The Dogecoin (DOGE) holder base has become stable during the last few weeks, and its on-chain and price metrics have recently raised red flags for investors. These metrics could soon lead to a 40% correction in DOGE price.

過去幾週，狗狗幣（DOGE）的持有者基礎已經變得穩定，其鏈上和價格指標最近向投資者發出了危險信號。這些指標可能很快就會導致 DOGE 價格回檔 40%。

Will the DOGE community be able to hold the line, or is a bearish trend on the horizon?

DOGE 社群能否堅守陣線，或即將出現看跌趨勢？

Dogecoin Number of Holders Remains Stable

DOGE holder base surged by over half a million in just two weeks during February. On February 2, the number of holders reached a new high of 6.5 million, representing a nearly 10% increase from 5.82 million on January 28.

狗狗幣持有者數量保持穩定二月的短短兩週內，狗狗幣持有者數量激增超過 50 萬。 2月2日，持有量再創新高，達到650萬，較1月28日的582萬成長近10%。

DOGE price followed that growth, from $0.081 to $0.195 between February 10 and March 4. However, the number of holders became stable after all that growth.

DOGE 價格跟隨這一增長，在 2 月 10 日至 3 月 4 日期間從 0.081 美元上漲至 0.195 美元。然而，在所有增長之後，持有者數量變得穩定。

Between March 7 and March 12, the number of DOGE holders grew by roughly 100,000, reaching 6.57 million. While 100,000 might seem significant for other coins, this represents a minimal increase of only 0.15%. Recently, DOGE price growth has been strongly correlated with substantial growth in the number of holders. Since this number has stagnated in the past week, it could lead to price stabilization or a correction.

DOGE 價格和持有者數量。來源：Santiment.Sponsored.divm，.divd {display: none;}@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {.divm {display: block;}}@media screen and (min-width: 769px) {. divd {display: block;}}3月7日至3月12日期間，DOGE持有者數量增加了約10萬，達到657萬。雖然 100,000 對於其他代幣似乎很重要，但這僅代表 0.15% 的最小增長。最近，DOGE 價格的成長與持有者數量的大幅成長密切相關。由於這一數字在過去一周停滯不前，因此可能導致價格穩定或調整。

DOGE MVRV Sees Rapid Spike

A dramatic rise in the MVRV Z Score from 0.062 to 1.40 over just two weeks for DOGE signifies a potential case of overvaluation. This is the biggest MVRV Z-Score for DOGE since November 2021. That time after reaching those levels, DOGE price corrected by almost 50% in the next month.

DOGE MVRV 出現快速飆升 DOGE 的 MVRV Z 分數在短短兩週內從 0.062 急劇上升至 1.40，這意味著潛在的估值過高。這是 DOGE 自 2021 年 11 月以來最大的 MVRV Z 分數。當時達到這些水準後，DOGE 價格在下個月回檔了近 50%。

Imagine the MVRV Z-Score as a thermometer gauging how “hot” or overvalued an asset is compared to its historical average price. A score of 0.062 suggests DOGE was slightly on the warm side but not burning up. However, the significant jump to 1.40 indicates the temperature has risen dramatically.

DOGE 價格和 MVRV Z 分數。來源：Santiment.SponsoredSponsored 將 MVRV Z 分數想像為溫度計，用於衡量資產與其歷史平均價格相比的「熱度」或高估程度。 0.062 的分數顯示 DOGE 稍微偏暖，但沒有燃燒。然而，大幅躍升至 1.40 表示氣溫急劇上升。

Generally, a high MVRV Z-Score is seen as a sign that a correction might be looming. This means the price could drop to reflect its historical value better. In simpler terms, DOGE might be due for a price decrease based on this metric.

一般來說，高 MVRV Z 分數被視為修正可能即將來臨的跡象。這意味著價格可能會下降以更好地反映其歷史價值。簡單來說，根據這項指標，DOGE 的價格可能會下降。

DOGE Price Prediction: Bearish Signs Ahead

Analyzing DOGE Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), it’s clear that recently, the long-term EMA (200 days) crossed above the more short-term EMA lines, the so-called Death Cross. Also, the DOGE price line is currently below the long-term EMA lines. Usually, this suggests a possible downtrend or dominance of bearish sentiment.

DOGE 價格預測：看跌跡象 分析 DOGE 指數移動平均線 (EMA)，很明顯，最近長期 EMA（200 天）突破了更短期的 EMA 線，即所謂的死亡交叉。此外，DOGE 價格線目前低於長期 EMA 線。通常，這表明可能出現下降趨勢或看跌情緒占主導地位。

However, DOGE has a strong historical correlation with BTC and ETH. If these two coins continue to rise, DOGE price could return to $0.20 and above soon, even with bearish metrics.

DOGE 價格、EMA、支撐位和阻力位。資料來源：Tradingview。然而，DOGE 與 BTC 和 ETH 具有很強的歷史相關性。如果這兩種代幣繼續上漲，即使指標看跌，DOGE 價格可能很快就會回到 0.20 美元及以上。

Given the stable number of holders and the rise of MVRV Z-Score, alongside the recent move of EMA lines, the DOGE price could test the $0.16 support zone soon. If it’s unable to resist it, it could decline further to $0.12 or even $0.10, a 40% correction.

鑑於持有者數量穩定和 MVRV Z 分數的上升，加上 EMA 線最近的移動，DOGE 價格可能很快就會測試 0.16 美元的支撐區域。如果它無法抵抗，它可能會進一步下跌至 0.12 美元，甚至 0.10 美元，即 40% 的回調。