是时候出售狗狗吗？加密资深人士警告70％的门票价格崩溃

Dogecoin's recent price drop, exceeding 17% to around $0.21, has sparked concern among investors. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted several troubling indicators in his recent chart analysis.

Dogecoin最近的价格下跌，超过17％，至0.21美元左右，这引起了投资者的关注。加密分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）在他最近的图表分析中强调了一些令人不安的指标。

Technical Analysis Suggests Potential Downside

技术分析表明潜在的缺点

Martinez's analysis reveals Dogecoin's long-term price movement within an ascending channel since approximately 2015. This channel, characterized by periodic rallies and corrections, held until Dogecoin's parabolic surge in 2021, exceeding $0.70 before a significant retracement. Following the 2021 peak, Dogecoin fell back into the channel, entering a prolonged sideways accumulation phase between $0.05 and $0.10. A recent breakout towards $0.50 faced strong resistance, resulting in a current pullback.

马丁内斯（Martinez）的分析显示，自2015年以来，多霉素（Dogecoin）在上升渠道内的长期价格移动。该渠道以定期集会和矫正为特征，直到2021年Dogecoin的抛物线寄生虫激增一直超过0.70美元，在重大回撤之前。在2021年的峰值之后，Dogecoin落入了频道，进入了0.05美元至0.10美元之间的长时间侧向积累阶段。最近的0.50美元的突破面临着强烈的阻力，导致当前的回调。

Fibonacci retracement levels are particularly concerning. Dogecoin's breach of the 0.786 level (approximately $0.1978), previously acting as both resistance and support, indicates increased downside risk. Further decline could target the 0.618 level (around $0.0958), a historically significant retracement level. A worst-case scenario might see a retracement to the 0.5 level (approximately $0.0316), aligning with major accumulation periods preceding the 2021 rally. While less likely in the short term, a complete retracement could potentially reach the 0.236 level (about $0.0059).

斐波那契回溯水平特别关注。 Dogecoin违反0.786水平（约合0.1978美元），以前既是电阻和支持，又表明下行风险增加。进一步的下降可能针对0.618水平（约合0.0958美元），这是历史上重要的回答水平。最糟糕的情况可能会导致到0.5级（约$ 0.0316）的回溯，与2021集会之前的主要累积周期保持一致。虽然短期内的可能性较小，但完整的回答可能会达到0.236水平（约合0.0059美元）。

The ascending channel suggests a long-term uptrend, despite price fluctuations within its boundaries. The horizontal support zone around $0.13 is crucial, aligning with previous higher lows and structural support. Conversely, potential resistance areas, should an uptrend resume, are indicated at $0.50, $1.00, $4.10, $10.04, and $36.32 based on Fibonacci extensions.

尽管价格在其边界内发生了波动，但上升渠道表明，尽管价格波动波动，但仍表明了长期上升趋势。水平支撑区约为0.13美元，至关重要，与以前的较高低点和结构支撑保持一致。相反，基于斐波那契扩展，如果上升趋势简历为0.50美元，1.00美元，4.10美元，$ 10.04和$ 36.32的潜在阻力区域。

Martinez cautions that a drop below $0.19 significantly increases the probability of a deeper correction towards $0.06. This aligns with the technical analysis, as $0.19 corresponds to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Breaking this level opens the door for lower retracement targets, with the next key support between $0.07 and $0.06, coinciding with historical accumulation phases.

马丁内斯（Martinez）警告说，下降到0.19美元以下，大大提高了更深入校正的可能性，更深入地提高了0.06美元。这与技术分析保持一致，因为$ 0.19对应于0.786斐波那契水平。打破此级别为较低的回撤目标打开了大门，下一个关键支撑在0.07美元至0.06美元之间，与历史累积阶段相吻合。

Declining Dogecoin Network Activity Raises Further Concerns

下降的Dogecoin网络活动引起了进一步的关注

Martinez's on-chain analysis reveals a worrying trend. On November 21, 2024, Dogecoin had 1,292,770 new addresses and traded at $0.3868, reflecting high network activity at a relatively strong price point (approximately 2.66 million total active addresses).

马丁内斯的链链分析揭示了令人担忧的趋势。 2024年11月21日，Dogecoin拥有1,292,770个新地址，并以0.3868美元的价格交易，反映了以相对较高的价格点（约266万个积极的主动地址）的高网络活动。

From December 2024 to February 2025, active addresses steadily decreased. By February 23, 2025, new addresses plummeted to 30,815, and total active addresses fell to 130,282—a 95% decline from November. While the price also declined, it didn't mirror the dramatic drop in active addresses. The significant reduction in active addresses suggests decreased user engagement and transaction volume, often interpreted as a bearish signal.

从2024年12月到2025年2月，主动地址稳步下降。到2025年2月23日，新的地址暴跌至30,815，总的活动地址降至130,282，从11月起下降了95％。虽然价格也下降了，但它并没有反映出主动地址的急剧下降。主动地址的显着减少表明用户参与度和交易量减少，通常被解释为看跌信号。