Dogecoin ETF Approval: Polymarket Odds and Potential Impact

狗狗幣 ETF 批准：Polymarket 賠率和潛在影響

Dogecoin (DOGE), the prominent memecoin, has witnessed remarkable performance since 2025. With Donald Trump's recent inauguration, speculations regarding a Dogecoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) have intensified.

狗狗幣（DOGE）是著名的迷因幣，自 2025 年以來表現出色。

Probability of a DOGE ETF in 2025

2025 年 DOGE ETF 出現的可能性

According to Polymarket, the odds of a DOGE ETF approval in 2025 are currently estimated at 36%, lower than the 70% odds for an XRP ETF. This disparity may stem from market preferences for utility-driven assets.

根據 Polymarket 的數據，DOGE ETF 在 2025 年獲得批准的幾率目前估計為 36%，低於 XRP ETF 70% 的幾率。這種差異可能源自於市場對公用事業驅動資產的偏好。

Factors Influencing Approval

影響批准的因素

Despite its popularity, DOGE's high volatility and lack of inherent utility raise concerns among some analysts. However, the emergence of a pro-cryptocurrency administration led by Donald Trump may pave the way for favorable regulations. The appointment of Elon Musk as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) is seen as a potential catalyst for Dogecoin's government-backed recognition.

儘管 DOGE 很受歡迎，但其高波動性和缺乏內在效用引起了一些分析師的擔憂。然而，唐納德·川普領導的支持加密貨幣的政府的出現可能為有利的監管鋪平道路。任命伊隆馬斯克為政府效率部 (D.O.G.E.) 負責人被視為狗狗幣獲得政府支持認可的潛在催化劑。

Market Impact of a DOGE ETF

DOGE ETF 的市場影響

Analysts believe that a DOGE ETF could drive the price higher, as witnessed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024. However, the ultimate decision rests with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has not yet commented on the matter.

分析師認為，DOGE ETF 可能會推高價格，正如 2024 年比特幣和以太坊 ETF 所證明的那樣。

Current Market Dynamics

當前市場動態

Dogecoin's bullish trajectory continues, with an 8.2% surge in the past 24 hours, pushing its market capitalization to over $61 billion and ranking it as the seventh-largest cryptocurrency. Onchain analyst Ali Martinez predicts a potential price target of $20 in the coming years. While this may seem ambitious, an ETF approval could accelerate progress towards that milestone.

狗狗幣的看漲軌跡仍在繼續，過去 24 小時內飆升 8.2%，使其市值突破 610 億美元，成為第七大加密貨幣。 Onchain 分析師 Ali Martinez 預測未來幾年的潛在目標價格為 20 美元。雖然這似乎很雄心勃勃，但 ETF 的批准可能會加速實現這一里程碑的進程。