加密貨幣尚未崩潰……加密貨幣很快就會崩潰嗎？

The cryptocurrency landscape saw a sea of red on Monday, September 11, with traders on edge about the potential implications of a series of forthcoming events, notably the FTX’s potential $3 billion liquidation and the impending release of the CPI data, both scheduled for September 13.

9 月11 日星期一，加密貨幣前景一片紅海，交易員對一系列即將發生的事件的潛在影響感到緊張，特別是FTX 潛在的30 億美元清算和即將發布的CPI 數據（兩者均定於9月13 日發布）。

Market Statistics

Recent statistics from QuantifyCrypto reveal a downtrend across the top 50 cryptocurrency projects. The overall market cap of cryptocurrencies plunged by over $10 billion, marking an accumulated decline of nearly 2% over the previous 24-hour period.

QuantifyCrypto 的最新統計數據顯示，前 50 個加密貨幣項目呈現下降趨勢。加密貨幣整體市值暴跌超100億美元，過去24小時累計跌幅近2%。

FTX Liquidation: What’s the Story?

FTX 清算：故事是怎麼樣的？

FTX reportedly holds $3.4 billion in crypto assets, set to be sold off in increments ranging from $100-$200 million each week. However, this action hinges on a decision from the Delaware Bankruptcy Court, which was due on September 13.

If the court grants permission for this massive liquidation, the specifics surrounding the size and regularity of these liquidations will be strategized to reduce any potential adverse market impacts. Notably, as of now, there’s no evidence to suggest that the planned FTX sell-off on September 13th has significantly impacted the market. Furthermore, if it were to occur, the process would extend over several business days.

如果法院批准此次大規模清算，將針對這些清算的規模和規律性的具體細節制定策略，以減少任何潛在的不利市場影響。值得注意的是，截至目前，沒有證據表明 9 月 13 日計劃的 FTX 拋售對市場產生了重大影響。此外，如果發生這種情況，該過程將持續幾個工作天。

A recent tweet from Aaron Bennett (@AaronDBennett) listed FTX’s crypto holdings ready for liquidation:

$685 million in Solana (SOL)
$529 million in FTX token (FTT)

價值 5.29 億美元的 FTX 代幣 (FTT)

$268 million in Bitcoin (BTC)

價值 2.68 億美元的比特幣 (BTC)

$90 million in Ethereum (ETH)

價值 9000 萬美元的以太幣 (ETH)

$67 million in Aptos (APT)

Aptos (APT) 價值 6,700 萬美元

$42 million in Dogecoin (DOGE)

價值 4,200 萬美元的狗狗幣 (DOGE)

$39 million in Polygon (MATIC)

Polygon (MATIC) 價值 3,900 萬美元

$35 million in BitDAO (BIT)

價值 3500 萬美元的 BitDAO (BIT)

$29 million in XRP token (XRP)

價值 2,900 萬美元的瑞波幣 (XRP)

On September 13th, #FTX will probably get the courts approval to sell these coins:

$685 million of $SOL
$529 million of $FTT
$268 million of #btc
$90 million of #eth
$67 million of $APT
$42 million of #doge
$39 million of $matic
$35 million of $BIT
$29 million of $XRP… pic.twitter.com/RdzXHQzUO2
— Aaron Bennett (@AaronDBennett) September 10, 2023
9 月13 日，#FTX 可能會獲得法院批准出售這些代幣：$SOL 中的6.85 億美元、#FTT 中的5.29 億美元、#btc 中的2.68 億美元、#eth 中的9000 萬美元、# APT 中的6700 萬美元、#doge 中的4200 萬美元、#doge 中的3900 萬美元$matic$3500 萬美元BIT$2900 萬美元XRP… pic.twitter.com/RdzXHQzUO2 — Aaron Bennett (@AaronDBennett) 2023 年月10 日

Will Cryptocurrencies Crash? U.S. CPI Data to Watch For

加密貨幣會崩潰嗎？值得關注的美國CPI數據

Coinciding with the anticipated court ruling on the FTX’s potential asset sell-off is the release of August’s U.S. CPI data. This data is a pivotal factor in guiding the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, thereby influencing both the crypto and stock markets.

An expected CPI rise to 3.6% (up from the previous month’s 3.2%) suggests that the cryptocurrency market might already be adjusting for another potential hike in interest rates. Yet, it’s noteworthy that while the year-on-year August CPI is projected to jump by 40 basis points over July’s figures, the Federal Reserve typically leans on the Core CPI data for its decision-making process. Given the forecasted decline in August’s Core CPI to 4.3% (down from July’s 4.7%), the market largely anticipates no hikes in the interest rates come September 20.

預期 CPI 升至 3.6%（高於上個月的 3.2%）表明加密貨幣市場可能已經在針對另一次潛在的升息進行調整。然而值得注意的是，雖然8月CPI年比預計將較7月上漲40個基點，但聯準會通常會依賴核心CPI數據進行決策。鑑於 8 月核心 CPI 預計將下降至 4.3%（低於 7 月的 4.7%），市場很大程度上預計 9 月 20 日不會升息。