Will DOGE reach $1 this cycle? It's a 'crapshoot,' say analysts

With the rising number of memecoins entering the market, Dogecoin’s (DOGE) strong community could keep the cryptocurrency from fading into obscurity, but analysts are skeptical of traders' hopes that it could reach a price of one-dollar this cycle.

A one-dollar price tag would represent a 36% increase from Dogecoin’s May 2021 all-time high of $0.73 and a 525% increase from today’s price of $0.16.

Over the last week, DOGE posted a 2.58% gain — significantly less growth when compared to other large-cap memecoins within the same timeframe, per CoinMarketCap data.

The next three largest memecoins by market capitalization all experienced notable upside price action in the last seven days, with PEPE (PEPE) up 43%, Shiba Inu (SHIB) up 17.42%, and Dogwifhat (WIF) gaining 14.43%.

“DOGE is one of the most cyclical altcoins in the space,” pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital told Cointelegraph, adding that the rising popularity of other memecoins shouldn’t have a major impact on investor sentiment towards the largest memecoin.

“Other meme coins launching doesn’t mean DOGE will suffer,” Rekt added.

Pav Hundal, the lead analyst for Australian crypto exchange Swyftx offered a more skeptical position, saying that while DOGE has a “huge community of users,” any sharp spikes in price may lead to a significant sell-off from long-term holders.

“A lot will depend on the decision-making of the millions of minnow investors who bought DOGE in 2021 and right now are sitting on paper losses,” Hundal told Cointelegraph, suggesting it’s uncertain whether the price will hit a dollar before the potential sell-off:

“It’s a crapshoot. If most of these people decide to take quick profits during the cycle, you could start to see selling pressure ratchet up.”

Hundal added that Dogecoin is not “seeing the deep books of the last cycle.” In the derivatives market alone it has seen a 56% drop in Open Interest (OI) since the beginning of April.

OI in Doge— which measures the total value of all outstanding or unsettled DOGE futures contracts across exchanges — has declined from $2.15 billion on April 1 to its current level of $928.72 million, per CoinGlass data.

Despite the decline in derivatives activity for the memecoin, Rekt Capital argued that the “cyclicality in DOGE’s chart,” suggests that Dogecoin will still “most probably” reach a price of one dollar this cycle.

He reiterated that Dogecoin comes packed with “historical heritage” and has largely predictable cycles, which traders point out frequently on social media.

Pseudonymous trader Blockchain Mane told his 15,300 X followers in an April 24 post that looking at past data, DOGE usually sees price growth during the month of May.

Rekt also looked to potential social media posts from billionaire Elon Musk as a price catalyst, asserting that Musk is still “very interested in Dogecoin.”

Since April 17, Musk has been interacting regularly with the well-known DOGE influencer DogeDesigner on X.

In April 2023, Musk requested a United States judge to dismiss a $258 billion lawsuit brought against him by investors alleging he operated a pyramid scheme to promote Dogecoin. Although, Musk has recently hinted that his interest in crypto may have waned slightly.

“I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about cryptocurrency. Hardly any at all,” Musk told Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood in an X space on Dec. 2023.

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