Bitcoin Declines amid U.S. Political Uncertainty and Mt. Gox Concerns

比特币因美国政治不确定性和 Mt. Gox 担忧而下跌

Bitcoin's price has dropped to $57,837.7 on Bitget at 2 PM CET on July 4th. According to CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency has fallen by 4% within 24 hours and 22.1% within four months since reaching its all-time high of $73,737.94 on March 14, 2024.

欧洲中部时间 7 月 4 日下午 2 点，比特币在 Bitget 上的价格已跌至 57,837.7 美元。据 CoinGecko 称，自 2024 年 3 月 14 日触及历史高点 73,737.94 美元以来，该加密货币在 24 小时内下跌了 4%，在四个月内下跌了 22.1%。

Political Uncertainty and Mt. Gox Fears

政治不确定性和 Mt. Gox 恐惧

Bloomberg attributes the decline to political uncertainty in the U.S. and concerns about cryptocurrency sell-offs by Mt. Gox clients. Investors speculate whether President Joe Biden will withdraw from the election, as urged by his Democratic Party colleagues. Polymarket predicts a 55% chance that Biden will step down before the August 19th convention. Standard Chartered suggests that Bitcoin's price may depend on Biden's decision to remain in the race.

彭博社将这一下滑归因于美国政治不确定性以及对 Mt. Gox 客户抛售加密货币的担忧。投资者猜测总统乔·拜登是否会按照民主党同僚的敦促退出选举。 Polymarket 预测拜登在 8 月 19 日全国代表大会之前下台的可能性为 55%。渣打银行表示，比特币的价格可能取决于拜登是否决定继续参加竞选。

Mt. Gox Compensation Plans

Mt. Gox 补偿计划

On June 24th, Mt. Gox's administrators announced plans to initiate compensation payouts. By the end of 2024, they aim to distribute 142,000 bitcoins (approximately $9 billion), 143,000 Bitcoin Cash coins ($53 million), and ¥69 billion.

6 月 24 日，Mt. Gox 的管理人员宣布了启动赔偿支付的计划。到 2024 年底，他们的目标是分发 142,000 个比特币（约 90 亿美元）、143,000 个比特币现金（5,300 万美元）和 690 亿日元。

Market participants express concerns about the potential selling pressure on Bitcoin's price due to the compensation distribution.

市场参与者对补偿分配可能对比特币价格造成潜在抛售压力表示担忧。

JPMorgan's Bitcoin Forecast

摩根大通的比特币预测

JPMorgan analysts predict that most Mt. Gox payouts will occur in July, leading to further Bitcoin price declines. They expect a price recovery in August.

摩根大通分析师预测，大多数 Mt. Gox 支付将发生在 7 月份，这将导致比特币价格进一步下跌。他们预计八月份价格会回升。

ALTA's Bitcoin Market Growth Prediction

ALTA 的比特币市场增长预测

Analysts from ALTA – Blockchain Lab anticipate liquidity accumulation in the Bitcoin market this summer due to anticipation of autumn events, such as the U.S. elections and potential ETF approvals.

ALTA – 区块链实验室的分析师预计，由于对秋季事件的预期，例如美国大选和潜在的 ETF 批准，今年夏天比特币市场的流动性将会积累。

Major price shifts may not occur over the summer, but corrections could provide opportunities for market positioning. Macroeconomic conditions and new Bitcoin Layer-2 Scaling Projects could positively influence Bitcoin's price in the fall.

夏季可能不会发生重大价格变化，但调整可能会为市场定位提供机会。宏观经济状况和新的比特币第二层扩容项目可能会对秋季比特币的价格产生积极影响。

Other Cryptocurrencies

其他加密货币

Ethereum's price decreased to $3,167, losing 4.3% in 24 hours. Other major cryptocurrencies, including XRP, BNB, Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Toncoin (TON), followed Bitcoin's decline, dropping 4.5% to 6%. Solana (SOL) experienced the steepest decline, falling 6.5% to $134.41.

以太坊价格跌至 3,167 美元，24 小时内下跌 4.3%。其他主要加密货币，包括 XRP、BNB、Cardano (ADA)、Dogecoin (DOGE) 和 Toncoin (TON) 也跟随比特币下跌，下跌 4.5% 至 6%。 Solana (SOL) 跌幅最大，下跌 6.5% 至 134.41 美元。

Trader Liquidations

交易者清算

Coinglass reported approximately 102,000 liquidated positions on crypto exchanges in 24 hours, amounting to a total of $260 million in liquidations, including $68 million in Bitcoin and $65 million in Ethereum. This indicates that leveraged traders lacked sufficient funds to cover their positions.

Coinglass 报告称，加密货币交易所在 24 小时内清算了约 102,000 个头寸，清算总额达 2.6 亿美元，其中包括 6800 万美元的比特币和 6500 万美元的以太坊。这表明杠杆交易者缺乏足够的资金来补仓。