Bitcoin Declines amid U.S. Political Uncertainty and Mt. Gox Concerns

比特幣因美國政治不確定性和 Mt. Gox 擔憂而下跌

Bitcoin's price has dropped to $57,837.7 on Bitget at 2 PM CET on July 4th. According to CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency has fallen by 4% within 24 hours and 22.1% within four months since reaching its all-time high of $73,737.94 on March 14, 2024.

歐洲中部時間 7 月 4 日下午 2 點，比特幣在 Bitget 上的價格已跌至 57,837.7 美元。據 CoinGecko 稱，自 2024 年 3 月 14 日觸及歷史高點 73,737.94 美元以來，該加密貨幣在 24 小時內下跌了 4%，在四個月內下跌了 22.1%。

Political Uncertainty and Mt. Gox Fears

政治不確定性與 Mt. Gox 恐懼

Bloomberg attributes the decline to political uncertainty in the U.S. and concerns about cryptocurrency sell-offs by Mt. Gox clients. Investors speculate whether President Joe Biden will withdraw from the election, as urged by his Democratic Party colleagues. Polymarket predicts a 55% chance that Biden will step down before the August 19th convention. Standard Chartered suggests that Bitcoin's price may depend on Biden's decision to remain in the race.

彭博社將這一下滑歸因於美國政治不確定性以及對 Mt. Gox 客戶拋售加密貨幣的擔憂。投資人猜測總統拜登是否會按照民主黨同僚的敦促退出選舉。 Polymarket 預測拜登在 8 月 19 日全國代表大會之前下台的可能性為 55%。渣打銀行表示，比特幣的價格可能取決於拜登是否決定繼續參選。

Mt. Gox Compensation Plans

Mt. Gox 補償計劃

On June 24th, Mt. Gox's administrators announced plans to initiate compensation payouts. By the end of 2024, they aim to distribute 142,000 bitcoins (approximately $9 billion), 143,000 Bitcoin Cash coins ($53 million), and ¥69 billion.

6 月 24 日，Mt. Gox 的管理人員宣布了啟動賠償支付的計畫。到 2024 年底，他們的目標是分發 142,000 個比特幣（約 90 億美元）、143,000 個比特幣現金（5,300 萬美元）和 690 億日元。

Market participants express concerns about the potential selling pressure on Bitcoin's price due to the compensation distribution.

市場參與者對補償分配可能對比特幣價格造成潛在拋售壓力表示擔憂。

JPMorgan's Bitcoin Forecast

摩根大通的比特幣預測

JPMorgan analysts predict that most Mt. Gox payouts will occur in July, leading to further Bitcoin price declines. They expect a price recovery in August.

摩根大通分析師預測，大多數 Mt. Gox 支付將發生在 7 月份，這將導致比特幣價格進一步下跌。他們預計八月價格會回升。

ALTA's Bitcoin Market Growth Prediction

ALTA 的比特幣市場成長預測

Analysts from ALTA – Blockchain Lab anticipate liquidity accumulation in the Bitcoin market this summer due to anticipation of autumn events, such as the U.S. elections and potential ETF approvals.

ALTA – 區塊鏈實驗室的分析師預計，由於對秋季事件的預期，例如美國大選和潛在的 ETF 批准，今年夏天比特幣市場的流動性將會累積。

Major price shifts may not occur over the summer, but corrections could provide opportunities for market positioning. Macroeconomic conditions and new Bitcoin Layer-2 Scaling Projects could positively influence Bitcoin's price in the fall.

夏季可能不會發生重大價格變化，但調整可能會為市場定位提供機會。宏觀經濟狀況和新的比特幣第二層擴容項目可能會對秋季比特幣的價格產生正面影響。

Other Cryptocurrencies

其他加密貨幣

Ethereum's price decreased to $3,167, losing 4.3% in 24 hours. Other major cryptocurrencies, including XRP, BNB, Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Toncoin (TON), followed Bitcoin's decline, dropping 4.5% to 6%. Solana (SOL) experienced the steepest decline, falling 6.5% to $134.41.

以太坊價格跌至 3,167 美元，24 小時內下跌 4.3%。其他主要加密貨幣，包括 XRP、BNB、Cardano (ADA)、Dogecoin (DOGE) 和 Toncoin (TON) 也跟隨比特幣下跌，下跌 4.5% 至 6%。 Solana (SOL) 跌幅最大，下跌 6.5% 至 134.41 美元。

Trader Liquidations

交易者清算

Coinglass reported approximately 102,000 liquidated positions on crypto exchanges in 24 hours, amounting to a total of $260 million in liquidations, including $68 million in Bitcoin and $65 million in Ethereum. This indicates that leveraged traders lacked sufficient funds to cover their positions.

Coinglass 報告稱，加密貨幣交易所在 24 小時內清算了約 102,000 個頭寸，清算總額達 2.6 億美元，其中包括 6,800 萬美元的比特幣和 6,500 萬美元的以太坊。這表明槓桿交易者缺乏足夠的資金來補倉。