The recent crypto market pullback has shaken investors, with Bitcoin and altcoins experiencing significant declines. While volatility persists, fundamental indicators suggest a potential market turnaround.

最近的加密货币市场撤退使投资者动摇了，比特币和山寨币的下降大幅下降。 尽管波动性持续存在，但基本指标表明潜在的市场周转。

Bitcoin is currently in a seven-week slump after reaching an all-time high of approximately $109,000 on January 19th of this year. This decline followed months of aggressive accumulation by large investors after Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024, which boosted investor confidence and network growth.

比特币在今年1月19日达到了历史最高的109,000美元，目前处于7周的低迷状态。在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在2024年11月赢得大选之后，大型投资者积极积累了几个月的下降，这增强了投资者的信心和网络增长。

Renewed Whale Accumulation

更新的鲸鱼积累

Santiment's data reveals a surge in wallet creation, with 2.51 million new Bitcoin addresses appearing in the week following the election, indicating increased retail and institutional interest. However, accumulation slowed after Trump's inauguration, leading to profit-taking on February 19th and a subsequent price decline to $77,000 this week.

Santiment的数据显示，钱包的创造激增，大选后的一周出现了251万个新的比特币地址，表明零售和机构利益的增加。 然而，特朗普就职典礼后的积累放缓，导致2月19日的利润率，随后的价格下跌至本周77,000美元。

Adding to the bearish pressure, 22,702 BTC moved from non-exchange wallets to exchanges between February 20th and March 8th – a trend Santiment identifies as often preceding sell-offs and increased volatility.

除看跌压力外，22,702 BTC从非交换钱包转移到2月20日至3月8日之间的交流 - 这种趋势令人震惊的是，在抛售和增加的波动率通常都可以确定。

Despite this, a key counter-signal emerged: high-capital Bitcoin wallets resumed accumulation on March 3rd, even as the market continued its decline. Historically, such accumulation amidst pessimism often signals an impending market bottom.

尽管如此，仍出现了一个关键的反信号：3月3日，高资本比特币钱包恢复了积累，即使市场继续下降。从历史上看，在悲观主义中，这种积累通常标志着即将到来的市场底层。

Market Sentiment, Altcoin Performance, and the Future

市场情绪，山寨币表现以及未来

Social sentiment analysis supports this outlook. Santiment's observation of Bitcoin price predictions on social media reveals a growing imbalance between bullish and bearish forecasts. Mentions of sub-$69,000 price targets significantly outweigh six-figure predictions, suggesting extreme fear among retail traders. Markets often move against the prevailing consensus, implying a potential Bitcoin reversal as panic selling peaks.

社会情感分析支持这种前景。 Santiment对社交媒体上比特币价格预测的观察表明，看涨和看跌预测之间的不平衡日益增长。 提及低于69,000美元的价格目标的提及大大超过了六位数的预测，这表明零售商人极度担心。 市场经常反对普遍的共识，这意味着潜在的比特币逆转是恐慌销售的峰值。

Furthermore, Bitcoin traders active in the past 30 days are down an average of 11%, while those active for the past year are down 5%. While not historically extreme, these losses indicate diminishing risk compared to typical market conditions.

此外，过去30天活跃的比特币交易者平均下降了11％，而过去一年活跃的比特币交易者下降了5％。尽管在历史上并不是极端，但这些损失表明与典型的市场状况相比，风险减少。

Altcoins have experienced even steeper declines, with Ethereum and Solana down 29% and 40% respectively, and meme coins like Dogecoin and Pepe experiencing 38-39% drawdowns. However, the cyclical nature of crypto suggests strong recoveries often follow such corrections.

AltCoins的下降甚至更高，以太坊和Solana分别下跌了29％和40％，而Meme硬币和Pepe等模因硬币经历了38-39％的下降。但是，加密的周期性性质表明，强大的回收率经常遵循这种校正。

While macroeconomic headwinds, including concerns about Trump's tariffs and a potential trade war, may cause continued turbulence, Santiment notes that accumulation, extreme trader pain, and widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are aligning for a potential market rebound. However, the platform cautions that the short-term path may remain volatile.

尽管宏观经济的逆风，包括对特朗普的关税和潜在贸易战的担忧，可能会导致动荡持续动荡，但santiment指出，积累，极端的交易者痛苦和广泛的恐惧，不确定性和怀疑（FUD）在潜在的市场折扣方面保持一致。 但是，该平台警告短期路径可能保持波动。

“In short, the crypto sky isn't falling. We may see more turbulence due to macroeconomic concerns, such as equity and crypto traders' anxieties related to Trump's tariffs and a potential growing trade war. But with key stakeholders accumulating again, traders already experiencing significant losses, and increasing FUD on social media, positive signs are emerging.”

简而言之，加密天空并没有落下。由于宏观经济问题，我们可能会看到更大的动荡，例如公平性和加密货币商人与特朗普的关税和潜在增长的贸易战有关的焦虑。但是，随着主要利益相关者再次积累，交易者已经遭受了巨大的损失，并且在社交媒体上的越来越多，积极的迹象正在出现。”

The post 22,702 BTC Flow to Exchanges: What History Tells Us About the Current Bitcoin Downtrend appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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