The Dogecoin (DOGE) holder base has become stable during the last few weeks, and its on-chain and price metrics have recently raised red flags for investors. These metrics could soon lead to a 40% correction in DOGE price.

过去几周，狗狗币（DOGE）的持有者基础已经变得稳定，其链上和价格指标最近向投资者发出了危险信号。这些指标可能很快就会导致 DOGE 价格回调 40%。

Will the DOGE community be able to hold the line, or is a bearish trend on the horizon?

DOGE 社区能否坚守阵线，或者即将出现看跌趋势？

Dogecoin Number of Holders Remains Stable

DOGE holder base surged by over half a million in just two weeks during February. On February 2, the number of holders reached a new high of 6.5 million, representing a nearly 10% increase from 5.82 million on January 28.

狗狗币持有者数量保持稳定二月份的短短两周内，狗狗币持有者数量激增超过 50 万。 2月2日，持有量再创新高，达到650万，较1月28日的582万增长近10%。

DOGE price followed that growth, from $0.081 to $0.195 between February 10 and March 4. However, the number of holders became stable after all that growth.

DOGE 价格跟随这一增长，在 2 月 10 日至 3 月 4 日期间从 0.081 美元上涨至 0.195 美元。然而，在所有增长之后，持有者数量变得稳定。

Between March 7 and March 12, the number of DOGE holders grew by roughly 100,000, reaching 6.57 million. While 100,000 might seem significant for other coins, this represents a minimal increase of only 0.15%. Recently, DOGE price growth has been strongly correlated with substantial growth in the number of holders. Since this number has stagnated in the past week, it could lead to price stabilization or a correction.

DOGE 价格和持有者数量。来源：Santiment.Sponsored.divm，.divd {display: none;}@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {.divm {display: block;}}@media screen and (min-width: 769px) {. divd {display: block;}}3月7日至3月12日期间，DOGE持有者数量增加了约10万，达到657万。虽然 100,000 对于其他代币来说似乎很重要，但这仅代表 0.15% 的最小增长。最近，DOGE 价格的增长与持有者数量的大幅增长密切相关。由于这一数字在过去一周停滞不前，因此可能导致价格稳定或调整。

DOGE MVRV Sees Rapid Spike

A dramatic rise in the MVRV Z Score from 0.062 to 1.40 over just two weeks for DOGE signifies a potential case of overvaluation. This is the biggest MVRV Z-Score for DOGE since November 2021. That time after reaching those levels, DOGE price corrected by almost 50% in the next month.

DOGE MVRV 出现快速飙升 DOGE 的 MVRV Z 分数在短短两周内从 0.062 急剧上升至 1.40，这意味着潜在的估值过高。这是 DOGE 自 2021 年 11 月以来最大的 MVRV Z 分数。当时达到这些水平后，DOGE 价格在下个月回调了近 50%。

Imagine the MVRV Z-Score as a thermometer gauging how “hot” or overvalued an asset is compared to its historical average price. A score of 0.062 suggests DOGE was slightly on the warm side but not burning up. However, the significant jump to 1.40 indicates the temperature has risen dramatically.

DOGE 价格和 MVRV Z 分数。来源：Santiment.SponsoredSponsored 将 MVRV Z 分数想象为一个温度计，用于衡量资产与其历史平均价格相比的“热度”或高估程度。 0.062 的分数表明 DOGE 稍微偏暖，但没有燃烧。然而，大幅跃升至 1.40 表明气温急剧上升。

Generally, a high MVRV Z-Score is seen as a sign that a correction might be looming. This means the price could drop to reflect its historical value better. In simpler terms, DOGE might be due for a price decrease based on this metric.

一般来说，高 MVRV Z 分数被视为修正可能即将来临的迹象。这意味着价格可能会下降以更好地反映其历史价值。简单来说，根据这一指标，DOGE 的价格可能会下降。

DOGE Price Prediction: Bearish Signs Ahead

Analyzing DOGE Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), it’s clear that recently, the long-term EMA (200 days) crossed above the more short-term EMA lines, the so-called Death Cross. Also, the DOGE price line is currently below the long-term EMA lines. Usually, this suggests a possible downtrend or dominance of bearish sentiment.

DOGE 价格预测：看跌迹象 分析 DOGE 指数移动平均线 (EMA)，很明显，最近长期 EMA（200 天）突破了更短期的 EMA 线，即所谓的死亡交叉。此外，DOGE 价格线目前低于长期 EMA 线。通常，这表明可能出现下降趋势或看跌情绪占主导地位。

However, DOGE has a strong historical correlation with BTC and ETH. If these two coins continue to rise, DOGE price could return to $0.20 and above soon, even with bearish metrics.

DOGE 价格、EMA、支撑位和阻力位。资料来源：Tradingview。然而，DOGE 与 BTC 和 ETH 具有很强的历史相关性。如果这两种代币继续上涨，即使指标看跌，DOGE 价格也可能很快回到 0.20 美元及以上。

Given the stable number of holders and the rise of MVRV Z-Score, alongside the recent move of EMA lines, the DOGE price could test the $0.16 support zone soon. If it’s unable to resist it, it could decline further to $0.12 or even $0.10, a 40% correction.

鉴于持有者数量稳定和 MVRV Z 分数的上升，加上 EMA 线最近的移动，DOGE 价格可能很快会测试 0.16 美元的支撑区域。如果它无法抵抗，它可能会进一步下跌至 0.12 美元，甚至 0.10 美元，即 40% 的回调。