At the turn of every year, crypto celebrities announce outrageous predictions for the upcoming twelve months. Bullish bitcoin prices are always the most common forecasts — but in 2023, influencers expanded into a variety of predictions ranging from the ‘flippening’ to Gary Gensler’s dismissal from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

每年年初，加密货币名人都会宣布对未来 12 个月的惊人预测。看涨比特币价格始终是最常见的预测，但在 2023 年，影响者的预测范围扩大到各种预测，从“反转”到加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 被美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 解雇。

An embarrassing number of these attempts at precognition never came true. Yet, the influencers who made them never held themselves accountable.

令人尴尬的是，这些预知的尝试从未实现。然而，创造它们的影响者却从未对自己负责。

Below, we take a look at some of 2023’s crypto predictions that entirely missed the mark.

下面，我们来看看一些完全不符合预期的 2023 年加密货币预测。

Failed prediction #1: Bitcoin didn’t hit $175,000

失败的预测#1：比特币没有达到 175,000 美元

Bitcoin’s impressive price rise over the past few months indicates that investors are confident things will improve. BTC has soared from $27,000 to $43,000 in the past three months — a 60% pump. On January 2 and 3, 2024, the price of bitcoin surpassed $45,000 for the first time in two years.

过去几个月比特币价格的惊人上涨表明投资者对情况会有所改善充满信心。过去三个月，BTC 价格从 27,000 美元飙升至 43,000 美元，涨幅达 60%。 2024年1月2日至3日，比特币价格两年来首次突破45,000美元。

However, during the entirety of 2023, bitcoin never exceeded $44,800 — 35% below its all-time high of $69,000.

然而，在 2023 年全年，比特币从未超过 44,800 美元，比历史高点 69,000 美元低了 35%。

Bitcoin certainly never got close to $175,000 in 2023, as Defitology predicted in August 2022. It didn’t even regain its $69,000 high, as Race Capital predicted.

正如 Defitology 在 2022 年 8 月预测的那样，比特币在 2023 年肯定不会接近 175,000 美元。正如 Race Capital 预测的那样，它甚至没有重回 69,000 美元的高点。

Failed prediction #2: Bitcoin didn’t collapse, either

失败的预测#2：比特币也没有崩溃

Entrepreneur Nick Huber made a series of financial predictions, including that bitcoin would drop by 50% during 2023. Celebrity bears like il Capo similarly forecasted that bitcoin would crash to $12,000 last year.

企业家尼克·胡贝尔(Nick Huber)做出了一系列金融预测，其中包括比特币将在2023年下跌50%。像伊尔·卡波(il Capo)这样的名人空头同样预测比特币去年将跌至12,000美元。

Instead, bitcoin rallied all year.

相反，比特币全年都在上涨。

My First Million podcaster Shaan Puri even predicted bitcoin would get down to $11,000. Some even said that it would go below $1,000.

My First Million 播客 Shaan Puri 甚至预测比特币将跌至 11,000 美元。甚至有人表示会跌破1000美元。

Only, Bitcoin started 2023 at $16,530 and ended the year at $42,250 — a respectable rise.

只是，比特币 2023 年年初价格为 16,530 美元，年底价格为 42,250 美元，涨幅可观。

Failed prediction #3: More countries didn’t adopt bitcoin

失败的预测#3：更多国家没有采用比特币

Since El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender years ago, many crypto celebrities predicted that 2023 would finally be the year for more countries to follow suit. It wasn’t.

自从萨尔瓦多多年前采用比特币作为法定货币以来，许多加密货币名人预测 2023 年最终将成为更多国家效仿的一年。事实并非如此。

Of course, the Central African Republic briefly announced a similar law in April 2022, but backpedaled soon after.

当然，中非共和国曾于 2022 年 4 月短暂宣布了类似的法律，但很快又撤回了。

Master Ventures Capital CIO Tom Dunleavy was among those who predicted that at least one G20 nation, such as Argentina, would buy bitcoin as reserves for its central bank. As 2023 wound down, he admitted that prediction was one of a few “complete whiffs.”

Master Ventures Capital 首席信息官汤姆·邓利维 (Tom Dunleavy) 是预测至少有一个 G20 国家（例如阿根廷）将购买比特币作为其央行储备的人之一。随着 2023 年的临近，他承认这一预测是少数“彻底的错误”之一。

Failed prediction #4: The flippening didn’t happen

失败的预测#4：翻转没有发生

The flippening refers to a hypothetical time in the future when the market capitalization of ether would exceed the market capitalization of bitcoin.

翻转是指假设在未来某个时间，以太币的市值将超过比特币的市值。

Some crypto influencers like Rea.eth hoped that the flippening would occur during 2023. It didn’t.

像 Rea.eth 这样的一些加密货币影响者希望这种转变能够在 2023 年发生。但事实并非如此。

To this day, Bitcoin remains more than three times larger than Ethereum.

直到今天，比特币仍然是以太坊的三倍多。

Failed prediction #5: Application-specific blockchains didn’t become mainstream

失败的预测#5：特定应用的区块链并未成为主流

In August 2022, tech influencer Alex Valaitus posted about Cosmos (ATOM) and its application-specific blockchains in a tweet thread, suggesting that they could be a better way to improve performance. 

2022 年 8 月，科技影响者 Alex Valaitus 在推文中发布了有关 Cosmos (ATOM) 及其特定应用区块链的信息，暗示它们可能是提高性能的更好方法。

However, on December 27, 2023, he admitted that application-specific blockchains didn’t become mainstream as quickly as he had hoped.

然而，2023 年 12 月 27 日，他承认特定应用区块链并没有像他希望的那样迅速成为主流。

Failed prediction #6: Web3 didn’t win

失败的预测#6：Web3 没有获胜

Crypto influencer Alex Zhang predicted that 2023 would see “more meaningful web3 social platforms and protocols.” Other influencers predicted that web3 apps would enjoy substantial progress and broadly decentralize.

加密货币影响者 Alex 张预测，2023 年将出现“更有意义的 web3 社交平台和协议”。其他有影响力的人士预测 web3 应用程序将取得实质性进展并广泛去中心化。

Twitter founder Jack Dorsey disagreed. Indeed, most web3 properties didn’t gain much ground in 2023 relative to other crypto sectors. Web3 games had a particularly bad year.

Twitter 创始人杰克·多尔西 (Jack Dorsey) 不同意这种观点。事实上，相对于其他加密行业，大多数 web3 资产在 2023 年并没有取得太大进展。 Web3 游戏今年的表现尤其糟糕。

Read more: Web3 is the future of the internet — and a16z’s exit liquidity

了解更多：Web3 是互联网的未来 — 以及 a16z 的退出流动性

Failed prediction #7: Gary Gensler still chairs the SEC

失败的预测#7：加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 仍担任 SEC 主席

Alex Valaitus also predicted that regulation would be a “nothing burger” in 2023. He claimed Gary Gensler would be removed from his role as chair of the SEC. To the contrary, the US government gained the largest-ever fine on a crypto exchange, extracting a whopping $4.3 billion settlement from Binance and forcing Changpeng Zhao (CZ) to step down as CEO.

Alex Valaitus 还预测，到 2023 年，监管将成为“无用汉堡”。他声称 Gary Gensler 将被免去 SEC 主席职务。相反，美国政府对加密货币交易所处以有史以来最大的罚款，从币安处获得了高达 43 亿美元的和解金，并迫使赵长鹏 (CZ) 辞去首席执行官职务。

The SEC also scored a partial victory in the Ripple case, gaining Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling that Ripple sold XRP as unregistered securities to certain institutional buyers.

美国证券交易委员会还在 Ripple 案中取得了部分胜利，法官 Analisa Torres 做出了 Ripple 将 XRP 作为未注册证券出售给某些机构买家的裁决。

However, the commission didn’t get everything it wanted. Torres also ruled that programmatic sales of XRP didn’t necessarily qualify as buyers knowingly entering an investment contract. 

然而，该委员会并没有得到它想要的一切。托雷斯还裁定，XRP 的程序化销售不一定符合买家故意签订投资合同的资格。

Crypto influencers who predicted the downfall of Gensler during 2023 also whiffed. Despite a judge scolding the SEC for making “false and misleading” statements in a small lawsuit regarding Debt Box, and another judge ruling that the SEC failed to coherently explain its position when it rejected Grayscale’s application to convert GBTC into a bitcoin spot ETF, Gensler is still the top commissioner of the SEC.

预测 Gensler 在 2023 年垮台的加密货币影响者也对此嗤之以鼻。尽管一名法官斥责 SEC 在有关 Debt Box 的小规模诉讼中做出“虚假和误导性”陈述，并且另一名法官裁定 SEC 在拒绝 Grayscale 将 GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 的申请时未能连贯地解释其立场，Gensler仍然是 SEC 的最高专员。

Failed prediction #8: Cosmos didn’t reach the top 10

失败的预测#8：Cosmos 未进入前 10 名

Tom Dunleavy predicted that Cosmos would join the ranks of the world’s top 10 largest digital assets. He wanted the Cosmos team to release 2.0, resolve problems with tokenomics, and encourage inflows into Cosmos’ Total Value Locked (TVL).

Tom Dunleavy 预测 Cosmos 将跻身全球十大数字资产行列。他希望 Cosmos 团队发布 2.0，解决代币经济问题，并鼓励资金流入 Cosmos 的总价值锁定（TVL）。

However, none of these dreams came true during 2023.

然而，这些梦想在 2023 年都没有实现。

Failed prediction #9: TradFi is still traditional finance

失败的预测 #9：TradFi 仍然是传统金融

Much to the dismay of crypto pundits, digital assets failed to supplant traditional finance (TradFi) last year.

令加密货币专家感到沮丧的是，数字资产去年未能取代传统金融（TradFi）。

At press time, less than $2 trillion of the world’s $454 trillion involves crypto.

截至发稿时，全球 454 万亿美元中只有不到 2 万亿美元涉及加密货币。

Failed prediction #10: GBTC hasn’t converted into an ETF

失败的预测#10：GBTC 尚未转换为 ETF

Corey Bates predicted the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF during 2023. It still could happen sometime soon. However, it didn’t happen in 2023.

Corey Bates 预测灰度比特币信托基金 (GBTC) 将在 2023 年转换为 ETF。这仍然可能很快发生。然而，这在 2023 年并没有发生。

Read more: Barry Silbert’s Grayscale wants GBTC to commingle bitcoin ‘from time to time’

阅读更多：Barry Silbert 的 Grayscale 希望 GBTC “时不时地”混合比特币

Failed prediction #11: Fast food restaurants didn’t accept bitcoin

失败的预测#11：快餐店不接受比特币

Cory Bates also predicted that fast food chains, specifically Wendy’s and Chipotle, would accept Bitcoin as a form of payment. He thought thousands of vendors would integrate the Lightning Network. However, that didn’t quite happen.

科里·贝茨还预测，快餐连锁店，特别是 Wendy's 和 Chipotle，将接受比特币作为支付方式。他认为数千家供应商将集成闪电网络。然而，这并没有完全发生。

Failed prediction #12: Twitter didn’t integrate Dogecoin

失败的预测#12：Twitter 没有整合狗狗币

Many Dogecoin holders thought that X (formerly Twitter) would unveil its Dogecoin integration during 2023. Elon Musk delayed that announcement.

许多狗狗币持有者认为 X（以前的 Twitter）将在 2023 年期间公布其狗狗币集成。埃隆·马斯克推迟了这一宣布。

X gained a handful of state-level payment processor licenses during 2023, but it didn’t roll out its native digital asset payment processing app as Cory Bates predicted.

X 在 2023 年获得了一些州级支付处理器许可证，但它并没有像 Cory Bates 预测的那样推出其原生数字资产支付处理应用程序。

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