Dogecoin ETF: Could Trump’s Inauguration Change the Game?

Dogecoin ETF Approval: Polymarket Odds and Potential Impact

Dogecoin (DOGE), the prominent memecoin, has witnessed remarkable performance since 2025. With Donald Trump's recent inauguration, speculations regarding a Dogecoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) have intensified.

Probability of a DOGE ETF in 2025

According to Polymarket, the odds of a DOGE ETF approval in 2025 are currently estimated at 36%, lower than the 70% odds for an XRP ETF. This disparity may stem from market preferences for utility-driven assets.

Factors Influencing Approval

Despite its popularity, DOGE's high volatility and lack of inherent utility raise concerns among some analysts. However, the emergence of a pro-cryptocurrency administration led by Donald Trump may pave the way for favorable regulations. The appointment of Elon Musk as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) is seen as a potential catalyst for Dogecoin's government-backed recognition.

Market Impact of a DOGE ETF

Analysts believe that a DOGE ETF could drive the price higher, as witnessed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024. However, the ultimate decision rests with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has not yet commented on the matter.

Current Market Dynamics

Dogecoin's bullish trajectory continues, with an 8.2% surge in the past 24 hours, pushing its market capitalization to over $61 billion and ranking it as the seventh-largest cryptocurrency. Onchain analyst Ali Martinez predicts a potential price target of $20 in the coming years. While this may seem ambitious, an ETF approval could accelerate progress towards that milestone.