Crypto Expert Boldly Claims Bitcoin's Peak May Have Passed

加密貨幣專家大膽聲稱比特幣的頂峰可能已經過去

Cryptocurrency expert Peter Brandt has made a bold claim: the Bitcoin peak for this market cycle may have already occurred. This conclusion stems from his "exponential decay" thesis, which he believes could ultimately benefit the Bitcoin ecosystem.

加密貨幣專家 Peter Brandt 做出了一個大膽的斷言：本次市場週期的比特幣高峰可能已經出現。這一結論源於他的「指數衰減」論文，他認為這最終將使比特幣生態系統受益。

Why Bitcoin's Price Has Topped

為什麼比特幣的價格已經見頂

Brandt argues that historical data indicates that Bitcoin's price has reached its apex. He cites an "exponential decay" pattern that applies to the cryptocurrency. This thesis is based on the observation that Bitcoin's percentage gain has diminished significantly in each subsequent bull cycle.

布蘭特認為，歷史數據顯示比特幣的價格已達到頂峰。他引用了適用於加密貨幣的「指數衰減」模式。本論文基於這樣的觀察：比特幣的百分比漲幅在隨後的每個牛市週期中都顯著下降。

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For example, between 2015 and 2017, Bitcoin experienced a 122x surge from its market low to high. However, this represented only 21.3% of Bitcoin's price gain in the previous cycle (2011-2013).

例如，2015 年至 2017 年間，比特幣經歷了從市場低點到高點的 122 倍飆升。然而，這僅佔上一周期（2011-2013 年）比特幣價格漲幅的 21.3%。

A similar trend occurred between 2018 and 2021. Despite a 22x increase, Bitcoin only achieved 18% of the price increase seen in the preceding cycle. Based on this premise, Brandt predicts that the current market cycle will follow a similar pattern, with Bitcoin likely to gain approximately 20% of the previous cycle's price increase.

2018 年至 2021 年也出現了類似的趨勢。基於這個前提，布蘭特預測當前的市場週期將遵循類似的模式，比特幣可能會獲得上一週期價格漲幅的約 20%。

Using $15,473 as the market low for this cycle, he calculates that 20% of the previous cycle's gain would translate to a market high of $72,723. Notably, Bitcoin has already reached this level on its way to a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750.

使用 15,473 美元作為本週期的市場低點，他計算出上一周期收益的 20% 將轉化為市場高點 72,723 美元。值得注意的是，比特幣已經達到了這一水平，並創下了 73,750 美元的歷史新高 (ATH)。

Exponential Decay: A Bullish Indicator for Bitcoin

指數衰減：比特幣看漲指標

While acknowledging that Bitcoin historically experiences its most significant price gains after the Bitcoin halving (which recently occurred), Brandt emphasizes the impact of exponential decay. This has led him to believe that there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle.

雖然布蘭特承認比特幣歷史上在比特幣減半（最近發生）後經歷了最顯著的價格上漲，但他強調了指數衰減的影響。這讓他相信比特幣有 25% 的可能性已經在這個週期見頂。

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From a "classical charting point of view," Brandt suggests that Bitcoin retains the potential for substantial parabolic moves to the upside, even if it does not occur immediately.

從「經典圖表的角度」來看，布蘭特認為比特幣保留了大幅拋物線上漲的潛力，即使它不會立即發生。

He provides an example of what Bitcoin's chart could resemble if it rallies above $100,000. Brandt also draws parallels to Gold's price action from August 2020 to March 2024, suggesting a similar trajectory for Bitcoin's price in the near future. Notably, he has recently predicted that Bitcoin will soon become "King over Gold."

他提供了一個例子，說明如果比特幣反彈至 10 萬美元以上，其圖表可能會是什麼樣子。 Brandt 也與 2020 年 8 月至 2024 年 3 月黃金的價格走勢進行了比較，顯示在不久的將來比特幣的價格也會出現類似的軌跡。值得注意的是，他最近預測比特幣很快就會成為「黃金之王」。

Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Investing carries inherent risks, and readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

免責聲明：本文僅用於教育目的，並不構成財務建議。投資具有固有的風險，建議讀者在做出任何投資決定之前進行徹底的研究。