是時候出售狗狗嗎？加密資深人士警告70％的門票價格崩潰

Dogecoin's recent price drop, exceeding 17% to around $0.21, has sparked concern among investors. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted several troubling indicators in his recent chart analysis.

Dogecoin最近的價格下跌，超過17％，至0.21美元左右，這引起了投資者的關注。加密分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）在他最近的圖表分析中強調了一些令人不安的指標。

Technical Analysis Suggests Potential Downside

技術分析表明潛在的缺點

Martinez's analysis reveals Dogecoin's long-term price movement within an ascending channel since approximately 2015. This channel, characterized by periodic rallies and corrections, held until Dogecoin's parabolic surge in 2021, exceeding $0.70 before a significant retracement. Following the 2021 peak, Dogecoin fell back into the channel, entering a prolonged sideways accumulation phase between $0.05 and $0.10. A recent breakout towards $0.50 faced strong resistance, resulting in a current pullback.

馬丁內斯（Martinez）的分析顯示，自2015年以來，多黴素（Dogecoin）在上升渠道內的長期價格移動。該渠道以定期集會和矯正為特徵，直到2021年Dogecoin的拋物線寄生蟲激增一直超過0.70美元，在重大回撤之前。在2021年的峰值之後，Dogecoin落入了頻道，進入了0.05美元至0.10美元之間的長時間側向積累階段。最近的0.50美元的突破面臨著強烈的阻力，導致當前的回調。

Fibonacci retracement levels are particularly concerning. Dogecoin's breach of the 0.786 level (approximately $0.1978), previously acting as both resistance and support, indicates increased downside risk. Further decline could target the 0.618 level (around $0.0958), a historically significant retracement level. A worst-case scenario might see a retracement to the 0.5 level (approximately $0.0316), aligning with major accumulation periods preceding the 2021 rally. While less likely in the short term, a complete retracement could potentially reach the 0.236 level (about $0.0059).

斐波那契回溯水平特別關注。 Dogecoin違反0.786水平（約合0.1978美元），以前既是電阻和支持，又表明下行風險增加。進一步的下降可能針對0.618水平（約合0.0958美元），這是歷史上重要的回答水平。最糟糕的情況可能會導致到0.5級（約$ 0.0316）的回溯，與2021集會之前的主要累積週期保持一致。雖然短期內的可能性較小，但完整的回答可能會達到0.236水平（約合0.0059美元）。

The ascending channel suggests a long-term uptrend, despite price fluctuations within its boundaries. The horizontal support zone around $0.13 is crucial, aligning with previous higher lows and structural support. Conversely, potential resistance areas, should an uptrend resume, are indicated at $0.50, $1.00, $4.10, $10.04, and $36.32 based on Fibonacci extensions.

儘管價格在其邊界內發生了波動，但上升渠道表明，儘管價格波動波動，但仍表明了長期上升趨勢。水平支撐區約為0.13美元，至關重要，與以前的較高低點和結構支撐保持一致。相反，基於斐波那契擴展，如果上升趨勢簡歷為0.50美元，1.00美元，4.10美元，$ 10.04和$ 36.32的潛在阻力區域。

Martinez cautions that a drop below $0.19 significantly increases the probability of a deeper correction towards $0.06. This aligns with the technical analysis, as $0.19 corresponds to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Breaking this level opens the door for lower retracement targets, with the next key support between $0.07 and $0.06, coinciding with historical accumulation phases.

馬丁內斯（Martinez）警告說，下降到0.19美元以下，大大提高了更深入校正的可能性，更深入地提高了0.06美元。這與技術分析保持一致，因為$ 0.19對應於0.786斐波那契水平。打破此級別為較低的回撤目標打開了大門，下一個關鍵支撐在0.07美元至0.06美元之間，與歷史累積階段相吻合。

Declining Dogecoin Network Activity Raises Further Concerns

下降的Dogecoin網絡活動引起了進一步的關注

Martinez's on-chain analysis reveals a worrying trend. On November 21, 2024, Dogecoin had 1,292,770 new addresses and traded at $0.3868, reflecting high network activity at a relatively strong price point (approximately 2.66 million total active addresses).

馬丁內斯的鍊鍊分析揭示了令人擔憂的趨勢。 2024年11月21日，Dogecoin擁有1,292,770個新地址，並以0.3868美元的價格交易，反映了以相對較高的價格點（約266萬個積極的主動地址）的高網絡活動。

From December 2024 to February 2025, active addresses steadily decreased. By February 23, 2025, new addresses plummeted to 30,815, and total active addresses fell to 130,282—a 95% decline from November. While the price also declined, it didn't mirror the dramatic drop in active addresses. The significant reduction in active addresses suggests decreased user engagement and transaction volume, often interpreted as a bearish signal.

從2024年12月到2025年2月，主動地址穩步下降。到2025年2月23日，新的地址暴跌至30,815，總的活動地址降至130,282，從11月起下降了95％。雖然價格也下降了，但它並沒有反映出主動地址的急劇下降。主動地址的顯著減少表明用戶參與度和交易量減少，通常被解釋為看跌信號。