Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting, Markets Anticipate Rate Cuts and Price Impact

在聯準會會議之前，市場預期降息和價格影響

Economists' Predictions

經濟學家的預測

In a Bloomberg survey of 114 economists, 104 anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the first in four years. Nine analysts forecast a 50-bps reduction.

彭博社對 114 名經濟學家進行的調查顯示，104 名經濟學家預計聯準會將降息 25 個基點，這是四年來的首次。九位分析師預測降幅為 50 個基點。

Market Expectations

市場預期

According to QCP Capital, citing Fed Fund Futures pricing, markets give a 66% probability of a 50-bps cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, September 18. The likelihood of a 25-bps cut is estimated at 33%.

根據 QCP Capital 引用聯邦基金期貨定價的數據，市場給出的聯邦公開市場委員會 9 月 18 日星期三會議上降息 50 個基點的可能性為 66%。

CME FedWatch data indicated a 61% probability of a 50-bps cut as of September 16. Last week, trader expectations were only 14%.

CME FedWatch 數據顯示，截至 9 月 16 日，降息 50 個基點的可能性為 61%。

Impact on Price Movements

對價格變動的影響

QCP Capital analysts caution that the impact of rate cuts is currently uncertain. In an investor note, they emphasize the influence of the monetary policy decision, Dot plot projections, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-FOMC remarks on price movements.

QCP Capital 分析師警告稱，降息的影響目前尚不確定。在一份投資者報告中，他們強調了貨幣政策決定、點圖預測以及聯準會主席鮑威爾在聯邦公開市場委員會後言論對價格走勢的影響。

Despite the uncertainty, QCP predicts high volatility in the days following the meeting as traders adjust their positions. The rate cut could also signal the onset of significant macro trends.

儘管存在不確定性，但 QCP 預計，隨著交易員調整頭寸，會議後幾天將出現劇烈波動。降息也可能預示著重大宏觀趨勢的開始。

Crypto Market Reaction

加密貨幣市場反應

In the hours leading up to the FOMC meeting, the total cryptocurrency market experienced a 4% decline. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) each lost over 2% in the past 24 hours. Other major altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Toncoin (TON) also saw losses.

在 FOMC 會議召開前的幾個小時內，整個加密貨幣市場下跌了 4%。比特幣 (BTC) 和以太幣 (ETH) 在過去 24 小時內均下跌超過 2%。其他主要山寨幣，如 Solana (SOL)、Ripple (XRP)、Dogecoin (DOGE) 和 Toncoin (TON) 也出現了損失。

Industry Perspectives

產業視角

Advocates argue that increased liquidity in a low-rate environment will drive price increases. Market participants predict that historical patterns will repeat in the fourth quarter, leading to a surge in prices.

支持者認為，低利率環境下流動性的增加將推動價格上漲。市場參與者預測，歷史模式將在第四季重演，導致價格飆升。

However, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon downplays the significance of the FOMC meeting and the Fed's pivot. He believes that global events such as geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East have a greater impact on the economy.

然而，摩根大通執行長傑米戴蒙淡化了聯邦公開市場委員會會議和聯準會轉向的重要性。他認為，歐洲、中東地緣政治緊張局勢等全球事件對經濟影響較大。