Memecoins: Supercycle Fading or Flourishing?

Memecoins：超级周期衰落还是繁荣？

Memecoins have witnessed a remarkable surge in the past year, with tokens like Pepe (PEPE), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Popcat (POPCAT) skyrocketing over 30,000% since their inception. However, the expected influx of retail investors bidding memecoins to record highs has yet to materialize.

Memecoins 在过去的一年里经历了显着的飙升，像 Pepe (PEPE)、Dogwifhat (WIF) 和 Popcat (POPCAT) 这样的代币自诞生以来飙升了 30,000% 以上。然而，散户投资者涌入竞购模因币至历史新高的预期尚未实现。

"Dino Coins" Take Center Stage

“恐龙币”成为焦点

Instead, older altcoins deemed "dino coins," such as Ripple's XRP and Tron (TRX), have recently hit new highs. Meanwhile, major new-cycle memecoins, excluding Bonk (BONK) and Pepe (PEPE), have failed to surpass their all-time highs, raising concerns about a premature end to the "memecoin supercycle."

相反，被视为“恐龙币”的旧代币，例如 Ripple 的 XRP 和 Tron (TRX)，最近创下了新高。与此同时，除 Bonk (BONK) 和 Pepe (PEPE) 之外的主要新周期 memecoin 未能突破历史新高，引发了人们对“memecoin 超级周期”过早结束的担忧。

The "Memecoin Supercycle" Concept

“Memecoin 超级周期”概念

The term "memecoin supercycle" was coined by Murad Mahmudov, an outspoken advocate for the asset class. He predicted that memecoins would continue to outperform legitimate projects amid a global retail investment frenzy.

“memecoin 超级周期”一词是由该资产类别的直言不讳的倡导者 Murad Mahmudov 创造的。他预测，在全球散户投资狂潮中，模因币的表现将继续优于合法项目。

Memecoins, despite having no inherent utility, have a unique characteristic that makes them susceptible to extreme price fluctuations. Mahmudov argues that their valuation cannot be determined using traditional quantitative techniques, making them susceptible to speculative behavior.

尽管模因币没有固有的效用，但其独特的特性使其容易受到极端价格波动的影响。马哈茂多夫认为，他们的估值无法使用传统的定量技术来确定，这使得他们容易受到投机行为的影响。

Memecoins: A Leveraged Play on Global Markets

Memecoins：全球市场上的杠杆游戏

Mahmudov emphasizes that the key to assessing the longevity of the memecoin supercycle lies in global macro conditions. As long as global liquidity and risk-on sentiment prevail in traditional markets, memecoins will continue to thrive. However, a potential recession could dampen their performance.

马哈茂多夫强调，评估模因币超级周期寿命的关键在于全球宏观条件。只要全球流动性和风险情绪在传统市场盛行，模因币就会继续蓬勃发展。然而，潜在的经济衰退可能会削弱他们的表现。

"Crypto as a whole is a 2x to 3x beta to traditional markets, and memecoins are like 7x to 8x beta," Mahmudov said.

马哈茂多夫说：“加密货币作为一个整体，是传统市场的 2 到 3 倍贝塔值，而 memecoin 的贝塔值是 7 到 8 倍。”

Could the Supercycle be Over?

超级周期会结束吗？

Analysts like Pav Hundal agree with Mahmudov's assessment, suggesting that memecoins are a highly leveraged play on the crypto market and global financial conditions. If broader markets trend up, memecoins will outperform, but if they decline, memecoin investors could face significant losses.

Pav Hundal 等分析师同意 Mahmudov 的评估，认为 memecoin 是加密货币市场和全球金融状况的一种高度杠杆化的游戏。如果大盘上涨，memecoin 将跑赢大盘，但如果下跌，memecoin 投资者可能会面临重大损失。

Hundal cautions against overexcitement and potential memecoin fatigue. However, he acknowledges that current liquidity conditions are favorable for the market.

洪达尔警告不要过度兴奋和潜在的模因币疲劳。不过，他承认当前的流动性状况对市场有利。

Community and Tokenized Identity

社区和令牌化身份

Mahmudov goes beyond the financial implications of memecoins, asserting that they provide more than just monetary returns. He likens memecoin communities to religious cults, offering a sense of meaning, identity, and belonging. This, in turn, strengthens the belief in the coin and its price targets.

马哈茂多夫超越了模因币的财务影响，声称它们提供的不仅仅是金钱回报。他将模因币社区比作宗教崇拜，提供意义、身份和归属感。这反过来又增强了人们对代币及其价格目标的信心。

Mahmudov attributes the recent outperformance of older altcoins like XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Chainlink (LINK) to the cult-like devotion of their communities.

Mahmudov 将 XRP、Cardano (ADA) 和 Chainlink (LINK) 等较旧的山寨币最近的优异表现归因于其社区的狂热奉献。

Concerns about Pump.fun

对 Pump.fun 的担忧

The rise of Solana-based memecoin deployer Pump.fun has raised concerns about its impact on the industry. Critics argue that the protocol promotes excessive token creation and dilutes attention from established memecoins.

基于 Solana 的 memecoin 部署者 Pump.fun 的崛起引起了人们对其对该行业影响的担忧。批评者认为，该协议促进了过度的代币创建，并削弱了现有模因币的注意力。

Mahmudov believes that the ability to launch memecoins with ease is an inevitable result of technological progress. He views Pump.fun as a "natural evolution" and suggests that it splits the market into gambling and long-term community building.

马哈茂多夫认为，能够轻松推出模因币是技术进步的必然结果。他将 Pump.fun 视为一种“自然演变”，并建议它将市场分为赌博和长期社区建设。

Mahmudov advises investors to analyze the two market segments separately, taking into account the distinct characteristics of each.

马哈茂多夫建议投资者分别分析这两个细分市场，考虑到每个细分市场的独特特征。