Bitcoin's Price Trend Analysis

比特币价格趋势分析

Analyst Opinion

分析师观点

Top crypto analyst Ali expresses concerns about potential future declines in Bitcoin's value. Ali observes a pattern of price corrections following rejections of Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio from its 90-day average since May 2024. The latest rejection has resulted in a 10% depreciation, suggesting the trend may persist.

顶级加密货币分析师阿里对比特币价值未来可能下跌表示担忧。 Ali 观察到，在比特币的市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV) 比率低于 2024 年 5 月以来的 90 天平均水平之后，价格出现了调整模式。最新的拒绝导致了 10% 的贬值，表明这一趋势可能会持续下去。

MVRV Ratio Indicator

MVRV 比率指标

The MVRV ratio gauges whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued by comparing the average purchase price of most coins with their current market value. Historically, rejections of this ratio from its 90-day average have preceded significant price corrections. Ali's analysis shows that each such rejection since May 2024 has led to a substantial price drop.

MVRV 比率通过将大多数硬币的平均购买价格与其当前市场价值进行比较来衡量比特币是否被高估或低估。从历史上看，该比率低于 90 天平均线的情况发生在价格大幅调整之前。阿里的分析显示，自2024年5月以来，每次此类拒绝都会导致价格大幅下跌。

Historical Trend and Rejection Impact

历史趋势和拒绝影响

Since May, each MVRV ratio rejection has triggered substantial Bitcoin corrections. In May, Bitcoin fell 16%, followed by 26% and 29% declines in June and July, respectively. August and September witnessed drops of 29% and 19%. The latest rejection in late September has already caused a 10% dip, indicating potential for further downside movement.

自 5 月份以来，每次 MVRV 比率被拒绝都引发了比特币的大幅调整。 5 月，比特币下跌 16%，随后 6 月和 7 月分别下跌 26% 和 29%。 8月和9月分别下降29%和19%。 9 月底的最新拒绝已导致股价下跌 10%，表明有可能进一步下跌。

MVRV Oscillator

MVRV 振荡器

The MVRV oscillator, represented by purple dots on Ali's chart, measures Bitcoin's momentum and shifts between positive and negative trends. When the MVRV ratio is rejected at the 90-day average, the oscillator typically signals a shift to negative momentum, coinciding with sharp price decreases.

MVRV 振荡器（由 Ali 图表上的紫色点表示）衡量比特币的动量以及正负趋势之间的变化。当 MVRV 比率被拒绝在 90 日平均线时，振荡器通常会发出转向负动量的信号，同时价格急剧下跌。

This pattern suggests Bitcoin's current price weakness may continue. Ali's analysis indicates that the oscillator's transition to negative momentum has historically prompted further declines. Traders should anticipate volatility if this trend persists.

这种模式表明比特币当前的价格疲软可能会持续下去。阿里的分析表明，震荡指标向负动量的转变历来会导致进一步下跌。如果这种趋势持续下去，交易者应该预期波动性。

Risks and Cautions

风险及注意事项

Previous MVRV rejections have been followed by notable price corrections. Ali's analysis suggests Bitcoin may experience further losses if the pattern continues. Given the 10% drop since the latest rejection, traders are concerned about potential additional declines.

此前 MVRV 被拒绝后，价格出现了显着调整。阿里的分析表明，如果这种模式持续下去，比特币可能会遭受进一步的损失。鉴于自上次拒绝以来已下跌 10%，交易员担心潜在的进一步下跌。

Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor the MVRV ratio for signs of continued Bitcoin price weakness.

建议交易者谨慎行事，并密切关注 MVRV 比率，以发现比特币价格持续疲软的迹象。