Memecoins: Supercycle Fading or Flourishing?

Memecoins：超級週期衰退還是繁榮？

Memecoins have witnessed a remarkable surge in the past year, with tokens like Pepe (PEPE), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Popcat (POPCAT) skyrocketing over 30,000% since their inception. However, the expected influx of retail investors bidding memecoins to record highs has yet to materialize.

Memecoins 在過去的一年裡經歷了顯著的飆升，像 Pepe (PEPE)、Dogwifhat (WIF) 和 Popcat (POPCAT) 這樣的代幣自誕生以來飆升了 30,000% 以上。然而，散戶投資者湧入競購迷因幣至歷史新高的預期尚未實現。

"Dino Coins" Take Center Stage

「恐龍幣」成為焦點

Instead, older altcoins deemed "dino coins," such as Ripple's XRP and Tron (TRX), have recently hit new highs. Meanwhile, major new-cycle memecoins, excluding Bonk (BONK) and Pepe (PEPE), have failed to surpass their all-time highs, raising concerns about a premature end to the "memecoin supercycle."

相反，被視為「恐龍幣」的舊代幣，例如 Ripple 的 XRP 和 Tron (TRX)，最近創下了新高。同時，除 Bonk (BONK) 和 Pepe (PEPE) 之外的主要新周期 memecoin 未能突破歷史新高，引發了人們對「memecoin 超級週期」過早結束的擔憂。

The "Memecoin Supercycle" Concept

「Memecoin 超級週期」概念

The term "memecoin supercycle" was coined by Murad Mahmudov, an outspoken advocate for the asset class. He predicted that memecoins would continue to outperform legitimate projects amid a global retail investment frenzy.

「memecoin 超級週期」一詞是由該資產類別的直言不諱的倡導者 Murad Mahmudov 創造的。他預測，在全球散戶投資狂潮中，迷因幣的表現將繼續優於合法項目。

Memecoins, despite having no inherent utility, have a unique characteristic that makes them susceptible to extreme price fluctuations. Mahmudov argues that their valuation cannot be determined using traditional quantitative techniques, making them susceptible to speculative behavior.

儘管模因幣沒有固有的效用，但其獨特的特性使其容易受到極端價格波動的影響。馬哈茂多夫認為，他們的估值無法使用傳統的定量技術來確定，這使得他們容易受到投機行為的影響。

Memecoins: A Leveraged Play on Global Markets

Memecoins：全球市場上的槓桿遊戲

Mahmudov emphasizes that the key to assessing the longevity of the memecoin supercycle lies in global macro conditions. As long as global liquidity and risk-on sentiment prevail in traditional markets, memecoins will continue to thrive. However, a potential recession could dampen their performance.

馬哈茂多夫強調，評估迷因幣超級週期壽命的關鍵在於全球宏觀條件。只要全球流動性和風險情緒在傳統市場盛行，迷因幣就會繼續蓬勃發展。然而，潛在的經濟衰退可能會削弱他們的表現。

"Crypto as a whole is a 2x to 3x beta to traditional markets, and memecoins are like 7x to 8x beta," Mahmudov said.

馬哈茂多夫說：“加密貨幣作為一個整體，是傳統市場的 2 到 3 倍貝塔值，而 memecoin 的貝塔值是 7 到 8 倍。”

Could the Supercycle be Over?

超級週期會結束嗎？

Analysts like Pav Hundal agree with Mahmudov's assessment, suggesting that memecoins are a highly leveraged play on the crypto market and global financial conditions. If broader markets trend up, memecoins will outperform, but if they decline, memecoin investors could face significant losses.

Pav Hundal 等分析師同意 Mahmudov 的評估，認為 memecoin 是加密貨幣市場和全球金融狀況的一種高度槓桿化的遊戲。如果大盤上漲，memecoin 將跑贏大盤，但如果下跌，memecoin 投資者可能會面臨重大損失。

Hundal cautions against overexcitement and potential memecoin fatigue. However, he acknowledges that current liquidity conditions are favorable for the market.

洪達爾警告不要過度興奮和潛在的迷因幣疲勞。不過，他承認當前的流動性狀況對市場有利。

Community and Tokenized Identity

社區和令牌化身份

Mahmudov goes beyond the financial implications of memecoins, asserting that they provide more than just monetary returns. He likens memecoin communities to religious cults, offering a sense of meaning, identity, and belonging. This, in turn, strengthens the belief in the coin and its price targets.

馬哈茂多夫超越了迷因幣的財務影響，聲稱它們提供的不僅僅是金錢回報。他將迷因幣社群比喻為宗教崇拜，提供意義、認同和歸屬感。這反過來又增強了人們對代幣及其價格目標的信心。

Mahmudov attributes the recent outperformance of older altcoins like XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Chainlink (LINK) to the cult-like devotion of their communities.

Mahmudov 將 XRP、Cardano (ADA) 和 Chainlink (LINK) 等較舊的山寨幣最近的優異表現歸因於其社區的狂熱奉獻。

Concerns about Pump.fun

對 Pump.fun 的擔憂

The rise of Solana-based memecoin deployer Pump.fun has raised concerns about its impact on the industry. Critics argue that the protocol promotes excessive token creation and dilutes attention from established memecoins.

基於 Solana 的 memecoin 部署者 Pump.fun 的崛起引起了人們對其對該行業影響的擔憂。批評者認為，該協議促進了過度的代幣創建，並削弱了現有模因幣的注意力。

Mahmudov believes that the ability to launch memecoins with ease is an inevitable result of technological progress. He views Pump.fun as a "natural evolution" and suggests that it splits the market into gambling and long-term community building.

馬哈茂多夫認為，能夠輕鬆推出迷因幣是技術進步的必然結果。他將 Pump.fun 視為一種“自然演變”，並建議它將市場分為賭博和長期社區建設。

Mahmudov advises investors to analyze the two market segments separately, taking into account the distinct characteristics of each.

馬哈茂多夫建議投資人分別分析這兩個細分市場，考慮到每個細分市場的獨特特徵。