Will Bitcoin's Price Rise or Fall After the US Elections?

美國大選後比特幣價格會上漲還是下跌？

A renowned crypto analyst from Altcoin Daily has analyzed the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on Bitcoin's price.

《山寨幣日報》的一位著名加密貨幣分析師分析了即將到來的美國總統大選對比特幣價格的潛在影響。

Historical Market Performance

歷史市場表現

Historically, market performance has shown a weak correlation with the winning party. The long-term S&P 500 chart reveals a general upward trend irrespective of the election outcome.

從歷史上看，市場表現與獲勝方的相關性較弱。無論選舉結果如何，標準普爾 500 指數長期圖表都顯示出整體上漲趨勢。

Current Market Sentiment

當前市場情緒

Betting markets indicate a growing likelihood of a Trump victory. Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya believes the economy favors Trump, based on market positioning.

博彩市場顯示川普獲勝的可能性越來越大。億萬富翁投資者查馬斯·帕里哈皮蒂亞 (Chamath Palihapitiya) 認為，基於市場定位，經濟對川普有利。

Potential Short-Term Impacts

潛在的短期影響

A Trump victory could initially boost stocks while raising inflation concerns, leading to investments in gold and Bitcoin as hedges. Conversely, a Harris victory might trigger a temporary dip, offering a buying opportunity. Betting odds suggest that a $100 investment on Trump could yield $162, while a similar investment on Harris could yield $240.

川普的勝利最初可能會提振股市，同時引發通膨擔憂，導致人們投資黃金和比特幣作為對沖工具。相反，哈里斯的勝利可能會引發暫時的下跌，從而提供買入機會。投注賠率顯示，對川普進行 100 美元的投資可能會產生 162 美元的收益，而對哈里斯進行類似的投資可能會產生 240 美元的收益。

Standard Chartered's Forecast

渣打銀行的預測

Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach record highs by year-end, estimating a price of $125,000 for a Trump win and $75,000 for a Harris win, due to her historical crypto skepticism compared to Trump's more favorable stance.

渣打銀行預測，比特幣到年底將創下歷史新高，預計川普獲勝的比特幣價格為125,000 美元，哈里斯獲勝的價格為75,000 美元，因為與川普更有利的立場相比，她對加密貨幣持懷疑態度。

Congressional Composition

國會組成

The composition of Congress also influences post-election market conditions. Historically, markets have performed best under a Democratic president with a Republican Congress or a divided Congress.

國會的組成也會影響選舉後的市場狀況。從歷史上看，在民主黨總統執政、共和黨國會或分裂的國會領導下，市場表現最佳。