At the turn of every year, crypto celebrities announce outrageous predictions for the upcoming twelve months. Bullish bitcoin prices are always the most common forecasts — but in 2023, influencers expanded into a variety of predictions ranging from the ‘flippening’ to Gary Gensler’s dismissal from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

每年年初，加密貨幣名人都會宣布未來 12 個月的驚人預測。看漲比特幣價格始終是最常見的預測，但在2023 年，影響者的預測範圍擴大到各種預測，從「反轉」到加里·根斯勒(Gary Gensler) 被美國證券交易委員會(SEC)解僱。

An embarrassing number of these attempts at precognition never came true. Yet, the influencers who made them never held themselves accountable.

令人尷尬的是，這些預知的嘗試從未實現。然而，創造它們的影響者從未對自己負責。

Below, we take a look at some of 2023’s crypto predictions that entirely missed the mark.

下面，我們來看看一些完全不符合預期的 2023 年加密貨幣預測。

Failed prediction #1: Bitcoin didn’t hit $175,000

失敗的預測#1：比特幣沒有達到 175,000 美元

Bitcoin’s impressive price rise over the past few months indicates that investors are confident things will improve. BTC has soared from $27,000 to $43,000 in the past three months — a 60% pump. On January 2 and 3, 2024, the price of bitcoin surpassed $45,000 for the first time in two years.

過去幾個月比特幣價格的驚人上漲表明投資者對情況會有所改善充滿信心。過去三個月，BTC 價格從 27,000 美元飆升至 43,000 美元，漲幅達 60%。 2024年1月2日至3日，比特幣價格兩年來首次突破4.5萬美元。

However, during the entirety of 2023, bitcoin never exceeded $44,800 — 35% below its all-time high of $69,000.

然而，在 2023 年全年，比特幣從未超過 44,800 美元，比歷史高點 69,000 美元低了 35%。

Bitcoin certainly never got close to $175,000 in 2023, as Defitology predicted in August 2022. It didn’t even regain its $69,000 high, as Race Capital predicted.

正如 Defitology 在 2022 年 8 月預測的那樣，比特幣在 2023 年肯定不會接近 175,000 美元。正如 Race Capital 預測的那樣，它甚至沒有重回 69,000 美元的高點。

Failed prediction #2: Bitcoin didn’t collapse, either

失敗的預測#2：比特幣也沒有崩潰

Entrepreneur Nick Huber made a series of financial predictions, including that bitcoin would drop by 50% during 2023. Celebrity bears like il Capo similarly forecasted that bitcoin would crash to $12,000 last year.

企業家尼克·胡貝爾(Nick Huber)做出了一系列金融預測，其中包括比特幣將在2023年下跌50%。像伊爾·卡波(il Capo)這樣的名人空頭同樣預測比特幣去年將跌至12,000美元。

Instead, bitcoin rallied all year.

相反，比特幣全年都在上漲。

My First Million podcaster Shaan Puri even predicted bitcoin would get down to $11,000. Some even said that it would go below $1,000.

My First Million 播客 Shaan Puri 甚至預測比特幣將跌至 11,000 美元。甚至有人表示會跌破1000美元。

Only, Bitcoin started 2023 at $16,530 and ended the year at $42,250 — a respectable rise.

只是，比特幣 2023 年年初價格為 16,530 美元，年底價格為 42,250 美元，漲幅可觀。

Failed prediction #3: More countries didn’t adopt bitcoin

失敗的預測#3：更多國家沒有採用比特幣

Since El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender years ago, many crypto celebrities predicted that 2023 would finally be the year for more countries to follow suit. It wasn’t.

自從薩爾瓦多多年前採用比特幣作為法定貨幣以來，許多加密貨幣名人預測 2023 年最終將成為更多國家效仿的一年。事實並非如此。

Of course, the Central African Republic briefly announced a similar law in April 2022, but backpedaled soon after.

當然，中非共和國曾在 2022 年 4 月短暫宣布了類似的法律，但很快又撤回了。

Master Ventures Capital CIO Tom Dunleavy was among those who predicted that at least one G20 nation, such as Argentina, would buy bitcoin as reserves for its central bank. As 2023 wound down, he admitted that prediction was one of a few “complete whiffs.”

Master Ventures Capital 資訊長 Tom Dunleavy 是預測至少有一個 G20 國家（例如阿根廷）將購買比特幣作為其央行儲備的人之一。隨著 2023 年的臨近，他承認這一預測是少數「徹底的錯誤」之一。

Failed prediction #4: The flippening didn’t happen

失敗的預測#4：翻轉沒有發生

The flippening refers to a hypothetical time in the future when the market capitalization of ether would exceed the market capitalization of bitcoin.

翻轉是指假設在未來某個時間，以太幣的市值將超過比特幣的市值。

Some crypto influencers like Rea.eth hoped that the flippening would occur during 2023. It didn’t.

像 Rea.eth 這樣的一些加密貨幣影響者希望這種轉變能夠在 2023 年發生。但事實並非如此。

To this day, Bitcoin remains more than three times larger than Ethereum.

直到今天，比特幣仍然是以太坊的三倍多。

Failed prediction #5: Application-specific blockchains didn’t become mainstream

失敗的預測#5：特定應用的區塊鏈並未成為主流

In August 2022, tech influencer Alex Valaitus posted about Cosmos (ATOM) and its application-specific blockchains in a tweet thread, suggesting that they could be a better way to improve performance. 

2022 年 8 月，科技影響者 Alex Valaitus 在推文中發布了有關 Cosmos (ATOM) 及其特定應用區塊鏈的信息，暗示它們可能是提高性能的更好方法。

However, on December 27, 2023, he admitted that application-specific blockchains didn’t become mainstream as quickly as he had hoped.

然而，2023 年 12 月 27 日，他承認特定應用區塊鏈並沒有像他希望的那樣迅速成為主流。

Failed prediction #6: Web3 didn’t win

失敗的預測#6：Web3 沒有獲勝

Crypto influencer Alex Zhang predicted that 2023 would see “more meaningful web3 social platforms and protocols.” Other influencers predicted that web3 apps would enjoy substantial progress and broadly decentralize.

加密貨幣影響者 Alex 張預測，2023 年將出現「更有意義的 web3 社群平台和協議」。其他有影響力的人士預測 web3 應用程式將取得實質進展並廣泛去中心化。

Twitter founder Jack Dorsey disagreed. Indeed, most web3 properties didn’t gain much ground in 2023 relative to other crypto sectors. Web3 games had a particularly bad year.

Twitter 創辦人傑克多西 (Jack Dorsey) 不同意這種觀點。事實上，相對於其他加密產業，大多數 web3 資產在 2023 年並沒有取得太大進展。 Web3 遊戲今年的表現尤其糟糕。

Read more: Web3 is the future of the internet — and a16z’s exit liquidity

了解更多：Web3 是網路的未來 — 以及 a16z 的退出流動性

Failed prediction #7: Gary Gensler still chairs the SEC

失敗的預測#7：加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 仍擔任 SEC 主席

Alex Valaitus also predicted that regulation would be a “nothing burger” in 2023. He claimed Gary Gensler would be removed from his role as chair of the SEC. To the contrary, the US government gained the largest-ever fine on a crypto exchange, extracting a whopping $4.3 billion settlement from Binance and forcing Changpeng Zhao (CZ) to step down as CEO.

Alex Valaitus 也預測，到 2023 年，監管將成為「無用漢堡」。他聲稱 Gary Gensler 將被免去 SEC 主席職務。相反，美國政府對加密貨幣交易所處以有史以來最大的罰款，從幣安處獲得了高達 43 億美元的和解金，並迫使趙長鵬 (CZ) 辭去首席執行官職務。

The SEC also scored a partial victory in the Ripple case, gaining Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling that Ripple sold XRP as unregistered securities to certain institutional buyers.

美國證券交易委員會還在 Ripple 案中取得了部分勝利，法官 Analisa Torres 做出了 Ripple 將 XRP 作為未註冊證券出售給某些機構買家的裁決。

However, the commission didn’t get everything it wanted. Torres also ruled that programmatic sales of XRP didn’t necessarily qualify as buyers knowingly entering an investment contract. 

然而，該委員會並沒有得到它想要的一切。托雷斯也裁定，X​​RP 的程序化銷售不一定符合買家故意簽訂投資合約的資格。

Crypto influencers who predicted the downfall of Gensler during 2023 also whiffed. Despite a judge scolding the SEC for making “false and misleading” statements in a small lawsuit regarding Debt Box, and another judge ruling that the SEC failed to coherently explain its position when it rejected Grayscale’s application to convert GBTC into a bitcoin spot ETF, Gensler is still the top commissioner of the SEC.

預測 Gensler 在 2023 年垮台的加密貨幣影響者也對此嗤之以鼻。儘管一名法官斥責SEC 在有關Debt Box 的小規模訴訟中做出「虛假和誤導性」陳述，並且另一名法官裁定SEC 在拒絕Grayscale 將GBTC 轉換為比特幣現貨ETF 的申請時未能連貫地解釋其立場，Gensler仍然是 SEC 的最高專員。

Failed prediction #8: Cosmos didn’t reach the top 10

失敗的預測#8：Cosmos 未進入前 10 名

Tom Dunleavy predicted that Cosmos would join the ranks of the world’s top 10 largest digital assets. He wanted the Cosmos team to release 2.0, resolve problems with tokenomics, and encourage inflows into Cosmos’ Total Value Locked (TVL).

Tom Dunleavy 預測 Cosmos 將躋身全球十大數位資產行列。他希望 Cosmos 團隊發布 2.0，解決代幣經濟問題，並鼓勵資金流入 Cosmos 的總價值鎖定（TVL）。

However, none of these dreams came true during 2023.

然而，這些夢想在 2023 年都沒有實現。

Failed prediction #9: TradFi is still traditional finance

失敗的預測 #9：TradFi 仍然是傳統金融

Much to the dismay of crypto pundits, digital assets failed to supplant traditional finance (TradFi) last year.

令加密貨幣專家感到沮喪的是，數位資產去年未能取代傳統金融（TradFi）。

At press time, less than $2 trillion of the world’s $454 trillion involves crypto.

截至發稿時，全球 454 兆美元中只有不到 2 兆美元涉及加密貨幣。

Failed prediction #10: GBTC hasn’t converted into an ETF

失敗的預測#10：GBTC 尚未轉換為 ETF

Corey Bates predicted the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF during 2023. It still could happen sometime soon. However, it didn’t happen in 2023.

Corey Bates 預測灰階比特幣信託基金 (GBTC) 將在 2023 年轉換為 ETF。這可能很快就會發生。然而，這在 2023 年並沒有發生。

Read more: Barry Silbert’s Grayscale wants GBTC to commingle bitcoin ‘from time to time’

閱讀更多：Barry Silbert 的 Grayscale 希望 GBTC “時不時”混合比特幣

Failed prediction #11: Fast food restaurants didn’t accept bitcoin

失敗的預測#11：快餐店不接受比特幣

Cory Bates also predicted that fast food chains, specifically Wendy’s and Chipotle, would accept Bitcoin as a form of payment. He thought thousands of vendors would integrate the Lightning Network. However, that didn’t quite happen.

科里·貝茨還預測，快餐連鎖店，特別是 Wendy's 和 Chipotle，將接受比特幣作為支付方式。他認為數千家供應商將整合閃電網路。然而，這並沒有完全發生。

Failed prediction #12: Twitter didn’t integrate Dogecoin

失敗的預測#12：Twitter 沒有整合狗狗幣

Many Dogecoin holders thought that X (formerly Twitter) would unveil its Dogecoin integration during 2023. Elon Musk delayed that announcement.

許多狗狗幣持有者認為 X（以前的 Twitter）將在 2023 年期間公佈其狗狗幣整合。伊隆馬斯克推遲了這項宣布。

X gained a handful of state-level payment processor licenses during 2023, but it didn’t roll out its native digital asset payment processing app as Cory Bates predicted.

X 在 2023 年獲得了一些州級支付處理器許可證，但它並沒有像 Cory Bates 預測的那樣推出其原生數位資產支付處理應用程式。

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