Crypto Expert Boldly Claims Bitcoin's Peak May Have Passed

加密货币专家大胆声称比特币的顶峰可能已经过去

Cryptocurrency expert Peter Brandt has made a bold claim: the Bitcoin peak for this market cycle may have already occurred. This conclusion stems from his "exponential decay" thesis, which he believes could ultimately benefit the Bitcoin ecosystem.

加密货币专家 Peter Brandt 做出了一个大胆的断言：本次市场周期的比特币峰值可能已经出现。这一结论源于他的“指数衰减”论文，他认为这最终将使比特币生态系统受益。

Why Bitcoin's Price Has Topped

为什么比特币的价格已经见顶

Brandt argues that historical data indicates that Bitcoin's price has reached its apex. He cites an "exponential decay" pattern that applies to the cryptocurrency. This thesis is based on the observation that Bitcoin's percentage gain has diminished significantly in each subsequent bull cycle.

布兰特认为，历史数据表明比特币的价格已达到顶峰。他引用了适用于加密货币的“指数衰减”模式。本论文基于这样的观察：比特币的百分比涨幅在随后的每个牛市周期中都显着下降。

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For example, between 2015 and 2017, Bitcoin experienced a 122x surge from its market low to high. However, this represented only 21.3% of Bitcoin's price gain in the previous cycle (2011-2013).

例如，2015 年至 2017 年间，比特币经历了从市场低点到高点的 122 倍飙升。然而，这仅占上一周期（2011-2013 年）比特币价格涨幅的 21.3%。

A similar trend occurred between 2018 and 2021. Despite a 22x increase, Bitcoin only achieved 18% of the price increase seen in the preceding cycle. Based on this premise, Brandt predicts that the current market cycle will follow a similar pattern, with Bitcoin likely to gain approximately 20% of the previous cycle's price increase.

2018 年至 2021 年也出现了类似的趋势。尽管比特币上涨了 22 倍，但其价格涨幅仅达到上一周期的 18%。基于这个前提，布兰特预测当前的市场周期将遵循类似的模式，比特币可能获得上一周期价格涨幅的约 20%。

Using $15,473 as the market low for this cycle, he calculates that 20% of the previous cycle's gain would translate to a market high of $72,723. Notably, Bitcoin has already reached this level on its way to a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750.

使用 15,473 美元作为本周期的市场低点，他计算出上一周期收益的 20% 将转化为市场高点 72,723 美元。值得注意的是，比特币已经达到了这一水平，并创下了 73,750 美元的历史新高 (ATH)。

Exponential Decay: A Bullish Indicator for Bitcoin

指数衰减：比特币看涨指标

While acknowledging that Bitcoin historically experiences its most significant price gains after the Bitcoin halving (which recently occurred), Brandt emphasizes the impact of exponential decay. This has led him to believe that there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle.

虽然布兰特承认比特币历史上在比特币减半（最近发生）后经历了最显着的价格上涨，但他强调了指数衰减的影响。这让他相信比特币有 25% 的可能性已经在这个周期见顶。

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From a "classical charting point of view," Brandt suggests that Bitcoin retains the potential for substantial parabolic moves to the upside, even if it does not occur immediately.

从“经典图表的角度”来看，布兰特认为比特币保留了大幅抛物线上涨的潜力，即使它不会立即发生。

He provides an example of what Bitcoin's chart could resemble if it rallies above $100,000. Brandt also draws parallels to Gold's price action from August 2020 to March 2024, suggesting a similar trajectory for Bitcoin's price in the near future. Notably, he has recently predicted that Bitcoin will soon become "King over Gold."

他提供了一个例子，说明如果比特币反弹至 100,000 美元以上，其图表可能会是什么样子。 Brandt 还与 2020 年 8 月至 2024 年 3 月黄金的价格走势进行了比较，表明在不久的将来比特币的价格也会出现类似的轨迹。值得注意的是，他最近预测比特币将很快成为“黄金之王”。

Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Investing carries inherent risks, and readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文仅用于教育目的，并不构成财务建议。投资具有固有的风险，建议读者在做出任何投资决定之前进行彻底的研究。