Will Bitcoin's Price Rise or Fall After the US Elections?

美国大选后比特币价格会上涨还是下跌？

A renowned crypto analyst from Altcoin Daily has analyzed the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on Bitcoin's price.

《山寨币日报》的一位著名加密货币分析师分析了即将到来的美国总统大选对比特币价格的潜在影响。

Historical Market Performance

历史市场表现

Historically, market performance has shown a weak correlation with the winning party. The long-term S&P 500 chart reveals a general upward trend irrespective of the election outcome.

从历史上看，市场表现与获胜方的相关性较弱。无论选举结果如何，标准普尔 500 指数长期图表都显示出总体上涨趋势。

Current Market Sentiment

当前市场情绪

Betting markets indicate a growing likelihood of a Trump victory. Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya believes the economy favors Trump, based on market positioning.

博彩市场表明特朗普获胜的可能性越来越大。亿万富翁投资者查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚 (Chamath Palihapitiya) 认为，基于市场定位，经济对特朗普有利。

Potential Short-Term Impacts

潜在的短期影响

A Trump victory could initially boost stocks while raising inflation concerns, leading to investments in gold and Bitcoin as hedges. Conversely, a Harris victory might trigger a temporary dip, offering a buying opportunity. Betting odds suggest that a $100 investment on Trump could yield $162, while a similar investment on Harris could yield $240.

特朗普的胜利最初可能会提振股市，同时引发通胀担忧，导致人们投资黄金和比特币作为对冲工具。相反，哈里斯的胜利可能会引发暂时的下跌，从而提供买入机会。投注赔率显示，对特朗普进行 100 美元的投资可能会产生 162 美元的收益，而对哈里斯进行类似的投资可能会产生 240 美元的收益。

Standard Chartered's Forecast

渣打银行的预测

Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach record highs by year-end, estimating a price of $125,000 for a Trump win and $75,000 for a Harris win, due to her historical crypto skepticism compared to Trump's more favorable stance.

渣打银行预测，比特币到年底将创下历史新高，预计特朗普获胜的比特币价格为 125,000 美元，哈里斯获胜的价格为 75,000 美元，因为与特朗普更有利的立场相比，她对加密货币持怀疑态度。

Congressional Composition

国会组成

The composition of Congress also influences post-election market conditions. Historically, markets have performed best under a Democratic president with a Republican Congress or a divided Congress.

国会的组成也会影响选举后的市场状况。从历史上看，在民主党总统执政、共和党国会或分裂的国会领导下，市场表现最佳。