The recent crypto market pullback has shaken investors, with Bitcoin and altcoins experiencing significant declines. While volatility persists, fundamental indicators suggest a potential market turnaround.

最近的加密貨幣市場撤退使投資者動搖了，比特幣和山寨幣的下降大幅下降。 儘管波動性持續存在，但基本指標表明潛在的市場周轉。

Bitcoin is currently in a seven-week slump after reaching an all-time high of approximately $109,000 on January 19th of this year. This decline followed months of aggressive accumulation by large investors after Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024, which boosted investor confidence and network growth.

比特幣在今年1月19日達到了歷史最高的109,000美元，目前處於7週的低迷狀態。在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在2024年11月贏得大選之後，大型投資者積極積累了幾個月的下降，這增強了投資者的信心和網絡增長。

Renewed Whale Accumulation

更新的鯨魚積累

Santiment's data reveals a surge in wallet creation, with 2.51 million new Bitcoin addresses appearing in the week following the election, indicating increased retail and institutional interest. However, accumulation slowed after Trump's inauguration, leading to profit-taking on February 19th and a subsequent price decline to $77,000 this week.

Santiment的數據顯示，錢包的創造激增，大選後的一周出現了251萬個新的比特幣地址，表明零售和機構利益的增加。 然而，特朗普就職典禮後的積累放緩，導致2月19日的利潤率，隨後的價格下跌至本週77,000美元。

Adding to the bearish pressure, 22,702 BTC moved from non-exchange wallets to exchanges between February 20th and March 8th – a trend Santiment identifies as often preceding sell-offs and increased volatility.

除看跌壓力外，22,702 BTC從非交換錢包轉移到2月20日至3月8日之間的交流 - 這種趨勢令人震驚的是，在拋售和增加的波動率通常都可以確定。

Despite this, a key counter-signal emerged: high-capital Bitcoin wallets resumed accumulation on March 3rd, even as the market continued its decline. Historically, such accumulation amidst pessimism often signals an impending market bottom.

儘管如此，仍出現了一個關鍵的反信號：3月3日，高資本比特幣錢包恢復了積累，即使市場繼續下降。從歷史上看，在悲觀主義中，這種積累通常標誌著即將到來的市場底層。

Market Sentiment, Altcoin Performance, and the Future

市場情緒，山寨幣表現以及未來

Social sentiment analysis supports this outlook. Santiment's observation of Bitcoin price predictions on social media reveals a growing imbalance between bullish and bearish forecasts. Mentions of sub-$69,000 price targets significantly outweigh six-figure predictions, suggesting extreme fear among retail traders. Markets often move against the prevailing consensus, implying a potential Bitcoin reversal as panic selling peaks.

社會情感分析支持這種前景。 Santiment對社交媒體上比特幣價格預測的觀察表明，看漲和看跌預測之間的不平衡日益增長。 提及低於69,000美元的價格目標的提及大大超過了六位數的預測，這表明零售商人極度擔心。 市場經常反對普遍的共識，這意味著潛在的比特幣逆轉是恐慌銷售的峰值。

Furthermore, Bitcoin traders active in the past 30 days are down an average of 11%, while those active for the past year are down 5%. While not historically extreme, these losses indicate diminishing risk compared to typical market conditions.

此外，過去30天活躍的比特幣交易者平均下降了11％，而過去一年活躍的比特幣交易者下降了5％。儘管在歷史上並不是極端，但這些損失表明與典型的市場狀況相比，風險減少。

Altcoins have experienced even steeper declines, with Ethereum and Solana down 29% and 40% respectively, and meme coins like Dogecoin and Pepe experiencing 38-39% drawdowns. However, the cyclical nature of crypto suggests strong recoveries often follow such corrections.

AltCoins的下降甚至更高，以太坊和Solana分別下跌了29％和40％，而Meme硬幣和Pepe等模因硬幣經歷了38-39％的下降。但是，加密的周期性性質表明，強大的回收率經常遵循這種校正。

While macroeconomic headwinds, including concerns about Trump's tariffs and a potential trade war, may cause continued turbulence, Santiment notes that accumulation, extreme trader pain, and widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are aligning for a potential market rebound. However, the platform cautions that the short-term path may remain volatile.

儘管宏觀經濟的逆風，包括對特朗普的關稅和潛在貿易戰的擔憂，可能會導致動盪持續動盪，但santiment指出，積累，極端的交易者痛苦和廣泛的恐懼，不確定性和懷疑（FUD）在潛在的市場折扣方面保持一致。 但是，該平台警告短期路徑可能保持波動。

“In short, the crypto sky isn't falling. We may see more turbulence due to macroeconomic concerns, such as equity and crypto traders' anxieties related to Trump's tariffs and a potential growing trade war. But with key stakeholders accumulating again, traders already experiencing significant losses, and increasing FUD on social media, positive signs are emerging.”

簡而言之，加密天空並沒有落下。由於宏觀經濟問題，我們可能會看到更大的動盪，例如公平性和加密貨幣商人與特朗普的關稅和潛在增長的貿易戰有關的焦慮。但是，隨著主要利益相關者再次積累，交易者已經遭受了巨大的損失，並且在社交媒體上的越來越多，積極的跡象正在出現。”

The post 22,702 BTC Flow to Exchanges: What History Tells Us About the Current Bitcoin Downtrend appeared first on CryptoPotato.

帖子22,702 BTC流向交流：歷史告訴我們有關當前比特幣下降趨勢的信息首先出現在Cryptopotato上。