此。

TradingShot’s analysis noted that within Bitcoin’s historical cycles, such periods of consolidation often precede an aggressive non-stop rally, propelling the cryptocurrency to new heights. Therefore, the expert noted that Bitcoin will likely peak at $150,000 to $300,000 if the pattern repeats.

TradingShot 的分析指出，在比特币的历史周期中，这种盘整期通常会发生在激进的不间断反弹之前，将加密货币推向新的高度。因此，专家指出，如果这种模式重复，比特币可能会达到 15 万至 30 万美元的峰值。

“On any other occasion, that would be a bearish signal, an inability of the market to find enough willing buyers to push it to a new High. But with BTC’s historic cycles this has proved to be just a stepping stone before the most aggressive phase, the non-stop rally that drives the Cycle to its peak. (…) We estimate this to take place within the (admittedly) wide range of $150,000 – $300,000, depending on market conditions and relevant global demand from ETFs,” the expert said. 

“在任何其他情况下，这都将是一个看跌信号，市场无法找到足够多愿意的买家将其推至新高。但从 BTC 的历史周期来看，这被证明只是最激进阶段之前的垫脚石，即推动周期达到顶峰的不间断反弹。 （……）我们估计，这将在（诚然）150,000 美元至 300,000 美元的范围内发生，具体取决于市场状况和 ETF 的相关全球需求，”该专家表示。

Indicators to watch 

值得关注的指标

Based on the analysis, the key indicator signaling the potential rally is the three-week Linear Moving Average Convergence Divergence (LMACD). 

根据分析，预示潜在反弹的关键指标是三周线性移动平均线收敛分歧（LMACD）。

The expert noted that the indicator, trading within a channel-down pattern from the outset, tends to reach a critical juncture when it hits the 0.618 Fibonacci channel level. At this point, Bitcoin has historically closed above its record high and embarked on a robust rally.

该专家指出，该指标从一开始就处于通道下行模式中，当触及 0.618 斐波那契通道水平时，往往会达到关键时刻。此时，比特币历史收盘价已高于历史高位，并开始强劲反弹。

Furthermore, the Analysis suggested that the formation of a peak characterizes the final phase of this cycle. This occurs as the LMACD approaches the channel’s upper boundary and reverses, often preceding a bearish cross.

此外，分析表明峰值的形成是该循环最后阶段的特征。这种情况发生在 LMACD 接近通道上边界并反转时，通常在看跌交叉之前。

Bitcoin price analysis

比特币价格分析

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $66,283 with daily gains of almost 0.4%. On the weekly chart, BTC is up 5%. 

截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 66,283 美元，日涨幅接近 0.4%。从周线图来看，BTC 上涨了 5%。

Overall, the current Bitcoin price movement shows the cryptocurrency’s resilience after shrugging off the fallout from geopolitical tensions. Indeed, Bitcoin is establishing itself above the $65,000 mark amid a possible cooling down of tensions in the Middle East.

总体而言，当前的比特币价格走势显示了该加密货币在摆脱地缘政治紧张局势影响后的弹性。事实上，随着中东紧张局势可能降温，比特币正在站稳 65,000 美元大关之上。

The $65,000 mark remains pivotal for market participants, as it will play a key role if the analyst’s projections are to be realized.

65,000 美元大关对于市场参与者来说仍然至关重要，因为如果分析师的预测要实现，它将发挥关键作用。

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