Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting, Markets Anticipate Rate Cuts and Price Impact

在美联储会议之前，市场预期降息和价格影响

Economists' Predictions

经济学家的预测

In a Bloomberg survey of 114 economists, 104 anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the first in four years. Nine analysts forecast a 50-bps reduction.

彭博社对 114 名经济学家进行的调查显示，104 名经济学家预计美联储将降息 25 个基点，这是四年来的首次。九位分析师预测降幅为 50 个基点。

Market Expectations

市场预期

According to QCP Capital, citing Fed Fund Futures pricing, markets give a 66% probability of a 50-bps cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, September 18. The likelihood of a 25-bps cut is estimated at 33%.

根据 QCP Capital 援引联邦基金期货定价的数据，市场给出的联邦公开市场委员会 9 月 18 日星期三会议上降息 50 个基点的可能性为 66%。降息 25 个基点的可能性估计为 33%。

CME FedWatch data indicated a 61% probability of a 50-bps cut as of September 16. Last week, trader expectations were only 14%.

CME FedWatch 数据显示，截至 9 月 16 日，降息 50 个基点的可能性为 61%。上周，交易员预期仅为 14%。

Impact on Price Movements

对价格变动的影响

QCP Capital analysts caution that the impact of rate cuts is currently uncertain. In an investor note, they emphasize the influence of the monetary policy decision, Dot plot projections, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-FOMC remarks on price movements.

QCP Capital 分析师警告称，降息的影响目前尚不确定。在一份投资者报告中，他们强调了货币政策决定、点图预测以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会后言论对价格走势的影响。

Despite the uncertainty, QCP predicts high volatility in the days following the meeting as traders adjust their positions. The rate cut could also signal the onset of significant macro trends.

尽管存在不确定性，但 QCP 预计，随着交易员调整头寸，会议后几天将出现剧烈波动。降息还可能预示着重大宏观趋势的开始。

Crypto Market Reaction

加密货币市场反应

In the hours leading up to the FOMC meeting, the total cryptocurrency market experienced a 4% decline. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) each lost over 2% in the past 24 hours. Other major altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Toncoin (TON) also saw losses.

在 FOMC 会议召开前的几个小时内，整个加密货币市场下跌了 4%。比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 在过去 24 小时内均下跌超过 2%。其他主要山寨币，如 Solana (SOL)、Ripple (XRP)、Dogecoin (DOGE) 和 Toncoin (TON) 也出现了损失。

Industry Perspectives

行业视角

Advocates argue that increased liquidity in a low-rate environment will drive price increases. Market participants predict that historical patterns will repeat in the fourth quarter, leading to a surge in prices.

支持者认为，低利率环境下流动性的增加将推动价格上涨。市场参与者预测，历史模式将在第四季度重演，导致价格飙升。

However, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon downplays the significance of the FOMC meeting and the Fed's pivot. He believes that global events such as geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East have a greater impact on the economy.

然而，摩根大通首席执行官杰米戴蒙淡化了联邦公开市场委员会会议和美联储转向的重要性。他认为，欧洲、中东地缘政治紧张局势等全球性事件对经济影响较大。