Bitcoin's Price Trend Analysis

比特幣價格趨勢分析

Analyst Opinion

分析師觀點

Top crypto analyst Ali expresses concerns about potential future declines in Bitcoin's value. Ali observes a pattern of price corrections following rejections of Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio from its 90-day average since May 2024. The latest rejection has resulted in a 10% depreciation, suggesting the trend may persist.

頂級加密貨幣分析師阿里對比特幣價值未來可能下跌表示擔憂。 Ali 觀察到，在比特幣的市值與實現價值(MVRV) 比率低於2024 年5 月以來的90 天平均水平之後，價格出現了調整模式。趨勢可能會持續下去。

MVRV Ratio Indicator

MVRV 比率指標

The MVRV ratio gauges whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued by comparing the average purchase price of most coins with their current market value. Historically, rejections of this ratio from its 90-day average have preceded significant price corrections. Ali's analysis shows that each such rejection since May 2024 has led to a substantial price drop.

MVRV 比率透過將大多數硬幣的平均購買價格與其當前市場價值進行比較來衡量比特幣是否被高估或低估。從歷史上看，該比率低於 90 天平均線的情況發生在價格大幅調整之前。阿里的分析顯示，自2024年5月以來，每次此類拒絕都會導致價格大幅下跌。

Historical Trend and Rejection Impact

歷史趨勢和拒絕影響

Since May, each MVRV ratio rejection has triggered substantial Bitcoin corrections. In May, Bitcoin fell 16%, followed by 26% and 29% declines in June and July, respectively. August and September witnessed drops of 29% and 19%. The latest rejection in late September has already caused a 10% dip, indicating potential for further downside movement.

自 5 月以來，每次 MVRV 比率被拒絕都引發了比特幣的大幅調整。 5 月，比特幣下跌 16%，隨後 6 月和 7 月分別下跌 26% 和 29%。 8月和9月分別下降29%和19%。 9 月底的最新拒絕已導致股價下跌 10%，顯示有可能進一步下跌。

MVRV Oscillator

MVRV 振盪器

The MVRV oscillator, represented by purple dots on Ali's chart, measures Bitcoin's momentum and shifts between positive and negative trends. When the MVRV ratio is rejected at the 90-day average, the oscillator typically signals a shift to negative momentum, coinciding with sharp price decreases.

MVRV 振盪器（由 Ali 圖表上的紫色點表示）衡量比特幣的動量以及正負趨勢之間的變化。當 MVRV 比率被拒絕在 90 日平均線時，振盪器通常會發出轉向負動量的訊號，同時價格急劇下跌。

This pattern suggests Bitcoin's current price weakness may continue. Ali's analysis indicates that the oscillator's transition to negative momentum has historically prompted further declines. Traders should anticipate volatility if this trend persists.

這種模式表明比特幣當前的價格疲軟可能會持續下去。阿里的分析表明，震盪指標向負動量的轉變歷來會導致進一步下跌。如果這種趨勢持續下去，交易者應該預期波動性。

Risks and Cautions

風險及注意事項

Previous MVRV rejections have been followed by notable price corrections. Ali's analysis suggests Bitcoin may experience further losses if the pattern continues. Given the 10% drop since the latest rejection, traders are concerned about potential additional declines.

此前 MVRV 被拒絕後，價格出現了顯著調整。阿里的分析表明，如果這種模式持續下去，比特幣可能會遭受進一步的損失。鑑於自上次拒絕以來已下跌 10%，交易員擔心潛在的進一步下跌。

Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor the MVRV ratio for signs of continued Bitcoin price weakness.

建議交易者謹慎行事，並密切關注 MVRV 比率，以發現比特幣價格持續疲軟的跡象。