With the rising number of memecoins entering the market, Dogecoin’s (DOGE) strong community could keep the cryptocurrency from fading into obscurity, but analysts are skeptical of traders' hopes that it could reach a price of one-dollar this cycle.

隨著進入市場的迷因幣數量不斷增加，狗狗幣(DOGE) 強大的社群可能會阻止這種加密貨幣變得默默無聞，但分析師對交易員希望它在本週期達到一美元價格的希望表示懷疑。

A one-dollar price tag would represent a 36% increase from Dogecoin’s May 2021 all-time high of $0.73 and a 525% increase from today’s price of $0.16.

1 美元的價格意味著狗狗幣較 2021 年 5 月的歷史高點 0.73 美元上漲 36%，較目前的 0.16 美元上漲 525%。

Over the last week, DOGE posted a 2.58% gain — significantly less growth when compared to other large-cap memecoins within the same timeframe, per CoinMarketCap data.

根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據，上週 DOGE 上漲了 2.58%，與同一時間範圍內的其他大盤 memecoin 相比，漲幅明顯較小。

The next three largest memecoins by market capitalization all experienced notable upside price action in the last seven days, with PEPE (PEPE) up 43%, Shiba Inu (SHIB) up 17.42%, and Dogwifhat (WIF) gaining 14.43%.

以市值計算，緊隨其後的三個memecoin 在過去7 天內都經歷了顯著的價格上漲，其中PEPE (PEPE) 上漲43%，Shiba Inu (SHIB) 上漲17.42%，Dogwifhat (WIF) 上漲14.43% 。

“DOGE is one of the most cyclical altcoins in the space,” pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital told Cointelegraph, adding that the rising popularity of other memecoins shouldn’t have a major impact on investor sentiment towards the largest memecoin.

匿名交易員 Rekt Capital 告訴 Cointelegraph：「DOGE 是該領域最具週期性的山寨幣之一。」他補充說，其他 memecoin 的日益受歡迎不應對投資者對最大 memecoin 的情緒產生重大影響。

“Other meme coins launching doesn’t mean DOGE will suffer,” Rekt added.

「其他模因幣的推出並不意味著 DOGE 會受到影響，」Rekt 補充道。

Pav Hundal, the lead analyst for Australian crypto exchange Swyftx offered a more skeptical position, saying that while DOGE has a “huge community of users,” any sharp spikes in price may lead to a significant sell-off from long-term holders.

澳洲加密貨幣交易所 Swyftx 的首席分析師 Pav Hundal 則持更為懷疑的態度，他表示，雖然 DOGE 擁有“龐大的用戶社區”，但任何價格的大幅上漲都可能導致長期持有者的大幅拋售。

“A lot will depend on the decision-making of the millions of minnow investors who bought DOGE in 2021 and right now are sitting on paper losses,” Hundal told Cointelegraph, suggesting it’s uncertain whether the price will hit a dollar before the potential sell-off:

Hundal 向Cointelegraph 表示：「這很大程度上取決於數百萬在2021 年購買DOGE 的小投資者的決策，但目前他們正面臨帳面虧損。」他表示，在潛在拋售之前，不確定價格是否會達到1 美元。

“It’s a crapshoot. If most of these people decide to take quick profits during the cycle, you could start to see selling pressure ratchet up.”

「這是一個廢話。如果這些人中的大多數決定在周期內快速獲利，你可能會開始看到拋售壓力加劇。

Hundal added that Dogecoin is not “seeing the deep books of the last cycle.” In the derivatives market alone it has seen a 56% drop in Open Interest (OI) since the beginning of April.

Hundal 補充說，狗狗幣並沒有「看到上一個週期的深奧書籍」。自 4 月初以來，僅衍生性商品市場的未平倉合約 (OI) 就下降了 56%。

OI in Doge— which measures the total value of all outstanding or unsettled DOGE futures contracts across exchanges — has declined from $2.15 billion on April 1 to its current level of $928.72 million, per CoinGlass data.

根據 CoinGlass 的數據，Doge 的 OI（衡量各交易所所有未結算或未結算的 DOGE 期貨合約的總價值）已從 4 月 1 日的 21.5 億美元下降至目前的 9.2872 億美元。

Related: Is Dogecoin copying the 2020 fractal that sent DOGE price soaring 15,800%?

相關：狗狗幣是否複製了 2020 年導致 DOGE 價格飆升 15,800% 的分形？

Despite the decline in derivatives activity for the memecoin, Rekt Capital argued that the “cyclicality in DOGE’s chart,” suggests that Dogecoin will still “most probably” reach a price of one dollar this cycle.

儘管 memecoin 的衍生性活動有所下降，但 Rekt Capital 認為，「DOGE 圖表中的週期性」表明，Dogecoin 在本週期中「最有可能」達到 1 美元的價格。

He reiterated that Dogecoin comes packed with “historical heritage” and has largely predictable cycles, which traders point out frequently on social media.

他重申，狗狗幣充滿了“歷史遺產”，並且具有基本上可預測的周期，交易員經常在社交媒體上指出這一點。

Pseudonymous trader Blockchain Mane told his 15,300 X followers in an April 24 post that looking at past data, DOGE usually sees price growth during the month of May.

匿名交易員 Blockchain Mane 在 4 月 24 日的一篇貼文中告訴他的 15,300 X 粉絲，從過去的數據來看，DOGE 通常會看到 5 月的價格上漲。

Rekt also looked to potential social media posts from billionaire Elon Musk as a price catalyst, asserting that Musk is still “very interested in Dogecoin.”

Rekt 還將億萬富翁 Elon Musk 潛在的社交媒體貼文視為價格催化劑，聲稱馬斯克仍然「對狗狗幣非常感興趣」。

Since April 17, Musk has been interacting regularly with the well-known DOGE influencer DogeDesigner on X.

自4月17日以來，馬斯克一直在X上與知名DOGE網紅DogeDesigner定期互動。

In April 2023, Musk requested a United States judge to dismiss a $258 billion lawsuit brought against him by investors alleging he operated a pyramid scheme to promote Dogecoin. Although, Musk has recently hinted that his interest in crypto may have waned slightly.

2023 年 4 月，馬斯克請求美國法官駁回投資者針對他提起的價值 2,580 億美元的訴訟，指控他經營傳銷活動以推廣狗狗幣。儘管如此，馬斯克最近暗示他對加密貨幣的興趣可能略有減弱。

“I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about cryptocurrency. Hardly any at all,” Musk told Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood in an X space on Dec. 2023.

「我不會花很多時間思考加密貨幣。幾乎沒有。

Magazine: ChainLinkGod was in High School when he started the account! X Hall of Flame

雜誌：ChainLinkGod 開戶時還在高中！ X 火焰大廳