加密货币尚未崩溃……加密货币很快就会崩溃吗？

The cryptocurrency landscape saw a sea of red on Monday, September 11, with traders on edge about the potential implications of a series of forthcoming events, notably the FTX’s potential $3 billion liquidation and the impending release of the CPI data, both scheduled for September 13.

9 月 11 日星期一，加密货币前景一片红海，交易员对一系列即将发生的事件的潜在影响感到紧张，特别是 FTX 潜在的 30 亿美元清算和即将发布的 CPI 数据，两者均定于 9 月 13 日发布。

Market Statistics

市场统计

Recent statistics from QuantifyCrypto reveal a downtrend across the top 50 cryptocurrency projects. The overall market cap of cryptocurrencies plunged by over $10 billion, marking an accumulated decline of nearly 2% over the previous 24-hour period.

QuantifyCrypto 的最新统计数据显示，前 50 个加密货币项目呈下降趋势。加密货币整体市值暴跌超100亿美元，过去24小时累计跌幅近2%。

FTX Liquidation: What’s the Story?

FTX 清算：故事是怎样的？

FTX reportedly holds $3.4 billion in crypto assets, set to be sold off in increments ranging from $100-$200 million each week. However, this action hinges on a decision from the Delaware Bankruptcy Court, which was due on September 13.

据报道，FTX 持有 34 亿美元的加密资产，并将每周以 100 至 2 亿美元的增量出售。然而，这一行动取决于特拉华州破产法院将于 9 月 13 日做出的决定。

If the court grants permission for this massive liquidation, the specifics surrounding the size and regularity of these liquidations will be strategized to reduce any potential adverse market impacts. Notably, as of now, there’s no evidence to suggest that the planned FTX sell-off on September 13th has significantly impacted the market. Furthermore, if it were to occur, the process would extend over several business days.

如果法院批准此次大规模清算，将针对这些清算的规模和规律性的具体细节制定策略，以减少任何潜在的不利市场影响。值得注意的是，截至目前，没有证据表明 9 月 13 日计划的 FTX 抛售对市场产生了重大影响。此外，如果发生这种情况，该过程将持续几个工作日。

A recent tweet from Aaron Bennett (@AaronDBennett) listed FTX’s crypto holdings ready for liquidation:

Aaron Bennett (@AaronDBennett) 最近的一条推文列出了 FTX 准备清算的加密资产：

$685 million in Solana (SOL)

Solana (SOL) 价值 6.85 亿美元

$529 million in FTX token (FTT)

价值 5.29 亿美元的 FTX 代币 (FTT)

$268 million in Bitcoin (BTC)

价值 2.68 亿美元的比特币 (BTC)

$90 million in Ethereum (ETH)

价值 9000 万美元的以太坊 (ETH)

$67 million in Aptos (APT)

Aptos (APT) 价值 6,700 万美元

$42 million in Dogecoin (DOGE)

价值 4200 万美元的狗狗币 (DOGE)

$39 million in Polygon (MATIC)

Polygon (MATIC) 价值 3,900 万美元

$35 million in BitDAO (BIT)

价值 3500 万美元的 BitDAO (BIT)

$29 million in XRP token (XRP)

价值 2900 万美元的瑞波币 (XRP)

On September 13th, #FTX will probably get the courts approval to sell these coins:

$685 million of $SOL
$529 million of $FTT
$268 million of #btc
$90 million of #eth
$67 million of $APT
$42 million of #doge
$39 million of $matic
$35 million of $BIT
$29 million of $XRP… pic.twitter.com/RdzXHQzUO2
— Aaron Bennett (@AaronDBennett) September 10, 2023
9 月 13 日，#FTX 可能会获得法院批准出售这些代币： $SOL 中的 6.85 亿美元 #FTT 中的 5.29 亿美元 #btc 中的 2.68 亿美元 #eth 中的 9000 万美元 #APT 中的 6700 万美元 #doge 中的 4200 万美元中的 3900 万美元$matic$3500 万美元 BIT$2900 万美元 XRP… pic.twitter.com/RdzXHQzUO2 — Aaron Bennett (@AaronDBennett) 2023 年 9 月 10 日

Will Cryptocurrencies Crash? U.S. CPI Data to Watch For

加密货币会崩溃吗？值得关注的美国CPI数据

Coinciding with the anticipated court ruling on the FTX’s potential asset sell-off is the release of August’s U.S. CPI data. This data is a pivotal factor in guiding the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, thereby influencing both the crypto and stock markets.

与预期法院对 FTX 潜在资产抛售的裁决同时发布的是 8 月份美国 CPI 数据。这些数据是指导美联储利率决策的关键因素，从而影响加密货币和股票市场。

An expected CPI rise to 3.6% (up from the previous month’s 3.2%) suggests that the cryptocurrency market might already be adjusting for another potential hike in interest rates. Yet, it’s noteworthy that while the year-on-year August CPI is projected to jump by 40 basis points over July’s figures, the Federal Reserve typically leans on the Core CPI data for its decision-making process. Given the forecasted decline in August’s Core CPI to 4.3% (down from July’s 4.7%), the market largely anticipates no hikes in the interest rates come September 20.

预期 CPI 升至 3.6%（高于上月的 3.2%）表明加密货币市场可能已经在针对另一次潜在的加息进行调整。然而值得注意的是，虽然8月CPI同比预计将较7月上涨40个基点，但美联储通常会依赖核心CPI数据进行决策。鉴于 8 月份核心 CPI 预计下降至 4.3%（低于 7 月份的 4.7%），市场很大程度上预计 9 月 20 日不会加息。