With the rising number of memecoins entering the market, Dogecoin’s (DOGE) strong community could keep the cryptocurrency from fading into obscurity, but analysts are skeptical of traders' hopes that it could reach a price of one-dollar this cycle.

随着进入市场的模因币数量不断增加，狗狗币 (DOGE) 强大的社区可能会阻止这种加密货币变得默默无闻，但分析师对交易员希望它在本周期达到一美元价格的希望表示怀疑。

A one-dollar price tag would represent a 36% increase from Dogecoin’s May 2021 all-time high of $0.73 and a 525% increase from today’s price of $0.16.

1 美元的价格意味着狗狗币较 2021 年 5 月的历史高点 0.73 美元上涨 36%，较目前的 0.16 美元上涨 525%。

Over the last week, DOGE posted a 2.58% gain — significantly less growth when compared to other large-cap memecoins within the same timeframe, per CoinMarketCap data.

根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上周 DOGE 上涨了 2.58%，与同一时间范围内的其他大盘 memecoin 相比，涨幅明显较小。

The next three largest memecoins by market capitalization all experienced notable upside price action in the last seven days, with PEPE (PEPE) up 43%, Shiba Inu (SHIB) up 17.42%, and Dogwifhat (WIF) gaining 14.43%.

按市值计算，紧随其后的三个 memecoin 在过去 7 天内都经历了显着的价格上涨，其中 PEPE (PEPE) 上涨 43%，Shiba Inu (SHIB) 上涨 17.42%，Dogwifhat (WIF) 上涨 14.43%。

“DOGE is one of the most cyclical altcoins in the space,” pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital told Cointelegraph, adding that the rising popularity of other memecoins shouldn’t have a major impact on investor sentiment towards the largest memecoin.

匿名交易员 Rekt Capital 告诉 Cointelegraph：“DOGE 是该领域最具周期性的山寨币之一。”他补充说，其他 memecoin 的日益受欢迎不应对投资者对最大 memecoin 的情绪产生重大影响。

“Other meme coins launching doesn’t mean DOGE will suffer,” Rekt added.

“其他模因币的推出并不意味着 DOGE 会受到影响，”Rekt 补充道。

Pav Hundal, the lead analyst for Australian crypto exchange Swyftx offered a more skeptical position, saying that while DOGE has a “huge community of users,” any sharp spikes in price may lead to a significant sell-off from long-term holders.

澳大利亚加密货币交易所 Swyftx 的首席分析师 Pav Hundal 则持更为怀疑的态度，他表示，虽然 DOGE 拥有“庞大的用户社区”，但任何价格的大幅上涨都可能导致长期持有者的大幅抛售。

“A lot will depend on the decision-making of the millions of minnow investors who bought DOGE in 2021 and right now are sitting on paper losses,” Hundal told Cointelegraph, suggesting it’s uncertain whether the price will hit a dollar before the potential sell-off:

Hundal 向 Cointelegraph 表示：“这很大程度上取决于数百万在 2021 年购买 DOGE 的小投资者的决策，但目前他们正面临账面亏损。”他表示，在潜在抛售之前，不确定价格是否会达到 1 美元。离开：

“It’s a crapshoot. If most of these people decide to take quick profits during the cycle, you could start to see selling pressure ratchet up.”

“这是一个废话。如果这些人中的大多数决定在周期内快速获利，你可能会开始看到抛售压力加剧。”

Hundal added that Dogecoin is not “seeing the deep books of the last cycle.” In the derivatives market alone it has seen a 56% drop in Open Interest (OI) since the beginning of April.

Hundal 补充说，狗狗币并没有“看到上一个周期的深奥书籍”。自 4 月初以来，仅衍生品市场的未平仓合约 (OI) 就下降了 56%。

OI in Doge— which measures the total value of all outstanding or unsettled DOGE futures contracts across exchanges — has declined from $2.15 billion on April 1 to its current level of $928.72 million, per CoinGlass data.

根据 CoinGlass 的数据，Doge 的 OI（衡量各交易所所有未结算或未结算的 DOGE 期货合约的总价值）已从 4 月 1 日的 21.5 亿美元下降至目前的 9.2872 亿美元。

Related: Is Dogecoin copying the 2020 fractal that sent DOGE price soaring 15,800%?

相关：狗狗币是否复制了 2020 年导致 DOGE 价格飙升 15,800% 的分形？

Despite the decline in derivatives activity for the memecoin, Rekt Capital argued that the “cyclicality in DOGE’s chart,” suggests that Dogecoin will still “most probably” reach a price of one dollar this cycle.

尽管 memecoin 的衍生品活动有所下降，但 Rekt Capital 认为，“DOGE 图表中的周期性”表明，Dogecoin 在本周期中“最有可能”达到 1 美元的价格。

He reiterated that Dogecoin comes packed with “historical heritage” and has largely predictable cycles, which traders point out frequently on social media.

他重申，狗狗币充满了“历史遗产”，并且具有基本上可预测的周期，交易员经常在社交媒体上指出这一点。

Pseudonymous trader Blockchain Mane told his 15,300 X followers in an April 24 post that looking at past data, DOGE usually sees price growth during the month of May.

匿名交易员 Blockchain Mane 在 4 月 24 日的一篇帖子中告诉他的 15,300 X 粉丝，从过去的数据来看，DOGE 通常会看到 5 月份的价格上涨。

Rekt also looked to potential social media posts from billionaire Elon Musk as a price catalyst, asserting that Musk is still “very interested in Dogecoin.”

Rekt 还将亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 潜在的社交媒体帖子视为价格催化剂，声称马斯克仍然“对狗狗币非常感兴趣”。

Since April 17, Musk has been interacting regularly with the well-known DOGE influencer DogeDesigner on X.

自4月17日以来，马斯克一直在X上与知名DOGE网红DogeDesigner定期互动。

In April 2023, Musk requested a United States judge to dismiss a $258 billion lawsuit brought against him by investors alleging he operated a pyramid scheme to promote Dogecoin. Although, Musk has recently hinted that his interest in crypto may have waned slightly.

2023 年 4 月，马斯克请求美国法官驳回投资者针对他提起的价值 2580 亿美元的诉讼，指控他经营传销活动以推广狗狗币。尽管如此，马斯克最近暗示他对加密货币的兴趣可能略有减弱。

“I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about cryptocurrency. Hardly any at all,” Musk told Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood in an X space on Dec. 2023.

“我不会花很多时间思考加密货币。几乎没有。”2023 年 12 月，马斯克在 X 空间对 Ark Invest 首席执行官 Cathie Wood 说道。

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